2008 president

2008 Presidential Election

Election date:

Pat Says:
December 21, 2011 at 6:25 am | Reply
So, with the exception of the aftereffect of a scandal, TVBS had Ma up by 20-25% the last month of the campaign, usually closer to 25%. Since the actual margin wound up being 17.5%, should we estimate current polls are overprojecting him by 5%, too?
frozengarlic Says:
December 21, 2011 at 2:44 pm | Reply
I don’t think so. No one quite knows how to translate poll numbers into votes. Every election is a different soap opera. I have a notion (which is quite undeveloped right now) that the “demoralized” side is systematically underrepresented in polls. In 2008, the DPP was the demoralized side. So you might think of Hsieh as being underprojected by about 5% rather than Ma being overestimated. Last year in Taipei City, Hau Lung-pin was the one who was underrepresented. In this year’s presidential race, the DPP is more enthusiastic, but I wouldn’t consider the KMT demoralized to the point that their supporters might not be willing to express support to a pollster. That is, I don’t think a lot of voters will be cursing or crying as they vote for the side that they simply have to support even though their side is doing a lousy job.

Or, to give a shorter answer, I think the polls might be neutral this year.

Frozen Garlic