Archive for November, 2011

On assassins

November 29, 2011

The local media is using a foreign term and getting it wrong.  Again.  Sigh.  This time the local media has taken to calling a handful of candidates “assassins.”

The term comes from the 2005 elections in Japan.  LDP Prime Minister Koizumi wanted to pass postal reform, but a handful of old faction politicians in his party blocked him in the Diet.  He retaliated forcefully.  First he kicked them out of the party, then he called new elections, and then he sent into their districts assassins to kill them.  The assassins were mostly young, attractive, and female.  In the end, the assassins failed miserably (though no one remembers this).  None of them won, and nearly the old faction politicians survived.  However, by turning the election into a referendum on change vs no change, Koizumi won a smashing national victory.  (Everyone remembers this part!)  Ironically, the biggest losers were the DJP, who were advocating even more dramatic reform than Koizumi.   But their message was lost in the dominant discourse of progressive Koizumi vs. reactionary old factions, and the DJP got swept aside in the wave of support for Koizumi.

Back to Taiwan.  The media has dubbed several candidates assassins, most prominently Su Chun-pin 蘇俊賓, Chen Yi-chen 陳以真, and Chien wei-chuan 錢薇娟.  These three are all young attractive KMT candidates sent into an unfamiliar district that heavily favors the DPP against an entrenched DPP incumbent.  In other words, they are sure losers, even if the KMT is suggesting that they can go in and kill the DPP incumbent.  However, this is where the term falls apart.  Koizumi’s assassins were sent in to kill disloyal members of his own party.  By sending the assassins, he sent a clear message to the country about what he stood for.  If the KMT wanted to really follow the LDP’s example, they would send in young, attractive, and idealistic candidates against corrupt or disloyal members of their own party.  Instead of sending those three to fight DPP candidates, Koizumi style assassins would be sent to Taichung 2 to take on Yen Ching-piao 顏清標 (organized crime), New Taipei 11 to kill Lo Ming-tsai 羅明才 (organized crime), and Taipei 4 to defeat Tsai Cheng-yuan 蔡正元 (embezzlement).  This might even frame the election as a fight between honesty and corruption and lead to a KMT landslide.

Right now, Su, Chen, and Chien aren’t assassins at all.  They’re just turkeys.

LY race in Changhua 2

November 29, 2011

The race in Changhua 2 looks fairly simple – it is a straight contest between the KMT and DPP.  However, it almost got very complicated, and the story behind this race allows me to emphasize a couple of points.  First, while we always focus on the people in the race, the people who don’t enter the race can be just as important.  Second, there is a reason that the KMT announces its party list so late.

This story is all about the KMT.  The DPP challenger this year is a county assembly member who I know almost nothing about.  This district should probably favor the KMT slightly, though it’s hard to know exactly.  At any rate, Tsai Ing-wen should run well ahead of the local DPP candidate, so this is the KMT’s district to lose.

Changhua 2 includes Changhua City and two much smaller towns.  Changhua City is one of the older cities in Taiwan.  It developed a bit later than Lugang and it was overtaken by Taichung decades ago, but for much of the Qing Era, Changhua was the preeminent city in central Taiwan.

Changhua City currently has two representatives in the legislature, Lin Tsang-min 林滄敏 and Chen Chieh 陳杰.  Chen’s career starts earlier, so we’ll start with him.  Chen won a seat on the Changhua town council in 1986, and then served two terms in the county assembly.  In 1998, he was elected Changhua mayor.   In 2001 he was elected to the legislature, where he is now finishing his third term.  Most Changhua politicians have power bases in the farmers associations, but Chen is more active in labor unions.  Chen has been the head of the Changhua branch of the Chinese Federation of Labor.  The CFL is a corporatist organization, intended more to keep labor docile than to aggressively represent their interests.  Taiwan and Mexico are the two classic examples of this kind of state corporatist labor union.  Anyway, this organization can still deliver some votes, so it is a valuable source of power for whoever is at the top.

Chen’s move to the legislature meant that the mayoral seat was open, but rather than letting this power base slip away, Chen’s brother Wen Kuo-ming 溫國銘 became the new mayor.   Wen was re-elected in 2005, and after Wen’s two terms were up, the family tried once again.  In 2009, Wen’s wife ran for mayor.  It was a particularly nasty campaign.  Wen’s wife and another KMT candidate filed lawsuits against each other for dirty tricks, and on the last night, Wen’s wife 溫吳麗卿 shaved her head and begged voters to unite around her.  She did defeat the other KMT candidate, but because they split the KMT vote, the DPP won the mayoral race with a plurality.  I can’t think of an example of a single family transferring an office to three different members of the same generation, so the Chen-Wen family nearly accomplished something unique.  However, after 12 years, they lost control of the city government, one of their most important power bases.

