2008 president

2008 Presidential Election

Election date:

Date Ma Ying-jeou

馬英九

KMT

Frank Hsieh

謝長廷

DPP

Don’t know N agency
3-20 53 31 16 975 TVBS
3-19 52 30 18 1138 TVBS
3-18 50 31 19 1170 TVBS
3-17 54 28 18 1058 TVBS
3-14 51 29 20 847 TVBS
3-13 47 32 21 989 TVBS
3-12 47 30 23 764 TVBS
3-11 54 29 17 1192 TVBS
3-10 53 29 18 965 TVBS
3-9 50 31 19 917 TVBS
3-7 54 28 18 1112 TVBS
2-29 54 30 16 1264 TVBS
2-24 49 29 22 986 TVBS
2-22 53 31 17 1103 TVBS
2-15 53 29 19 945 TVBS
1-31 56 30 14 1293 TVBS
1-29 53 26 20 1073 TVBS
1-15 56 26 18 1017 TVBS
9-19-2007 53 30 17 1036 TVBS
8-28-2007 54 32 15 1078 TVBS
8-15-2007 51 30 19 1055 TVBS
8-2-2007 47 28 25 1007 TVBS
7-11-2007 44 20 36 1127 TVBS
5-22-2007 50 25 25 1169 TVBS
5-4-2007 50 29 22 1210 TVBS
1-29-2007 60 20 20 950 TVBS

 

 

2 Responses to “2008 president”

  1. Pat Says:

    So, with the exception of the aftereffect of a scandal, TVBS had Ma up by 20-25% the last month of the campaign, usually closer to 25%. Since the actual margin wound up being 17.5%, should we estimate current polls are overprojecting him by 5%, too?

  2. frozengarlic Says:

    I don’t think so. No one quite knows how to translate poll numbers into votes. Every election is a different soap opera. I have a notion (which is quite undeveloped right now) that the “demoralized” side is systematically underrepresented in polls. In 2008, the DPP was the demoralized side. So you might think of Hsieh as being underprojected by about 5% rather than Ma being overestimated. Last year in Taipei City, Hau Lung-pin was the one who was underrepresented. In this year’s presidential race, the DPP is more enthusiastic, but I wouldn’t consider the KMT demoralized to the point that their supporters might not be willing to express support to a pollster. That is, I don’t think a lot of voters will be cursing or crying as they vote for the side that they simply have to support even though their side is doing a lousy job.

    Or, to give a shorter answer, I think the polls might be neutral this year.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: