I know all of you have been waiting breathlessly for a neatly organized spreadsheet of the presidential and legislative elections broken down by legislative districts, so here it is! Start analyzing, and let me know if you find anything interesting.
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Frozen Garlic 
January 25, 2016 at 8:01 pm |
One titbit gleaned from the data so far: I suggest you abandon all this labour-intensive research on national trends and local factors. Simply look at the voters of Tianzhong, Changhua. They’ve picked the presidential winner in all six elections, and in the last three they’ve been within one percentage point of the final national result (in 2004 they were 1.4 points off). It has a better claim to be the “average Taiwanese town” than any other, I think. Mind you, with the new HSR station, maybe an influx of big city people with their fancy ideas will ruin this glorious monument to ordinariness.
January 26, 2016 at 11:24 am |
I’ve just noticed you have inverted your “藍天綠地” on your website header!
It’s a shame to write that as a first post on your blog.
January 28, 2016 at 7:48 am |
Hi Nathan, do you believe the low turn-out rate of the blue camp in this election are mainly due to deep blue or light blue voters? I heard totally different theories from several KMT insiders and found this an interesting question for the following KMT chairman (so-called) election…Thanks!
January 28, 2016 at 1:57 pm |
The problem with a lack of exit polls is that we’ll never be able to give convincing answers to questions like these. Everyone gets to spout their favorite story, and everyone is sure they are correct.
My own guess is that blue turnout was probably lower than green turnout. However, many pundits are assuming that ALL of the decline in turnout came from the blue camp, and I think this is wrong. Green voters also knew that Tsai would win easily, and many of them might have decided to take the day off.
Among the blue voters who stayed away, my guess is that there wasn’t any clear pattern. Everyone — both deep blue and light blue — in the blue camp seemed angry and disillusioned. This mirrors the decline in KMT party ID over the past few years, in which there wasn’t any obvious pattern. Every demographic group seemed to be bleeding support at just about the same rate.
It would be a lot more obvious how to repair the KMT if I could tell you which group is unhappy. However, the anger seems to be across the board.
January 28, 2016 at 2:34 pm
Great point and something that we discussed on another thread — that Tsai’s win was kind of a foregone conclusion (and no real legislature coverage until the very end), I wouldn’t be surprised that quite a lot of pan greens stayed away from the polls as well.
Also, this being my first election in Taiwan, I was kind of surprised that the polls closed so early. In the US we get 4 additional hours (granted it’s Tuesday instead of Saturday)
January 28, 2016 at 5:01 pm
As far as I can tell, polls have always been 8-4. In most countries, it is more like 7-7. However, the hours have never become a matter of political controversy here. If people don’t think it’s broken, I guess there is no need to fix it. A nice side benefit of the early closing is that the results are all finalized before anyone goes to bed. You don’t have tense and sleep-deprived supporters waiting until the wee hours of the evening getting more and more unruly, drunk, or violent.
February 23, 2016 at 4:48 am |
The teeming millions desperately await new articles! The rare insights provided by this blog open a window into the world of Taiwanese politics that would otherwise remain inaccessible for most.
March 20, 2016 at 4:24 am |
Thanks for taking the time to do this excel file! 😀 Was wondering whether you might have the party list break downs by current LY districts for the 2008, 2012 Legislative election (Party list), and that of the 2005 National Assembly election? Thanks!
March 21, 2016 at 1:43 am |
I don’t have it for the 2005 NA election. I usually ignore that one since turnout was pathetically low (about 25%, if I recall correctly). I posted the 2012 data a couple months ago. I think I have 2008 on my other computer, but I’ll have to check.
March 21, 2016 at 2:36 pm
Thanks, that’s really helpful! Just found the 2012 data, I’m assuming the columns b1-b12 are the list results?
March 29, 2016 at 10:06 am |
Nathan, we need to hear from you about a DPP legislator’s recent proposal to abolish township mayor elections.
March 29, 2016 at 10:33 pm |
There is so much we need to hear from him about: Hung as KMT Chair, Tsai’s selection of Lin as Premier, etc.