A debate between righteousness and evil

There is an interesting story developing in the Kaohsiung legislative races that could turn out to be nothing, but it also has the potential to reshape the presidential race.

Chiu Yi 邱毅, who is the KMT candidate in Kaohsiung 7, has challenged Chen Chih-chung 陳致中, who is running next door in Kaohsiung 9, to a debate over the presidential race.  Chen is, of course, the former president’s son.  It really doesn’t matter that Chen is not Chiu’s actual opponent or even a member of the DPP.  Because of who his father is, Chen is simply an irresistible target for Chiu.  Keep in mind that, depending on your point of view, Chiu is either the second[1] most shameless, scurrilous, and evil attack dog in the blue camp or the second most fearless, relentless, and sharp-witted person dedicated to rooting out the numerous wrongdoings of the green camp.  He was a thorn in the side of President Chen, to say the least.  Inevitably, Chiu is billing the debate as a contest between righteousness and evil.[2]  It isn’t clear that the debate will actually be held since the local police have refused to grant a permit, citing the possibility of violence.  Chiu predictably responded by accusing the DPP mayor of refusing to allow the event because she is too cowardly.

You can look at this from the narrow local perspective or from the broad national perspective.

From the local perspective, this is a brilliant campaign stunt designed to get some publicity.  The presidential race is sucking all the oxygen out of the legislative races, and the candidates are desperate to grab voters’ attention.  The fact that these two aren’t competing against each other is irrelevant; lots of voters would pay attention if these two went at each others’ throats.  This kind of ploy used to happen all the time in the old electoral system, especially in Kaohsiung.  Two candidates on opposite sides of the political spectrum would single each other out and rip mercilessly into each other.  Of course, they didn’t compete for votes at all.  The idea was to focus attention on themselves and create the impression that the way for supporters to punish that jerk on the other side was to vote for the hero on your side.  1986, 1989, and 1992 saw three intense campaigns between two women, the rich and powerful Wu De-mei[3] 吳德美 and the decidedly blue-collar Hsu Hsiao-dan 許曉丹.  Hsu claimed that she didn’t have the money or any significant party support[4] to fight Wu, so she scandalously attracted voters to her events by stripping naked at her rallies.  The media loved it, painting Wu as the evil villain and Hsu as the amoral temptress.  Wu won all three times, and Hsu lost by a thread (pun intended) each time.  In 1995, there was an intense campaign between the DPP’s Chu Hsing-yu 朱星羽, who was often described as “grassroots,” and the New Party’s Chu Kao-cheng 朱高正, who was nicknamed Rambo back in the 1980s since he was always the first person starting fistfights in the legislature.  I have a memory of Chu Hsing-yu showing up outside Chu Kao-cheng’s headquarters in an old surplus army tank.[5]  They both won.

There is a problem with trying to reprise this strategy.  The current electoral system has single-member districts, not the old multi-member districts.  Under the old system, a radical could win.  Today, if Chiu tries to radicalize the campaign, he will likely harm his prospects by driving away moderates.  Chiu’s district will probably have a clear DPP advantage in the presidential election, so he needs to win votes from the other side if he wants to be re-elected.  Chen’s situation is a bit different.  His district is a very strong DPP district, but he is competing for the green vote with the official DPP nominee.  He could benefit by painting himself as the victim of KMT bullying.  Voters might decide to punish Chiu by voting for Chen, inadvertently hurting the DPP nominee or throwing the race to the KMT candidate.

Chiu Yi might simply be running a spirited race, but I think it is more likely that he realizes he is fighting a lost cause in his district and his real goal concerns national politics.  This gambit probably terrifies the DPP.  The DPP does NOT want to talk about the former president at all.  Anything that brings him back into the political discussion is bad for them.  The KMT, of course, would love to be able to run against Chen Shui-bian again, but that attack is not sticking so far this year.  Tsai’s personality is nothing like Chen’s, Chen is muzzled in prison, and his son, like every other legislative candidate, has been ignored.  This is just fine with the Tsai campaign.  If Chiu Yi can manage to put the spotlight on Chen Shui-bian, he will have done a great service to the Ma campaign.

There is also a real danger that any debate would erupt into violence.  The audience would consist of Chiu’s radical supporters and Chen’s radical supporters.  Putting those two groups together in a politically charged atmosphere is a recipe for disaster.  The DPP is terrified that any violence will be blamed on them, as it always seems to be.[6]  In fact, a cynic might wonder if that is precisely the intent.

I rather hope that this debate between black and white never comes to fruition.  I think we’re better off when our options are light grey and dark grey.  However, if the debate is held, it has the potential to shock the entire election.

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[1] Lin Reui-tu 林瑞圖.

[2] Chiu would almost certainly rip Chen to shreds.  Chen is a campaign novice, while Chiu hones his razor-sharp tongue nearly every night in the rough and tumble world of TV talk shows.

[3] Wu was married to Chu An-hsiung 朱安雄.  The Chu family was one of the four great local families in Kaohsiung politics in the late authoritarian era.  Chu was convicted of corruption about a decade ago.

[4] She was a member of the long-forgotten Labor Party.