In the meantime, another county assembly member was moving up.  Lin Tsang-min ran for the legislature in 2004.  We see the first signs of tension between him and the Chen family earlier that year, when Mayor Wen accused Lin of blocking some funds earmarked for Changhua City in the County Assembly.  Then, in the final days of the campaign, Mayor Wen announced that the city government was forming a team to prevent vote buying.  In most cases, such a team is not intended to prevent all vote buying, just vote buying by other candidates.   Since you usually buy votes in your own home base, and Chen and Lin shared a home base, the anti-vote buying team was probably aimed directly at Lin.  And indeed, after the election, one of Lin’s supporters was indicted on charges of buying votes for Lin, though this case seems to have disappeared soon after.  At any rate, the election was a great triumph for Lin, as he won the most votes of anyone in Changhua.   Chen also won, coming in second, about 12,000 votes behind Lin.

In 2008, with the new single member districts, the KMT had to choose one of them as its candidate.  Both registered for the nomination, and neither one would yield.  Suddenly, about a week before the KMT was to hold its telephone surveys, Chen withdrew from the race and announced he would work in Ma’s presidential election campaign.  A few months later when the KMT announced its party list, Chen’s name was high enough to assure him a seat.  Lin went on to win the district seat easily over the DPP candidate, getting over 60% of the votes.

Fast forward to this year.  Chen did not contest the district nomination, and Lin was re-nominated with little ceremony.  Instead, Chen lobbied actively to maintain his spot on the party list.  However, when the list was announced, his name was not on it.  Chen immediately put out word that he might run as an independent.  Then his family decided that his brother, Wen, would be the candidate.  However, on the last day of registration, they decided not to file the paperwork.  Thus, Lin was left with a simple one-on-one race against the DPP.

What happened?  The rest of this is all speculation, of course, but I think we can make educated guesses about some of the things going on behind the scenes.  It is pretty clear that Chen and Lin have been struggling against one another for most of the past decade to establish primacy in the Changhua City area.  With the old electoral system, it was possible for both of them to survive.  However, with the new system, the struggle took on added urgency.  Lin clearly won the struggle in 2008.  Chen wanted the district seat, but he must have seen that Lin was going to beat him for the nomination, so he withdrew.  Of course, Chen got a side-payment, the party list seat.  That is a pretty good consolation prize.  Let’s remember that the KMT only had a few of these seats to give away as consolation prizes to losers, so why did they give one to Chen?  Chen had blackmail power.  He was a proven candidate who had won every race for many years.  His brother was the mayor and could mobilize the city government (and all the neighborhood heads) on his behalf.  In other words, even if Chen couldn’t beat Lin, he could still cause enough trouble to cause the KMT to lose the seat.  In 2012, the KMT didn’t feel the need to give Chen a seat on the party list.  What was different?  Chen had not run a successful campaign since 2004, so it wasn’t a sure thing that his network was still in top form.  In fact, his sister-in-law hadn’t even been able to win 30% of the vote in the 2009 mayoral election.  And with the family out of the city hall, Chen didn’t have the resources of the local government on his side.  Chen and Wen simply didn’t have as much blackmail power in 2012 as in 2008.

There is one more thing.  After the KMT announced its list, Chen and Wen only had a week and a half to figure out their next move.  It looked a lot like they simply ran out of time before they could get everything straightened out.  This lack of time is not an accident; that is one of the most important reasons the KMT waited so long to release its list.  The KMT’s delay puts people like Chen in a dilemma.  It takes a bit of time to organize a campaign, so you need to start early.  However, you can’t start early if you are trying to win a spot on the party list.  Any organizing is easily spotted by the party leaders and is a clear signal that you are planning to be disobedient.  With such keen competition for spots on the list, any black mark is sufficient to disqualify you.  So people hoping to get on the party list have to sit and wait until the list is announced.  When they are not on it, they often don’t have time to put their backup plan into motion.[1]

If delaying the announcement of the party list is so effective, why doesn’t the DPP do it?  We political scientists like to model parties as interchangeable,[2] but this is an instance in which different parties behave differently because they are not interchangeable.  Renegade campaigns are much more of a problem for the blue camp than for the green camp.  For whatever reason, green camp voters have repeatedly demonstrated that they will not vote for someone who does not sport the party label.  A DPP politician who quits the party and runs as an independent is almost certainly terminating his political career.  This is not the case on the blue side.  There are plenty of examples of KMT politicians who ran as independents and were able to prolong their careers.  Since the KMT has to worry a lot about this problem, they release their party list very late.  The DPP has other things to worry about, such as having time to heal rifts caused by factional fighting, so they prefer to finalize their list as soon as possible.

Who knew that such a simple race – Lin will probably win by about 55-45% – could teach us so much about Taiwanese politics!

