New questions to chew on. The winner of the contest gets to put a bulb of garlic in the freezer!
1. Which of these KMT assassins will get the highest vote percentage?
A. Chien Wei-chuan 錢薇娟 (New Taipei 2)
B. Chiang Chi-chen 江啟臣 (Taichung 8)
C. Chen Yi-chen 陳以真 (Chiayi 2)
D. Su Chun-bin 蘇俊賓 (Tainan 4)
E. Chiu Yu-hsuan 邱于軒 (Kaohsiung 4)
2. We all think the DPP’s presidential vote percentage will be higher in 2012 than in 2008. Which city or county will see the largest increase?
3. New Taipei City has 12 legislative seats. Three (D8, D9, D11) are safe KMT seats, and one is a safe DPP seat (D2). The other eight could plausibly be won by either party. How many of the 12 seats will the DPP win?
Frozen Garlic 
January 12, 2012 at 5:05 pm |
Yay. A new set 🙂
[1] 江啟臣 Taichung 8.
[2] Tough call. Taichung City.
[3] I’m guessing 6 Seats. Luzhou (2), Sanchong (3), Xinzhuang (4), Shulin (5), Banqiao South(7), Tucheng (10).
Oh and maybe the DPP could even win…
in the most dangerous races of the nation…(j/k)
January 13, 2012 at 5:02 am |
Think I forgot to consider all the pan-blue splits lol.
A. Chien Wei-chuan 錢薇娟 (New Taipei 2): No splits, At absolute best around 45ish?
B. Chiang Chi-chen 江啟臣 (Taichung 8): Two splits, if each takes 5%, KMT around 40ish?
C. Chen Yi-chen 陳以真 (Chiayi 2): Forget about her. At best 40ish.
D. Su Chun-bin 蘇俊賓 (Tainan 4): Forget about him. At best 40ish
E. Chiu Yu-hsuan 邱于軒 (Kaohsiung 4): Forget about her. At best 40ish.
Conclusion: I change my mind. A) 錢薇娟.
January 12, 2012 at 5:41 pm |
1.A. Chien Wei-chuan 錢薇娟 (New Taipei 2)
2.Taichung City
3. 6 seats. Sanchong, Xinzhuang, Shulin, Banqiao (S), Luzhou, and Xizhi.
January 13, 2012 at 12:24 am |
1.C. Chen Yi-chen 陳以真 (Chiayi 2)
2.Taichung
3.7 seats,Sanchong,Luzhou,Xinzhuang, Shulin, Banqiao (S), Luzhou, and Xizhi, Tanshui
January 13, 2012 at 4:33 am |
1. Which of these KMT assassins will get the highest vote percentage?
A. Chien Wei-chuan 錢薇娟 (New Taipei 2). I really think their vote number will be really ugly though.
2. We all think the DPP’s presidential vote percentage will be higher in 2012 than in 2008. Which city or county will see the largest increase?
Taichung City.
Runner-up: Xinbei City.
3. New Taipei City has 12 legislative seats. Three (D8, D9, D11) are safe KMT seats, and one is a safe DPP seat (D2). The other eight could plausibly be won by either party. How many of the 12 seats will the DPP win?
7 seats in total:
新北1 石門、三芝、淡水、林口 – 何博文
Reasoning: Song lives in 林口, & there’s an PFP candidate (albeit a weak one.) Wu’s scandal also hurts him, & I think the DPP has a strong candidate.
新北2 五股、蘆洲、三重 – 林淑芬
新北3 三重 – 高志鵬
新北4 新莊 – 林濁水
新北5 樹林、鶯歌 – 廖本煙
新北7 板橋 – 羅致政
新北12 金山、萬里、汐止 – 沈發惠
Reasoning: Lee is unpopular with the local KMT establishment & Luo’s running.
January 13, 2012 at 4:37 am |
orz, I missed 新北10 土城、三峽 – 莊碩漢. Add one to my answer, with 8/12 for DPP in Xinbei please.
January 13, 2012 at 9:11 am |
1. A. New Taipei 2.
Chiang in Taichung 8 will have his votes split, 40% at best. Chien in New Taipei 2 may get 45ish.
2. Taichung or Taitung.
3. DPP will win 新北2,3,4,5,7 and possibly 12. so 6/12 in New Taipei for the DPP. Personally I don’t think 何博文will win in D1
January 14, 2012 at 4:55 am |
After searching up for the detailed result of 2008, I’ll switch my answer to Miaoli. I expect a 8~10% increase here for the DPP.
January 13, 2012 at 12:41 pm |
1. Which of these KMT assassins will get the highest vote percentage?
D. Su Chun-bin 蘇俊賓 (Tainan 4)
2. We all think the DPP’s presidential vote percentage will be higher in 2012 than in 2008. Which city or county will see the largest increase?
Yunlin County
3. New Taipei City has 12 legislative seats. Three (D8, D9, D11) are safe KMT seats, and one is a safe DPP seat (D2). The other eight could plausibly be won by either party. How many of the 12 seats will the DPP win?
D3 D4 D7
😉
January 13, 2012 at 12:44 pm |
3. +D2
January 14, 2012 at 2:01 am |
1. A. Chien Wei-chuan (New Taipei D2)
2. New Taipei City, runner-up: Taichung
3. I would guess DPP will win only 5 of 12 seats.
D2, D3, D4, D5, D7.
and D10 will be very close.
January 14, 2012 at 3:36 am |
2. for precentage: I would say Hsinchu country or Miaoli will see the largest increase
January 14, 2012 at 2:13 am |
My answers are:
1. Su Chun-bin 蘇俊賓 (I feel the need to be different)
2. Hsinchu County (Hakka, and more room to improve)
3. 7 (I’ll stay with my official prediction even though I’m feeling a lot less optimistic about the DPP’s prospects tonight than I was yesterday.)
January 14, 2012 at 2:37 am |
the second question is for net vote or percentage?
January 14, 2012 at 2:39 am
Vote percentage.
January 14, 2012 at 11:37 pm |
DPP ends up winning only 2 ridings in New Taipei, totally surprised me.
January 14, 2012 at 11:51 pm |
Answers.
1. Su Chun-bin 蘇俊賓 (Tainan 4): 47.0%
2. Hsinchu County (5.0%)
3. the DPP won 2 of 12 seats in New Taipei
1. Which of these KMT assassins will get the highest vote percentage?
A. Chien Wei-chuan 錢薇娟 (New Taipei 2): 39.5%
B. Chiang Chi-chen 江啟臣 (Taichung 8): 44.8%
C. Chen Yi-chen 陳以真 (Chiayi 2): 44.8%
D. Su Chun-bin 蘇俊賓 (Tainan 4): 47.0%
E. Chiu Yu-hsuan 邱于軒 (Kaohsiung 4): 34.0%
Mike: 0
Fernando: 0
Stanley: 0
Rust: 0
KOH+: 0
Wasp: 1
ip: 0.5
FG: 2
conclusion: we’re all pretty lousy. No one was even close on Q3.