[5] That can’t be right, can it?  Can you obtain a surplus army tank in Taiwan?

[6] The facts that neither Chen nor Chiu is a DPP member and that the KMT’s Chiu is the one trying to create this potentially dangerous event won’t matter.  If there is violence, DPP mayor Chen Chu will be blamed and Tsai’s campaign will suffer.  I don’t know how this works, but it always works that way.

TVBS poll on Kaohsiung 9

So far, I have only seen one poll on a specific legislative race.  No suprises: it is Kaohsiung 9, the district in which Chen Chih-chung 陳致中, the former president’s son, is running.

Kaohsiung 9 is a strong green district.  Four years ago, Kuo Wen-cheng 郭玟成 of the DPP won this district by 6% (or about 8000 votes).  Of course, 2008 was a terrible year for the DPP.  Last year, Chen Chu 陳菊 won about 58% in this district (or about 30000 votes over the combined vote of the other two candidates).[1]  This year, Kuo is running for re-election as the DPP nominee against the same KMT candidate, Lin Kuo-cheng 林國正.  In a two way race, we might expect Kuo to win re-election rather easily.  However, with Chen in the race, it is a different story.  Chen’s vote should presumably come entirely from Kuo’s support, so there is a real chance that Chen’s entrance in the race could allow Lin to win.

Of course, most people are not really interested in Kuo and Lin or even about the younger Chen.  We care about this race primarily because of what it tells us about how much support the former president still has in Taiwan.  Will Chen Shui-bian (CSB) continue to be a major presence lurking over the political scene, or have his supporters already moved on?

Fortunately, we have some very interesting poll data.  TVBS released a poll, conducted between Sept 1-5, with sample size n=804.  (Once again, Frozen Garlic is here to provide you with an instant reaction two months later!)  TVBS asked how voters would vote in a three way race, in a two way race if Chen dropped out, and in a two way race if Kuo dropped out.  Here are the results:

 

	Lin	Kuo	Chen	DK
3 way	33	34	14	19
2 way, Chen out	38	51		12
2 way, Kuo out	56		29	16

 

In a two way race between the KMT and DPP, the DPP wins easily, as expected.  However, when Chen enters, things change.  Chen doesn’t have anywhere near enough support to win, but he does draw off just enough support from Kuo to leave the top two candidates roughly tied.  Most stunning, if Kuo were to yield, Lin would win in a landslide over Chen.  Of the voters who support Kuo in the three way race, far more would choose to support the KMT candidate over the ex-president’s son.  Presumably, these people are overwhelmingly green supporters and will probably vote overwhelmingly for Tsai Ing-wen over Ma Ying-jeou.  This might be the clearest rejection of CSB that I have seen thus far.  He is being rejected by green supporters in the deep south.  He clearly has a hard core of supporters, but the mainstream has not only found new champions, they clearly do not want him back at all.

I don’t know what the Kuo campaign has planned, but it seems to me that they ought to make sure that voters see a lot of poll results like this.  I don’t know if the media will publish any more polls on this race.  If they don’t there are not many more cost effective paths to victory than blowing a bit of change commissioning your own polls.  Certainly, he should be able to convince the DPP polling center to do a poll.  Many voters might be wary of poll results coming from the DPP, but Kuo is trying to communicate with voters who support the DPP and are more likely to believe that the DPP polls are honest and fair.

Finally, a little note on reading poll results.  We generally think of voters and candidates lining up on one dimension, so let’s put the independence people on the left and the unification people on the right.  Chen should be at the far left end of the spectrum, Kuo in the center left, and Lin in the center right.  If Chen drops out of the race all of his supporters should go to Kuo.  (Equivalently, all of Chen’s support is stolen from Kuo.)  So it is commonly believed that you can simply add Chen’s and Kuo’s support to get the green support.  Unfortunately, reality is a bit messier.  People don’t really all line up on one dimension, and some people have strange, seemingly illogical explanations for their vote.  So when Chen (and his 14%) drops out, somehow Lin’s support goes up by 5%.  In fact, this isn’t necessarily because Chen’s supporters turned to Lin, because Kuo goes up by 17%.  What happens is really that far fewer people are undecided.  Apparently, it is much easier to make a decision in a two way race.  However, that also doesn’t make much sense.  We can imagine people who are undecided between Chen and Kuo having a much easier time deciding how to vote when only one is in the race, but these results seem to imply that there are also a chunk of people undecided between Chen and Lin, who are on opposite sides of the spectrum.  In fact, the TVBS report also indicates that there are some people who support Chen in the first situation but Lin in the second.  The point of all this is that these results are messy.  Moreover, this is NORMAL.  You can never simply add two candidates’ support together and assume that is what one would get if the other dropped out.  1+1 never quite equals two.  Keep all this in mind the next time you read a poll and think about what all those Soong supporters will eventually do.  We like clean and simple assumptions, but real life is messy.

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[1] This is a quick and dirty number.  Kaohsiung 9 includes all of Xiaogang District and most of Qianzhen.  However, about a sixth of the population in Qianzhen is in District 8, so it takes a bit of work to figure out exactly how the mayoral vote breaks out into the legislative districts.