[1] Another possibility is that Chen and Wen got a payoff of some sort for not registering.  There are often rumors that the candidate who is running pays a secret bribe to the other candidate for dropping out.  Of course, the bribe theory and the time theory are not mutually exclusive.

[2] For example, in articles with spatial models you often see something like, “Consider a two party system along a single issue dimension.  Without loss of generality, suppose that party A is on the left side of the spectrum.”

I hope this is a crazy post

November 27, 2011

I’m starting to get very concerned about PFP Vice Presidential candidate Lin Ruey-shiung’s 林瑞雄 citizenship.  Some people are concerned that he has both ROC and American citizenship and that the CEC will therefore rule that the PFP presidential ticket is ineligible.  Lin has renounced his American citizenship, but there are still people who think the matter is not resolved.

I would not be too concerned with this, except this story seems to not be going away.  In fact, it almost looks as if the blue media seem to be preparing the ground for a very controversial CEC ruling.  I keep hearing stories about how someone said that someone they know went through this process and it took six months before the friend of the friend got the official document from the US Department of State proving that the friend of the friend was no longer a citizen, and so Lin’s case can’t possibly be resolved by the time the CEC has to rule on whether Lin is still a citizen and therefore the CEC will have no choice but to rule the PFP ticket invalid…  These stories are in the newspapers, and they have been a staple of the blue talk shows for the past week.  Someone just will not let this idea die.

I’m terrified of the idea that someone in the KMT is actually trying to push this agenda before the CEC, and that the CEC will vote along party lines.  In the disaster scenario, the PFP ticket would be disqualified.

As the conspiracy theory goes, the KMT and the PFP both have reasons to want this to happen.  The KMT wants Soong out of the race so that his supporters will have to vote for Ma.  That part is simple.  Less obvious is the argument that Soong would actually like this to happen.  The theory here is that Soong doesn’t really want to cause Ma to lose the presidential race, and he certainly doesn’t want to be humiliated by ending up with 2% when all his supporters eventually decide not to waste their votes on him in a very tight race.  However, Soong is in too deeply to withdraw now.  Moreover, he has to stay in for the sake of his legislative candidates.  Without Soong, the PFP will have no presence in the campaign and become an afterthought (see: TSU and NP).  If, however, the PFP ticket were disqualified, Soong could play the martyr.  He would have all the media attention for a week or two, and he could complain about how unfairly the PFP had been treated.  Of course, the only way PFP supporters (and all good citizens concerned that democracy had been subverted) could express their outrage would be to vote for the PFP’s legislative candidates and party list.

If the PFP ticket were actually disqualified, I think a few things would happen.

The most important thing would be another kick in the groin to Taiwan’s democracy.  A large number of citizens would be horrified and take this as proof that the parties will do anything for power, including manipulating the basic ground rules of the game.  Most of the anger will be directed against the KMT, but there will also be those who see it as an indictment of all politicians.  This would be the worst development for Taiwan’s democracy since the contested 2004 election.

While the most important effect would be to damage Taiwan’s democratic system, there would also be more immediate partisan effects.  The PFP legislative campaign would get a tremendous boost, as laid out above.  However, I don’t think the KMT would benefit.  Sure, some people who are now planning on voting for Soong would vote for Ma.  However, other PFP supporters would feel so disgusted or violated that they wouldn’t be able to cast that vote for Ma.  Some might vote for Tsai, but I wonder if more might just cast invalid votes or stay home.

However, I don’t think that the PFP voters would constitute the main effect.  The group that might be most affected is the group of people trying to decide between Ma and Tsai.  There are many people who might end up voting for Ma if the election is framed as a vote on economics, ECFA, stability, or relations with China.  However, if the election is between a KMT that blatantly subverts democratic norms and [who cares who the other choice is!], they will choose the other choice.

In sum, if the KMT tries to disqualify Soong, they will most likely not reap any benefits.  They would deservedly be punished both by PFP voters and by swing voters (between KMT and DPP).  And the KMT would only be the second biggest loser.  Democracy would be the biggest loser.

I really hope that I am imagining a monster in the closet that simply doesn’t exist.  Maybe there is no guiding hand encouraging all this media discourse.  Maybe this will just blow over.  Maybe rational heads inside the KMT are trying to make this issue go away.  Hopefully the CEC will issues a three sentence press release saying that Lin’s citizenship question has been satisfactorily resolved and that the PFP ticket is eligible.  The best outcome would be for someone reading this post five years from now thinks I am a nutcase conspiracy theorist with a runaway imagination.


[update: Dec. 8, 2011]  The CEC has announced that their investigation of Lin’s citizenship shows that he has already renounced his American citizenship and his candidacy faces no legal obstacles.  I’m relieved to be a nutcase.

