This is what will happen! For sure!

This is not so much a prediction as a guess.  I don’t really believe that social scientists are in the business of prediction in the same way that the natural sciences are.  However, it is a lot of fun to guess the future.

Taiwanese election results are usually surprising.  I expect to be wrong on several of my guesses.  So this year I am making three different predictions.  First, there is the old traditional guess, which I call “Frozen Garlic’s gut instinct.”  The other two are what I think of as the realistic best-case scenarios for the KMT and DPP.  I understand that “realistic best-case scenario” is a bit of an oxymoron.  The notion here is that these are the most extreme outcomes that I would not find shocking.  That doesn’t mean that these are actually the outer limits; I have been shocked quite a few times just in the past two years.

On the presidential election, my answer seems to change every day.  Some days I think Tsai will eke out a win; other days I think Ma will win.  For some unexplained reason, today I am guessing a Ma victory.  I have a hard time imagining either big party slipping below 45%, so my real prediction is that this will be a very close election.  (I know everyone is stunned by that bold and unexpected prediction!)

On the legislative side, if you add up my gut predictions, you get a narrow blue camp majority.  However, I think anything from a big blue camp majority to a narrow green camp majority is quite possible.

There is a big range between my two “reasonable extremes,” and that is because of a point I have been making for about a year now.  There are a large number of districts that will swing from one party to the other at about the same time the national vote makes the same swing.  So if Ma wins by 5%, expect most of these to swing to the KMT.  If Tsai wins, expect the DPP to win almost all of these swing districts.

 

  KMT DPP PFP TSU IND blue green
President              
FG gut 49 48 3        
KMT best 53 45 2        
DPP best 47 49 4        
PFP best 47.1 46.9 6        
.              
Legislature              
FG gut 52 52 4 2 3 59 54
KMT best 66 41 2 0 4 72 41
DPP best 46 56 5 2 4 55 58

 

The breakdown of those totals is as follows:

district   FG gut KMT best DPP best
.        
President K-D-P 49-48-3 53-45-2 47-49-4
. PFP best 47.01-47-6    
.        
Taipei 1 Beitou KMT KMT KMT
Taipei 2 Shilin DPP DPP DPP
Taipei 3 Zhongshan KMT KMT KMT
Taipei 4 Nangang DPP KMT DPP
Taipei 5 Wanhua KMT KMT KMT
Taipei 6 Da-an KMT KMT KMT
Taipei 7 Xinyi KMT KMT KMT
Taipei 8 Wenshan KMT KMT KMT
New Taipei 1 Danshui KMT KMT KMT
New Taipei 2 Luzhou DPP DPP DPP
New Taipei 3 Sanchong DPP KMT DPP
New Taipei 4 Xinzhuang DPP KMT DPP
New Taipei 5 Shulin DPP DPP DPP
New Taipei 6 Banqiao (N) KMT KMT KMT
New Taipei 7 Banqiao (S) DPP DPP DPP
New Taipei 8 Yonghe KMT KMT KMT
New Taipei 9 Zhonghe KMT KMT KMT
New Taipei 10 Tucheng DPP KMT DPP
New Taipei 11 Xindian KMT KMT KMT
New Taipei 12 Xizhi DPP KMT DPP
Jilong   KMT KMT KMT
Taoyuan 1 Guishan KMT KMT KMT
Taoyuan 2 Coast DPP DPP DPP
Taoyuan 3 Zhongli KMT KMT DPP
Taoyuan 4 Taoyuan DPP KMT DPP
Taoyuan 5 Pingzhen KMT KMT KMT
Taoyuan 6 Bade KMT KMT KMT
Hsinchu City   KMT KMT KMT
Hsinchu Cnty   KMT KMT KMT
Miaoli 1 Coast KMT KMT KMT
Miaoli 2 Inland KMT KMT KMT
Taichung 1 Qingshui DPP DPP DPP
Taichung 2 Dadu IND (blue) IND (blue) IND (blue)
Taichung 3 Shengang KMT KMT KMT
Taichung 4 Xitun KMT KMT KMT
Taichung 5 Beitun KMT KMT KMT
Taichung 6 Central DPP KMT DPP
Taichung 7 Dali DPP DPP DPP
Taichung 8 Fengyuan DPP DPP DPP
Changhua 1 Lugang DPP DPP DPP
Changhua 2 Changhua KMT KMT KMT
Changhua 3 Erlin KMT KMT KMT
Changhua 4 Yuanlin KMT KMT KMT
Nantou 1 North KMT KMT KMT
Nantou 2 South KMT KMT KMT
Yunlin 1 Coast DPP KMT DPP
Yunlin 2 Inland DPP DPP DPP
Chiayi 1 coast DPP KMT DPP
Chiayi 2 Inland DPP DPP DPP
Chiayi City   DPP KMT DPP
Tainan 1 Xinying DPP DPP DPP
Tainan 2 Madou DPP DPP DPP
Tainan 3 North DPP DPP DPP
Tainan 4 South DPP DPP DPP
Tainan 5 Yongkang DPP DPP DPP
Kaohsiung 1 Meinong DPP DPP DPP
Kaohsiung 2 Gangshan KMT KMT DPP
Kaohsiung 3 Zuoying KMT KMT KMT
Kaohsiung 4 Daliao DPP DPP DPP
Kaohsiung 5 Gushan DPP DPP DPP
Kaohsiung 6 Sanmin DPP DPP DPP
Kaohsiung 7 Lingya DPP DPP DPP
Kaohsiung 8 Fengshan DPP KMT DPP
Kaohsiung 9 Xiaogang DPP DPP DPP
Pingtung 1 North DPP DPP DPP
Pingtung 2 Pingtung DPP DPP DPP
Pingtung 3 South DPP DPP DPP
Taitung   KMT KMT DPP
Hualien   KMT KMT KMT
Ilan   DPP KMT DPP
Penghu   IND (blue) IND (blue) IND (blue)
Jinmen   KMT KMT PFP
Lienchiang   KMT KMT IND
Plains Abs 1st seat KMT KMT KMT
Plains Abs 2nd seat KMT KMT PFP
Plains Abs 3rd seat PFP IND(not笛布斯) IND (any)
Mountain Abs 1st seat KMT KMT KMT
Mountain Abs 2nd seat KMT KMT KMT
Mountain Abs 3rd seat IND 金 IND 金 PFP
Party list K-D-P-T 14-15-3-2 17-15-2-0 14-16-2-2

 

Just remember, with roughly 95% certainty, this is all wrong.  And if the dam holding the Feitsiu Reservior breaks, we learn that Ma has a solid gold, diamond-encrusted toilet in his unregistered house in Cayman Islands, or Lee Teng-hui dies and is reincarnated as the 15th Dalai Lama before the election, all bets are off.

2 Responses to “This is what will happen! For sure!”

  1. JOE Says:

    What is the reason which supports Ma’s victory while Soong gets 6% in the case of PFP best?

  2. njyoung Says:

    i think Ma best is 50%. Tsai minimum is 45%. Soong should get 3-4%.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: