There has been a stunning turn of events in the Yu-Chang 宇昌 controversy today. Apparently some of the documents that COPD Chair Christina Liu 劉憶如 released were not written on the date that she claimed. The DPP is demanding an apology and suing her; Soong is chiming in that scandals 30 days before the election don’t seem right, and Ma is maintaining silence under the excuse that the case is ongoing. In short, the KMT attack is completely collapsing, and now the KMT is scrambling to limit the damage that it has inflicted upon itself.
I haven’t figured out yet whether the date actually makes much difference in assessing Tsai’s behavior, but that might not matter so much. In a very complicated case like this one, any suspicion that one side is playing fast and loose with the facts is deadly. If the KMT needs to make things up, the easy conclusion is that Tsai must be innocent. If you are going to go negative, you simply cannot make mistakes like this.
What’s more, this fiasco might serve to inoculate Tsai and Soong against any future attacks the KMT is planning. Their inevitable cries of “dirty tricks!” will now be credible.
Simply stunning.
Frozen Garlic 
December 14, 2011 at 12:17 am |
Good day Garlic:
You mentioned in the previous post that the Tsai camp seems to be reacting rather than countering with an already prepared strategy, & I was a little puzzled by this since I believe they were aware that Yu-chang will be played by the Kmt.
Considering the turn of events now, do you think it possible that the Tsai camp waited, purposely, for the Kmt to dig themselves too deeply into this attack, & than counter fast & furiously, so much so that they can hardy climb their way back out?
December 14, 2011 at 1:05 am |
That is entirely possible. If they did, they have (1) nerves of steel (to wait three days) and (2) incredibly strong discipline (since no one leaked the news early).
December 14, 2011 at 1:59 am |
Do you think this will have any effect upon the legislative election?
December 14, 2011 at 4:09 am |
Massive cock-up by the KMT. However, they deserve it.
December 15, 2011 at 9:49 pm |
The KMT were ahead – all they had to do was play it safe, bang on about Chen Shui-bian and Su’s farmhouse and Ma would probably have won the election easily. Why did they embark on this crazy strategy, especially since all their previous attempts to attack Tsai’s character have failed? (except on the18%) Whose idea was it? It might have made more sense had they been behind in the race.
December 16, 2011 at 12:09 am |
I think they were behind, & that was why they decided to take the chance. Although most pro-kmt news polls show them ahead by some margins, compare to their old results which usually overestimate kmt support over the DPP by roughly 10%, they look pretty bad.
December 16, 2011 at 1:33 am |
I get the feeling that both sides think they are ahead. Let’s be honest, no one quite knows how survey evidence will translate into votes. Also, both sides have their own internal surveys, expert evaluations, and detailed local reactions to the latest developments. They might be looking at the same picture but paying attention to completely different sets of details.
December 16, 2011 at 9:54 am
Not sure about that – the DPP have only managed to get over 50% in a presidential election once, and then only just. The KMT base is still larger than the DPP base, they have more money and better organization, and Ma is the incumbent (2004 showed that incumbency has a powerful effect in Taiwan’s presidential elections). As long as Soong doesn’t take too many votes, it is very hard for Tsai to win.
Even now, the DPP people I have spoken to still think that Ma will probably win.
The TVBS polls have actually been fairly accurate in the last two elections – they did have Ma ahead in this race but now the latest poll shows a tie.
December 16, 2011 at 12:42 am |
The KMT were already behind in the public perception when the Yu Chang scandal blew up in their faces.
Nathan, the KMT had already attempted to use this against Tsai twice — once when she was running for Chair, in 2008. Then again in the Taoyuan election last year. They of course knew this was coming.
What’s shocking is that they could have gone for the more insidious wounding of her reputation, but the missdated document — which really does appear to be an awful forgery because of the way it was made — looks like they were desperate.
More ominous is that all this smoke is screening yet another use of the special prosecutors against a DPP politician, in this case Tsai herself.
Michael
December 16, 2011 at 1:29 am |
I’ve heard references to it being brought up before, but I don’t know the detailed history. These are the kinds of day-to-day details that I missed when I was out of the country. Which Taoyuan race are you talking about, the county magistrate race or one of the by-elections? More importantly, did they have new evidence this time, or do you think they just thought they would make the case more forcefully to a more sympathetic (ie: not just party members) and more attentive (because the presidency is on the line) public?