The race in Changhua 1

November 27, 2011

If you are the type of person who thinks that democratic politics should be about a clean and pure competition between differing sets of lofty ideals, with a good dose of soaring rhetoric infused with impeccable logic, please cover your eyes.  Democracy in Changhua 1 is not like that at all.  This is the sort of place that we educated and urbane intellectuals tend to look at condescendingly, wondering if those people understand the basic principles of democracy at all.  If you want to win an election here, you need to have extensive personal networks, attend a lot of weddings and funerals, do a lot of favors, and be more than happy to ignore the finer points of the law while doing so.  It’s hard to have a long political career if you don’t have some money flying around.  That’s not to say that the voters here don’t care about high politics; of course they do.  However, their ideals are deeply embedded within a system of personal politics, and it isn’t always easy for outsiders to understand what’s going on.  All this is a long way of saying, no matter who wins this district, don’t expect that legislator to become one of the more eloquent spokesmen for judicial reform, integration into the international system, a more extensive social welfare system, or anything else.  None of these people are that type of politician.

Changhua 1 is centered on Lugang and Homei Townships, and the voters are overwhelmingly Min-nan.  In 2008 the KMT won the seat, but they will have a difficult time hanging on to it this year.  There are two different stories to tell, one on the green side and one on the blue side.  The green side is simpler, so let’s start there.

Changhua has never been one of the DPP’s better markets.  They have won control of the county government a couple of times (1989, 2001), but both times they lost it after only one term.  The DPP has never done very well in assembly elections.  They have never been able to play the game of traditional politics as well as the KMT’s candidates, and they always seem to be a little disappointed on LY election nights.  Unlike Chiayi or Kaohsiung, the traditional candidates have mostly remained in the KMT, so the DPP hasn’t made that much headway here.  It isn’t impossible to imagine a similar transformation happening in Changhua.  Underneath the regular politics you sometimes get a glance of what could happen if local factions were married to a Taiwan nationalist ideology, but Changhua generally remains in its old patterns.  That’s why 2012 appeared at first to be heading for a repeat of 2008, when the KMT easily swept all four seats.  There is potential for the DPP here, but they just don’t have the kind of politicians who can exploit that potential.  In Changhua 3 and 4, they are running the same old candidates who have repeatedly shown that they won’t be the ones to break through.  Expect easy KMT victories there, even if Tsai Ing-wen wins the presidential vote in those districts.

The 2012 race in Changhua 1 seemed to be developing along this familiar script.  Two things have derailed that train.  First, Chen Chin-ting 陳進丁 joined the DPP.  Chen entered politics relatively late in life, running for the National Assembly in 1996 after he was already 50.  Chen won that race and then won three straight terms in the legislature.  For this whole time, he was an independent.  In the legislature, he was one of the mainstays of the Non-Party Alliance, whose other prominent members were “outstanding” people like Lo Fu-chu 羅福助, Yen Ching-piao 顏清標, Lin Ping-kun 林炳坤, and Tsai Hau 蔡豪.  As a non-ideological alliance, the Non-Party Alliance followed the money and almost always cooperated with the blue camp.  On occasion they were willing to play the dirty cop role, sponsoring legislation that the KMT wanted but didn’t want to be too closely associated with.  So that’s the kind of person we’re talking about.

In 2008, Chen’s career hit a major roadblock with electoral reform.  He had hoped that the KMT would treat him like Yen Ching-piao or Lin Ping-kun and yield the district to him.  However, the KMT insisted on nominating its own candidate.  Chen ran as an independent and darn near won.  He got 34% of the vote, and pushed the (very weak) DPP candidate all the down to 21%.  However, the KMT nominee got 45%, and Chen’s stint in the legislature was over.  He apparently didn’t want to abandon his political career, but he seems not to have been sure about how to extend it.  There was some speculation that he might run for Lugang mayor in 2009, but he eventually decided against that.  Instead, he concentrated on getting his daughter elected to the county assembly.

The 2009 elections were an important marker on the national political scene.  This was the first test of the post-Chen Shui-bian era, and the DPP announced its comeback with strong performances all over the island.  These continued in the by-elections in early 2010.  I’m guessing here, but it is quite easy to imagine that a consummate political speculator like Chen Chin-ting could see an opportunity unfolding.  In July, he (and his daughter) joined the DPP.  He immediately announced his willingness to run for legislator if his party needed him.  And just like that, the DPP had a politician capable of playing in the big leagues of Changhua politics.

Chen had some competition for the DPP’s nomination, but he seems to have beaten the field fairly convincingly.  I have not seen any reports of discord in the DPP camp since the nomination was finalized.


