The DPP and Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je have announced their support for a slate of candidates they are calling the Capitol Progressive Alliance. The CPA includes candidates from very different parts of the political spectrum, including some from the deep blue end. They don’t all support Tsai for president, and the DPP has explicitly not made that a condition for its support. Of course, it is an open question as to whether DPP supporters will actually vote for some of these candidates. The slate is as follows:
Taipei 1: Wu Si-yao 吳思瑤 (DPP)
Taipei 2: Pusuya Yao 姚文智 (DPP)
Taipei 3: Billy Pan 潘建志 (IND)
Taipei 4: Huang Shan-shan 黃珊珊 (PFP)
Taipei 5: Freddy Lim 林昶佐 (NPP)
Taipei 6: Fan Yun 范雲 (SDP)
Taipei 7: Yang Shih-chiu 楊實秋 (IND, formerly KMT)
Taipei 8: Lee Ching-yuan 李慶元 (IND, formerly NP, PFP, and KMT)
The big omission is in Taipei 3, where the CPA snubbed SDP candidate Lee Yan-jung in favor of Billy Pan. They defended this decision by citing public opinion, saying that Pan was clearly leading Lee in the polls.
How many of these eight are likely to win? Yao is an incumbent in Taipei 2, and he is the only one I feel confident about. Huang Shan-shan claims to have opened up a 15% lead on her opponent in Taipei 3, but I am a bit skeptical of this. It is unlikely that the alliance could win in either Taipei 1 or 5, but it is not so unlikely that a victory in either of those two would qualify as an electoral miracle. The other four districts would take a miracle.