Eligible voters

The Central Election Commission has released data on eligible voters in the 2016 elections. However, they did not release the numbers for each individual legislative district. For those, you have to go to each city or county election commission website. Fortunately, I’ve already done that.

The following table has eligible voters in 2012 and 2016 for the 75 districts (73 regular + 2 indigenous). I’m mostly interested in these to calculate turnout. Many people think that blue voters might stay home while green voters turn out in high numbers. If so, we should be able to see a difference in deep blue and deep green districts compared to four years ago.

In the meantime, it’s also fun to look at how much the various districts have grown in the past four years. You might be surprised by some of the faster growing districts. Of course there are the obvious suspects in Taoyuan and New Taipei, but did you realize that the offshore islands and indigenous electorates are growing so quickly? There is also a clear partisan pattern. The fastest growing areas were overwhelmingly won by the KMT in 2012. I’ll be interested to see whether this is still the pattern on Saturday night.

 

 

		2012	2016
district	Area	elect	elect	growth
		17980578	18692216	4.0%
Kinmen		81783	109478	33.9%	blue
Lienchiang		7772	9921	27.7%	blue
New Taipei 1	淡水	288221	322726	12.0%	blue
Taoyuan 1	龜山蘆竹	252699	277449	9.8%	blue
Taichung 4	西屯南屯	263073	287435	9.3%	blue
Highland Indigenous		183398	200029	9.1%	blue
Lowland Indigenous		171548	187076	9.1%	blue
Taoyuan 2	海線楊梅	251099	271280	8.0%	blue
Penghu		76972	83154	8.0%
Taichung 7	太平大里	268042	288794	7.7%
Hsinchu County		368840	396492	7.5%	blue
Taoyuan 3	中壢	241543	259562	7.5%	blue
Taoyuan 5	平鎮龍潭	235906	252796	7.2%	blue
Taipei 4	南港內湖	299527	320963	7.2%	blue
Taoyuan 4	桃園	244653	261773	7.0%	blue
Taoyuan 6	八德	232279	248233	6.9%	blue
Kaohsiung 4	大寮	233078	248774	6.7%
Taichung 5	北屯	301357	321452	6.7%	blue
Taichung 2	大烏龍	270338	288136	6.6%	blue
Taichung 3	潭子后里	230003	243934	6.1%	blue
Tainan 5	永康仁德	308679	327221	6.0%
Kaohsiung 3	左營楠梓	273788	289344	5.7%	blue
New Taipei 10	土城	257744	272370	5.7%	blue
Kaohsiung 8	鳳山	266958	281637	5.5%
New Taipei 2	蘆洲	260393	274711	5.5%
New Taipei 4	新莊	267836	282373	5.4%	blue
New Taipei 5	樹林	231558	244030	5.4%	blue
Hsinchu City		307851	324395	5.4%	blue
Taipei 8	文山	240357	252360	5.0%	blue
Tainan 3	中西安南	305200	318141	4.2%
New Taipei 11	新店	270338	281608	4.2%	blue
New Taipei 12	汐止	241418	251191	4.0%	blue
Taichung 6	中西東南	248462	258303	4.0%
Taipei 1	北投天母	265606	275449	3.7%	blue
Taipei 2	大同士林	259298	268464	3.5%
Taipei 3	中山	280311	289911	3.4%	blue
Changhua 1	鹿港和美	239563	247505	3.3%	blue
Miaoli 2	山線	224923	232151	3.2%	blue
Taichung 1	清水大甲	204803	211316	3.2%
Yilan		346844	357077	3.0%
New Taipei 7	板橋東	218275	224631	2.9%	blue
Taipei 5	萬華中正	242041	248868	2.8%	blue
Kaohsiung 2	岡山	249535	256424	2.8%
Miaoli 1	海線	202011	207220	2.6%	blue
Kaohsiung 6	三民	205487	210687	2.5%
Tainan 4	東南安平	294356	301713	2.5%
Chiayi City		203946	208988	2.5%
Taipei 7	信義	242933	248887	2.5%	blue
Taichung 8	豐原	203308	207927	2.3%	blue
Tainan 2	麻豆	291977	298294	2.2%
Changhua 2	彰化	233100	237921	2.1%	blue
New Taipei 8	中和	276684	282028	1.9%	blue
Kaohsiung 9	小港	245843	250192	1.8%	blue
New Taipei 3	三重	254922	259224	1.7%
Changhua 4	員林	257151	260906	1.5%
Keelung		294776	298947	1.4%	blue
Nantou 1	草屯埔里	186574	188743	1.2%	blue
Pingtung 1	屏北	225734	228120	1.1%
New Taipei 6	板橋西	212894	215111	1.0%	blue
Taipei 6	大安	243199	245521	1.0%	blue
Yunlin 2	山線	281295	283296	0.7%
Kaohsiung 5	鼓山	219956	221204	0.6%
Pingtung 2	屏東	211995	213023	0.5%	blue
Yunlin 1	海線	278433	279736	0.5%	blue
Hualien		197341	198114	0.4%	blue
Kaohsiung 1	旗山美濃	223797	224630	0.4%
Nantou 2	南投竹山	204413	204977	0.3%	blue
Chiayi County 2	山線	222969	223450	0.2%
Changhua 3	二林	269777	270227	0.2%	blue
New Taipei 9	永和	239622	239962	0.1%	blue
Pingtung 3	屏南	202466	201649	-0.4%
Taitung		118916	118223	-0.6%
Tainan 1	新營	274597	272907	-0.6%
Chiayi County 1	海線	202958	201665	-0.6%	blue
Kaohsiung 7	苓雅	243236	239787	-1.4%