What about the KMT’s side?  It starts with Lin Chin-chun 林進春.  Lin was elected to the County Assembly in 1986 and then served two terms in the Provincial Assembly.  In 1998, the Provincial Assembly was abolished, so he moved to the legislature where he won two more terms.  In 2004, he stepped aside and let his wife Chen Hsiu-ching 陳秀卿 have some of the fun.  Her election to the legislature went smoothly.  If you are counting, that’s six straight victories.  2008 would be the seventh, as Chen Hsiu-ching beat Chen Chin-ting and the (lousy) DPP candidate in a three-way race.  This is one of the more impressive records in Taiwanese politics.  In a nutshell, the Lin family is very, very good at the election game as it is played in Changhua.

Chen Hsiu-ching was not unopposed for the KMT nomination for the 2012 election.  Three other politicians also registered, including the Wang Hui-mei 王惠美, the mayor of Lugang, Ruan Hou-chueh 阮厚爵, a county assembly member and relative of former county executive Ruan Gang-meng 阮剛猛, and Yang Yu-chen 楊玉珍, the vice-county executive.  One has to imagine that Chen would have been able to defeat this field, but we’ll never know.  There were rumors that she was sick, and she suddenly died after the registrations were complete.  Almost immediately the Lin family announced that her son Lin Yi-pang 林益邦 would represent the family in the election, but the KMT refused to start the primary over to let him participate.  Instead, they conducted telephone surveys with only the three other candidates, and Wang Mei-hui won.  The KMT immediately announced her as the party’s nominee.  The Lin family responded by announcing that Lin Yi-pang would run as an independent.

The KMT has clearly mishandled this situation.  For some reason, they decided that the registration deadline was inviolable, even in clearly extenuating circumstances.  My guess is that the powers within the local party office really wanted Wang to get the nomination.  When they had the opportunity to eliminate the Lin family, they took it.  This is all in marked contrast to the KMT’s behavior in Taipei 4, my local district.  In Taipei 4, the incumbent was ineligible for the KMT’s nomination due to a court case.  However, a few days after the party primary was finished (and the winner was known), the previous ruling was overturned.  The KMT immediately stopped the whole process, and eventually decided to completely rerun the primary.  Eventually, the incumbent won the nomination.  It sure looks like the people in the Taipei party office wanted the incumbent to get the nomination, and they were willing to bend, even break, the rules to obtain that outcome.  So you might understand the Lin family’s unhappiness that the Changhua party branch insisted that rules were rules, and they were out.  That’s not how it worked in other places.


So now there is a three-way race, between Wang (KMT), Chen Chin-ting (DPP), and Lin Yi-pang (IND).  I have to think that this is one of those rare cases that the KMT will come in third.  Lin Chin-chun is still around running the show, and he is a master of his art.  Moreover, Lin Yi-pang will be able to play the sympathy card, asking voters to show their love, respect, and gratitude to his deceased mother while also complaining that the KMT and Wang treated them shabbily.  However, it is unlikely that the KMT will be completely marginalized.  It is very rare for a KMT nominee to be pushed under 20%.  This is a problem for the blue camp.  Chen Chin-ting is a very strong politician in his own right, and he will be adding a large chunk of DPP votes.  Moreover, Tsai Ing-wen figures to do reasonably well in this district, and the green camp could break even with the blue camp on party list votes.  In short, the DPP will probably end up with a sizeable victory in Changhua 1.  I’m guessing that the result will be something like Chen 45%, Lin 35%, Wang 20%.



LY predictions with 7 weeks to go

November 26, 2011

Here’s my up to date handicapping of all the races.  It still looks like the blue camp will retain a majority, but that is not a sure bet by any means.  The hardest line to draw in this particular exercise was the one between “leans blue” and “tossup”.  On another day, the two might have had 15 and 16 districts, respectively.  I also think that the green camp is likely to win well more than half of the current tossup group.

Keep in mind that the blue camp will win all six aboriginal seats.

I’m still basing this all on a small KMT overall victory, say about 52-48.  If the DPP wins the presidency by 52-48, they will probably win all the tossups plus a couple others, such as New Taipei 6, Taichung 3, Miaoli 1, and Penghu.  The basic point is that I can imagine scenarios in which the DPP wins a majority without stretching my imagination too much.

Safe blue (14) Leans blue (20) Tossup (11) Leans Green (17) Safe Green (11)
Taipei 1 Taipei 3 Taipei 4 Taipei 2 New Taipei 2
Taipei 6 Taipei 5 New Taipei 4 New Taipei 3 Tainan 1
Taipei 7 New Taipei 1 New Taipei 7 New Taipei 5 Tainan 2
Taipei 8 New Taipei 6 New Taipei 10 Taichung 1 Tainan 3
New Taipei 8 New Taipei 12 Taichung 6 Taichung 7 Tainan 4
New Taipei 9 Taichung 2 Kaohsiung 1 Taichung 8 Tainan 5
New Taipei 11 Taichung 3 Kaohsiung 2 Kaohsiung 5 Kaohsiung 4
Taichung 5 Taichung 4 Kaohsiung 8 Kaohsiung 6 Yunlin 2
Taoyuan 6 Kaohsiung 3 Taoyuan 1 Kaohsiung 7 Chiayi 2
Miaoli 2 Taoyuan 3 Taoyuan 4 Kaohsiung 9 Pingtung 1
Jilong Taoyuan 5 Taitung Ilan Pingtung 3
Hsinchu City Hsinchu Cnty Taoyuan 2
Jinmen Miaoli 1 Changhua 1
Lienchiang Changhua 2 Yunlin 1
Changhua 3 Chiayi 1
Changhua 4 Pingtung 2
Nantou 1 Chiayi City
Nantou 2

