Polling irregularities in Taipei 3?

Lo Shu-lei 羅淑蕾 is making some very interesting accusations about the KMT’s polling process in her primary race. Recall that to win in the first round, she had to beat her opponents by at least 5%. In fact, she only won by 4.2%

In this story from New Talk, Lo points out that ever since she opposed the Want Want China Times Group’s (WWCT) attempt to buy cable TV services from China Network Systems (CNS, 中嘉網路), WWCT has been out for her head.

WWCT has a polling center, Apollo Survey and Research Company(艾普羅), and this was apparently one of the two polling organizations that the KMT chose to do the Taipei 3 primary surveys. Lo wondered why, since the KMT leaders knew of her disputes with CCTS, they wouldn’t chose a more neutral organization?

Lo further pointed out that she won the two surveys by margins of 6.55% and 1.77%, for an average of 4.2%. She did not explicitly say that the Apollo survey was the one she only won by 1.77%.

If all of this is correct (and if the Apollo survey was the 1.77% victory), Lo has a legitimate gripe. It’s not statistically that improbable that the gaps in the two surveys would differ by 4.8%. However, when you add in a clear motivation and a results that takes Lo from just above the 5% threshold to just below the 5% threshold, things do start to seem a bit fishy.

This gets even juicier in the fuller context of this story, which claims that the KMT nominating committee is using its power to systematically favor legislators loyal to Chu. Those who are seen as belonging to other factions are supposedly the ones who haven’t passed the first round. There are no other clear accusations made, but the author notes that one of the others who didn’t pass the first round was Lu Chia-chen 盧嘉辰, who is a Wang supporter.

Now, take this all with a grain of salt. The KMT never officially released the survey numbers or announced who was doing the polling. The accusations that the KMT nominating committee has its thumb on the scale are from anonymous sources or people who lost their races. Still, it’s interesting to hear these arguments being made in public.

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