two thoughts

Judging from the campaign advertisements, I’m pretty sure that at least half of the legislature has been judged as “the number one legislator.”  Chiang Nai-hsin 蔣乃辛, who hasn’t even been in for a full term is apparently number one.

Just off the top of my head, here in the Taipei area, incumbents claiming to be number one include Ting Shou-chung 丁守中, Chou Shou-hsun 周守訓, Chiang Nai-hsin 蔣乃辛, Lai Shi-pao 賴士葆, Lin Shu-fen 林淑芬, Li Hung-chun 李鴻鈞, and Lin Hung-chih 林鴻池.  I’m not sure about some of the others; the only ones I can be pretty sure are NOT claiming to be the best are Tsai Cheng-yuan 蔡正元, Chang Ching-chung 張慶忠, and Lee Ching-hua 李慶華, who probably decided that no one would believe such a claim.  Heck, we even have a former legislator (Lin Cho-shui 林濁水) making that claim.  My favorite response comes from Taipei 2 challenger Yao Wen-chih 姚文智, who retorts that his opponent, instead of being the best student, might need to be held back.

 

Somewhere in the depths of the internet, I ran across this gem.  Now, the law says that we can’t publicize any survey results after Jan 4, so I’m just pointing you to Tsai Cheng-yuan’s 蔡正元 blog.  He released a survey on Jan 3, and I’m scratching my head about it.  He wants to tell Huang Shan-shan 黃珊珊 supporters that their candidate’s cause is hopeless, and they should strategically vote for him to avoid throwing the Taipei 4 seat to the DPP.  However, I think his poll accomplishes the exact opposite.  Tsai and Huang are close enough that if I were a Huang supporter and saw this, I would conclude that the two are close enough that we really can’t be sure that Tsai is the stronger of the two.  In other words, this poll would give me permission to go ahead and vote for Huang.

I don’t know what the Tsai campaign was thinking about.  No one really believes that his own poll numbers announced on his blog are objective or neutral.  Is this the best he could do?  If it were me, I would have cut her support in half before publishing the numbers.  This tells me that Huang is a lot stronger than I thought she was.  Either that, or the Tsai campaign is marked by a bit of incompetence.

Fortunately for them, the counter shows that only 55 people have viewed that post.

5 Responses to “two thoughts”

  1. Byron Says:

    Maybe Tsai already cut Huang’s poll number ini half….. 😀

  2. Ben Goren Says:

    Hi Nathan,
    I know this isn’t related to the post but I can’t find your email address. I want to live blog the results tomorrow and I would like to announce results in the GAIN / HOLD / LOSS format. However I need a full list of all the Legislative Yuan candidates by name / party / district in English (and if possible Mandarin). I’ve checked your blog and the LY site but I can’t find one full up to date and easily accessible list. Do you have a link to a full list on your site or a place I could get that information?
    Many thanks
    Ben

  3. frozengarlic Says:

    [A note to myself] The poll showed Tsai 24, Lee 18, Huang 18.

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