LY candidates for the 79 nominal seats

November 26, 2011

So, here are the complete rosters for the 73 single member districts plus the two aboriginal districts.  There are a lot of turkeys in this year’s race.  To indicate which candidates can be safely ignored (in my flawed judgment), I have only provided English names for the important candidates.  In a nutshell, there are only two party labels (KMT, DPP) worth having.  The PFP label isn’t an absolute death sentence, but every other party label is a clear signal to voters not to waste their votes.  Almost all the serious candidates not from one of the three big parties have wisely opted for an IND label.

I’ll be updating info on these candidates as I learn more.

(The current rules for English names are as follows.  I only respect people who have been elected legislator.  Their names are taken from the LY website.  Everyone else is thoroughly disrespected.  I make up their names as I see fit with no guiding system at all.  Don’t like it?  Tough.  I’m sick of talking about how to spell names.)

Taipei 1  Beitou, Tianmu
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 56.6, Green 39.4
丁守中 Ting Shou-chung KMT Incumbent (1992-2001, 2004- )
楊烈 Yang Lie DPP Singer
張育憬 Gr
張志傑 3rd 台灣國民會議
鄭光照 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線
Taipei 2  Datong, Shilin
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 48.6, Green 47.6
周守訓 Justin Chou KMT Incumbent (2004), father is military
姚文智 Yao Wen-chih DPP Hsieh faction, ex Kaohsiung City govt spokesman, 2008 LY lost in Kaohsiung
傅文忠 3rd 人民最大黨
王美崴 3rd 人民最大黨
夏林清 3rd 人民民主陣線
Taipei 3  Zhongshan, Northern Songshan
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 58.8, Green 37.6
羅淑蕾 Lo Shu-lei KMT Incumbent (2004), ex PFP
簡余晏 Chien Yu-yan DPP City council, ex TSU
楊長燕 3rd 台灣國民會議
Taipei 4  Nangang, Neihu
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 61.7, Green 34.6
蔡正元 Tsai Cheng-yuan KMT Incumbent (2001)
李建昌 Li Chien-chang DPP City council, New Tide
黃珊珊 Huang Shan-shan PFP City council
臧家宜 3rd 人民最大黨
Taipei 5  Wanhua, Zhongzheng
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 57.9, Green 38.6
林郁方 Lin Yu-fang KMT Incumbent (1995-8, 2001-4, 2008- ), ex NP, ex PFP
顏聖冠 Yan Sheng-guan DPP City council
楊烱煌 IND
陳彥甫 3rd 健保免費連線
周志文 3rd 人民民主陣線
葉玫 3rd 台灣國民會議
劉美娟 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線
Taipei 6  Da-an
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 64.9, Green 31.0
蔣乃辛 Chiang Nai-shin KMT Incumbent (2010 by-election)
趙士強 George Chao DPP Baseball
陳振盛 Chen Chen-sheng PFP Former LY (1998-2001)
陳福民 IND
葉邦宗 IND
趙衍慶 IND
王雲怡 3rd 台灣國民會議
王秀珠 3rd 人民最大黨
周佩民 3rd 台灣主義黨
Taipei 7  Xinyi, Southern Songshan
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 63.1, Green 33.2
費鴻泰 Alex Fai KMT Incumbent (2004), ex NP
潘翰聲 Pan Han-sheng Gr Green camp support
胡光慈 3rd 人民最大黨
唐高炫風 3rd 人民最大黨
黎俊廷 IND
霍汶琳 3rd 台灣主義黨
Taipei 8  Wenshan
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 68.7, Green 27.2
賴士葆 Lai Shyh-bao KMT Incumbent (1998-2001, 2004- )
阮昭雄 Ruan Chao-hsiung DPP City council
李敖 Lee Ao PFP ex LY (2004-2008)
余宛如 Gr
方景鈞 IND
New Taipei 1  Danshui, North Coast
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 58.2, Green 37.7
吳育昇 Wu Yu-sheng KMT Incumbent (2004)
何博文 Ho Bo-wen DPP Media
余宗珮 Yu Tsung-pei PFP Middle school teacher
王鐘銘 Gr
New Taipei 2  Luzhou, Wugu
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 48.5, Green 47.7
錢薇娟 Chien Wei-chuan KMT Basketball
林淑芬 Lin Shu-fen DPP Incumbent (2004)
