This is unbelievable. The CEC’s plan for Hsinchu County is terrible. Remember, Hsinchu County just increased from one to two seats, so they are not even maintaining an old district that has grown unbalanced. They are designing a brand-new uneven districting plan. The CEC doesn’t care at all about equal populations. This is inexcusable.
The gory details. Hsinchu County has 13 towns. The current plan is as follows:
| District 1 | 竹北市 | 181419 | 312702 |
| 新豐鄉 | 56800 | (+17.9%) | |
| 湖口鄉 | 77500 | ||
| . | |||
| District 2 | Other 10 towns | 217712 | 217712 |
| (-17.9%) |
Could I do significantly better without violating the sanctity of township district lines, geographical contiguity, traffic patterns, and the rest? Yes, it took me about 5 seconds to figure this out.
| District 1 | 竹北市 | 181419 | 236461 |
| 新豐鄉 | 56800 | (-10.8%) | |
| . | |||
| District 2 | Other 10 towns | 217712 | 293953 |
| 湖口鄉 | 77500 | (+10.8%) |
Please note that most of the growth in Hsinchu County is concentrated in 竹北市, so the current plan will get worse and worse over the next decade. My revised plan would get more and more equal over the next decade.
This one isn’t hard. It’s supposed to be the Central Election Commission’s job to do common sense policy like this.
What the hell is wrong here?
Frozen Garlic 
June 1, 2018 at 6:50 am |
By adding 湖口 in District I, DPP is…less likely to win in both District 1 and 2
https://wearytolove.shinyapps.io/Hsinchu2018/
June 2, 2018 at 6:47 am |
I think this is a compromise between equality and traditional political landscape. Traditionally Hsinchu county consists of two political (and geological too) regions 溪南 and 溪北 （separated by 鳳山溪）溪北 consists of 竹北、新豐、湖口、關西、新埔。關西 and 新埔 were unbundled in this mapping I guess becuase they are geologically more close to 溪南. But if we take out 新豐 too then I think there will definitely be local politicians crying foul.
And of course, CEC shouldn’t take this into consideration but you never know.
June 3, 2018 at 10:07 pm |
Thanks for the added context. I would be all for keeping the traditional regions together if they could do so without violating equal populations. It would have been great to keep all the traditional Hakka areas in Miaoli together as well. Unfortunately, Hakka areas make up 2/3 of Miaoli, so they had to put some in together with the (traditionally Min-nan) coast. This should be a similar case. Population is first, maintaining whole administrative districts (townships) is second, and all of the traditional groupings are the third priority. Or at least that’s the way I understand the law and the way it was implemented last time.
September 1, 2018 at 9:27 am |
What do you think about Ko’s substantial lead now? Are two other candidates even worse than Lien? (Well, they’re definitely not significantly better). Is Ko the real deal going forward? Does he need an “party” to back him up eventually?
September 1, 2018 at 9:34 am |
Now for things more related to this thread. 林為洲 withdrawn amid pledges and accusation on KMT pulled his chair (wondering what he got in exchange from KMT). Election in Hsinchiu county is getting more and more interesting since this is like a miniature and more urban version of Taipei city election (blue, green and Hsu is backed by Ko by all means). Is it going to be somehow “testing the water” scenario if Ko’s running for President in 2020 or 2024?