Here’s my up to date handicapping of all the races. It still looks like the blue camp will retain a majority, but that is not a sure bet by any means. The hardest line to draw in this particular exercise was the one between “leans blue” and “tossup”. On another day, the two might have had 15 and 16 districts, respectively. I also think that the green camp is likely to win well more than half of the current tossup group.
Keep in mind that the blue camp will win all six aboriginal seats.
I’m still basing this all on a small KMT overall victory, say about 52-48. If the DPP wins the presidency by 52-48, they will probably win all the tossups plus a couple others, such as New Taipei 6, Taichung 3, Miaoli 1, and Penghu. The basic point is that I can imagine scenarios in which the DPP wins a majority without stretching my imagination too much.
| Safe blue (14) | Leans blue (20) | Tossup (11) | Leans Green (17) | Safe Green (11) |
| Taipei 1 | Taipei 3 | Taipei 4 | Taipei 2 | New Taipei 2 |
| Taipei 6 | Taipei 5 | New Taipei 4 | New Taipei 3 | Tainan 1 |
| Taipei 7 | New Taipei 1 | New Taipei 7 | New Taipei 5 | Tainan 2 |
| Taipei 8 | New Taipei 6 | New Taipei 10 | Taichung 1 | Tainan 3 |
| New Taipei 8 | New Taipei 12 | Taichung 6 | Taichung 7 | Tainan 4 |
| New Taipei 9 | Taichung 2 | Kaohsiung 1 | Taichung 8 | Tainan 5 |
| New Taipei 11 | Taichung 3 | Kaohsiung 2 | Kaohsiung 5 | Kaohsiung 4 |
| Taichung 5 | Taichung 4 | Kaohsiung 8 | Kaohsiung 6 | Yunlin 2 |
| Taoyuan 6 | Kaohsiung 3 | Taoyuan 1 | Kaohsiung 7 | Chiayi 2 |
| Miaoli 2 | Taoyuan 3 | Taoyuan 4 | Kaohsiung 9 | Pingtung 1 |
| Jilong | Taoyuan 5 | Taitung | Ilan | Pingtung 3 |
| Hsinchu City | Hsinchu Cnty | Taoyuan 2 | ||
| Jinmen | Miaoli 1 | Changhua 1 | ||
| Lienchiang | Changhua 2 | Yunlin 1 | ||
| Changhua 3 | Chiayi 1 | |||
| Changhua 4 | Pingtung 2 | |||
| Nantou 1 | Chiayi City | |||
| Nantou 2 | ||||
| Hualien | ||||
| Penghu |
November 28, 2011 at 4:40 pm |
The classification of Chai-Yi city district contest (Chiang vs. Lee) seems missing.
November 28, 2011 at 4:48 pm |
Thanks for noticing. I have updated the table. That is a hard district for me to evaluate. I almost put it in the tossup category, but I think the DPP advantage in party support will probably overwhelm the KMT advantage in candidate quality.
November 28, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Thanks for updating. As a voter in this district, my hunch is also between tossup and lean green. KMT performed not well in CC election two years ago. This time cannot be any better. However, Lee isn’t a strong candidate to tackle the incumbent by any easy means either.