計京生 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線
龔尤倩 3rd 人民民主陣線
王安娜 3rd 台灣國民會議
New Taipei 3 Sanchong
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 47.7, Green 48.8
李乾龍 Li Chien-lung KMT Sanchung mayor, 前民政局長
高志鵬 Gao Jyh-peng DPP Incumbent (2001)
吳清 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線
蕭炳賢 3rd 健保免費連線
New Taipei 4  Xinzhuang
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 52.0, Green 44.3
李鴻鈞 Lee Hung-chun KMT Incumbent (2001), ex PFP
林濁水 Lin Cho-shui DPP Ex LY (1992-2004), New Tide
鄭余鎮 Cheng Yu-cheng 3rd 健保免費連線, ex LY (2001-4), ex DPP
林麗容 3rd 正黨
New Taipei 5  Shulin
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 53.0, Green 43.2
黃志雄 Huang Chih-hsiung KMT Incumbent (2004), athlete, wife is CC洪佳君
廖本煙 Liao Pen-yen DPP Ex LY (2001-8)
江定謙 3rd 健保免費連線
黃茂 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線
New Taipei 6  Northeast Banqiao
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 53.9, Green 42.2
林鴻池 Lin Hung-chih KMT Incumbent (2004), ex Banqiao mayor
周雅淑 Chou Ya-shu DPP Ex LY (1998-2004)
楊程欽 3rd 台灣國民會議
New Taipei 7  Southwest Banqiao
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 55.1, Green 41.0
江惠貞 Chiang Hui-chen KMT Ex Banqiao mayor
 羅致政  Lo Chih-cheng DPP Political scientist
曾文振 Tseng Wen-chen IND Ex CC, son 曾煥嘉 is now CC, blue camp
New Taipei 8  Zhonghe
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 63.0, Green 33.5
張慶忠 Chang Ching-chung KMT Incumbent (2004)
江永昌 Chiang Yung-chang DPP City council, cousin of ex LY Chao Yung-ching
邱珮琳 Chiu Pei-lin IND Daughter of ex Taiwan Governor Chiu Chuang-huan
陳冠騰 IND
New Taipei 9  Yonghe
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 70.4, Green 26.2
林德福 Lin Te-fu KMT Incumbent (2001)
許又銘 Hsu You-ming DPP 前青商會長
雷倩 Joanna Lei IND Ex LY (2004-8)
曾文聖 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線
New Taipei 10  Tucheng
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 57.0, Green 39.3
盧嘉辰 Lu Chia-chen KMT Incumbent (2008), ex Tucheng mayor
莊碩漢  Chuang Suo-hang DPP Ex LY (2004-8)
楊木萬 Gr
游俊文 3rd 台灣主義黨
王金芬 IND
New Taipei 11  Xindian
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 68.3, Green 28.3
羅明才 Lo Ming-tsai KMT Incumbent (1998), son of Lo Fu-chu
 高建智  Kao Chien-chih DPP Ex LY (2004-8), Hsieh faction
New Taipei 12  Xizhi, Ruifang
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 58.9, Green 36.5
李慶華 Lee Ching-hua KMT Incumbent (1992), son of ex premier Lee Huan, ex NP, ex PFP
 沈發惠  Shen Fa-hui DPP Ex LY (2004-8), New Tide
羅福助 Lo Fu-chu IND Ex LY (1995-2001), organized crime
石翊靖 3rd 人民最大黨
Taichung 1  Qingshui, Dajia
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 54.8, Green 40.4
陳添旺 Chen Tien-wang KMT High school principal
蔡其昌 Tsai Chi-chang DPP Ex LY (2004-8)
王憲堂 IND
Taichung 2  Wuri, Shalu
Seat currently held by: IND (blue camp)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 56.5, Green 38.3
李順涼 Li Shun-liang DPP
顏清標 Yen Ching-piao 3rd 無黨團結聯盟, incumbent (2001), blue camp, organized crime, Black faction
Taichung 3  Tanzi, Shengang
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 54.2, Green 41.2
楊瓊瓔 Yang Chiung-ying KMT Incumbent (1998), Red Faction
童瑞陽 Tong Rui-yang DPP
劉坤鱧 IND Ex CA, ex DPP
Taichung 4  Nantun, Xitun
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 59.3, Green 36.5
蔡錦隆 Tsai Chin-lung KMT Incumbent (2004)
張廖萬堅 Chang Liao Wan-chien DPP City council
蔡智豪 Gr
楊書銘 3rd 人民最大黨
Taichung 5  Beitun, North
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 59.2, Green 36.9
盧秀燕 Lu Shiow-yen KMT Incumbent (1998), military
