Updated poll of polls

Did anything happen while I was gone? Really?!? Well, I might have some opinions about that…

While I think about what to make of recent events, here is an updated poll of polls. (For methodology, see the previous post.) Things have been fairly stable over the past month. Ever since the PRC’s big parade, Tsai has held a (bigger) lead, Soong has slumped into the oblivion that is third place, and Hung hasn’t managed to make any headway.  Also note the steady rise in Don’t Know over the past four months. This increase comes entirely out of the two blue camp candidates’ ledger. I imagine some of them are undecided between Hung and Soong and will continue to be blue camp voters one way or another. However, many of them will stay home, and some of them are probably now considering Tsai. There just isn’t much good news for the blue camp (or the PRC) to be seen in these data. (There is a small spike for Hung in the past week, but there are two reasons that the KMT might want to restrain its excitement. On the one hand, Tsai’s support has remained high. On the other, that spike is driven entirely by two recent TVBS polls, and TVBS has generally produced higher KMT estimates than other survey organizations in recent years.)