The xfuture market is, as we all know, reputed to be more accurate than surveys. The xfuture market knows all. Bow down before the amazing predictive powers of xfuture.
I’m on record as not being a big fan of the futures market here in Taiwan, but rather than explain why I think it is flawed from a theoretical perspective, I’m just going to bury them with their own numbers. Welcome to fantasyland.
Most people are looking at the presidential election market. Now Tsai 51.2%, Ma 42.1%, Soong 8.9% looks fairly crazy to me. Tsai might win, but by 9%?? However, it seems there are some people who think this could happen. So instead, I have turned my gaze to the other election. (Yes, there is another election.) I looked at the vote markets (not who will win) for all 73 district races. The following table shows the leader in each race and their margin over the closest competitor as of tonight. I have ordered the table from the blue camp’s best to the green camp’s best districts. For example, New Taipei 11 (Xindian City) was the KMT’s best district, with Luo Ming-tsai 羅明才 leading Kao Chien-chih 高建智 by a margin of 64.4-35.3%.
|New Taipei 11||KMT||29.1|
|New Taipei 9||KMT||19.3|
|New Taipei 8||KMT||7.3|
|New Taipei 6||DPP||0.5|
|New Taipei 4||DPP||0.8|
|New Taipei 10||DPP||2.2|
|New Taipei 12||DPP||4.3|
|New Taipei 5||DPP||5.8|
|New Taipei 3||DPP||7.4|
|New Taipei 7||DPP||7.6|
|New Taipei 1||DPP||8.1|
|New Taipei 2||DPP||20.5|
You may have noticed that there are a lot of DPP districts. According to the xfuture market, the DPP will win 52 of the 73 districts. The KMT wins only 20, and the New Party wins the other one. The DPP is predicted to win 5 of 6 in Taoyuan, 9 of 12 in New Taipiei City, and 4 of 8 in Taipei City. Just for reference, they did not win 18 of those 26 seats four years ago; they won a mere two. You know that phrase the DPP loves to repeat about how the KMT can’t cross the Zhuoshui River? The prediction market takes it literally. The DPP wins everything south of the river, and that even includes Penghu and Taitung. There are crazy predictions up and down this list. The DPP is supposed to win Jilong City by a comfortable 6.7%. If that happens, I’ll eat my pink Tsai Ing-wen flag. Maybe the most incredible result is one that gets the winner right. In Taoyuan 6, the KMT is predicted to win by a mere 1%. That could happen, but only if you change the “1%” to “30%.”
Oh but wait, we’re not done yet. There are also 34 party list seats to distribute. According to xfuture, five parties will get more than 5% and be eligible to win seats. The five are the KMT, DPP, PFP, TSU, and … the Green Party!!! I was already skeptical at the TSU, but then you tell me the Green Party is going to get 5.3%. What can I say to that? I’ve already committed to eating my pink flag; I guess if the Green Party goes over 5% I’ll have to promise buy a bicycle and ride it to work for a month. Translating the xfuture numbers to seats, you get KMT 12, DPP 15, PFP 3, TSU 2, and Green Party 2.
The six aboriginal seats restore some measure of sanity, as the DPP’s lone candidate somehow is not favored to win a seat.
Adding up all the seats, we come up with:
If you assume that the first four groups are blue and the last three are green, the two camps have 42 and 71 seats, respectively.
So xfuture is predicting not just a DPP victory, but a DPP landslide of nearly unimaginable proportions. President Tsai wouldn’t just have a majority to work with, she would have a large enough majority that she would be able to ignore most dissent from within her own party. The two parties would effectively be switching positions, with the DPP becoming the party in total command of the government and the KMT completely unable to exercise any check on the DPP’s power. (At least not through legitimate elected institutions.)
By the way, don’t forget that the xfuture market is even more accurate than surveys!