 謝明源  Hsieh Ming-yuan DPP Ex LY (2001-8)
紀朝川 3rd 健保免費連線
Taichung 6  Central
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 54.9, Green 41.2
黃義交 Hwang Yih-jiau KMT Incumbent (1998), ex PFP
林佳龍  Lin Chia-lung DPP political science
曾坤炳 3rd 健保免費連線, ex city council, ex DPP
王名江 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線
賀姿華 IND
蔡和興 IND
林幸杰 IND
Taichung 7  Dali, Taiping
Seat currently held by: DPP (won in by-election)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 54.5, Green 40.8
鄭麗文 Cheng Li-wun KMT Incumbent (2008), ex DPP
何欣純 Ho Hsin-chun DPP City council
段緯宇 Duan Wei-yu PFP City council
郭庭萓 3rd 台灣主義黨
Taichung 8  Fengyuan, Dongshi
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 55.6, Green 39.4
江啟臣 Chiang Chi-chen KMT Political science, Head of GIO
郭俊銘 Kuo Chun-ming DPP Ex LY (2001-8), New Tide, Hakka
陳清龍 Chen Ching-lung PFP
車淑娟 Che Shu-chuan IND Ex county assembly, Black Faction
齊蓮生 IND
Tainan 1  Xinying, Yanshui
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 39.8, Green 55.9
歐崇敬 Ou Chung-ching KMT 環球科技大學副教授, ex DPP; 2009 lost DPP primary for Chiayi City mayor
葉宜津 Yeh Yi-jin DPP Incumbent (1998)
李宗智 Lee Tsung-chih PFP 新營市長
Tainan 2  Shanhua, Madou
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 39.4, Green 56.3
周賜海 Chou Si-hai KMT Former CA vice speaker
黃偉哲 Huang Wei-cher DPP Incumbent (2004)
詹秋嫻 3rd 中華台商愛國黨
楊士昌 IND
Tainan 3  North, Annan
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 44.6, Green 52.0
謝龍介 Hsieh Lung-chieh KMT City council
陳亭妃 Chen Ting-fei DPP Incumbent (2008)
陳源奇 3rd 健保免費連線
Tainan 4  South, East
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 48.7, Green 47.9
蘇俊賓 Su Chun-pin KMT KMT spokesman
許添財 Hsu Tain-tsair DPP Incumbent (1992-2001, 2011- ), ex Tainan mayor
Tainan 5  Yongkang, Guanmiao
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 45.1, Green 51.2
李全教 Lee Chuan-chiao KMT Ex LY (1998-2008)
陳唐山 Chen Tang-shan DPP Ex LY (1992-3, 2001-4), ex Tainan County executive
林民昌 Gr
Kaohsiung 1  Meinong, Qishan
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 45.0, Green 47.9
鍾紹和 Chung Shao-ho KMT Incumbent (1998), Hakka
邱議瑩 Chiu Yu-ying DPP Incumbent (2001-4, 2008- ), Hakka from Pingtung, father is 邱茂男, husband is Kaohsiung vice mayor 李永得 (Meinong Hakka)
Kaohsiung 2  Gangshan
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 46.8, Green 48.2
林益世 Lin Yi-shih KMT Incumbent (1998)
邱志偉 Chiu Chih-wei DPP 高雄市民政局局長ㄝ, ex 高雄縣長機要秘書
謝長利 IND
Kaohsiung 3  Zuoying, Nanzi
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 55.6, Green 41.1
黃昭順 Huang Chao-shun KMT Incumbent (1992)
林瑩蓉 Ling Ying-jung DPP City council
黎建南 Lee Chien-nan PFP Born in Vietnam!
林震洋 Gr
Kaohsiung 4  Daliao, Linyuan
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 42.9, Green 52.3
邱于軒 Chiu Yu-hsuan KMT Father is 台北市政府財政局局長邱大展, mother in law is former CA 黃碧霞
林岱樺 Lin Tai-hua DPP Incumbent (2001-2008, 2011- )
黃憲南 IND
Kaohsiung 5  Gushan, Eastern Sanmin
Seat currently held by:  DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 46.4, Green 50.6
羅世雄 Lwo Shih-hsiung KMT Ex LY (2001-8)
管碧玲 Kuan Bi-ling DPP Incumbent (2004)
林宏明 IND
董桂如 3rd 健保免費連線
Kaohsiung 6  Western Sanmin
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 48.1, Green 48.5
侯彩鳳 Ho Tsai-feng KMT Incumbent (2001)
李昆澤 Lee Kun-tse DPP Ex LY (2004-8), Nephew of Mayor Chen Chu
Kaohsiung 7  Lingya
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 49.1, Green 47.6
邱毅 Chiu Yi KMT Incumbent (2004), ex PFP
趙天麟 Chao Tien-lin DPP Ex city council
趙振迪 IND
鍾佩璇 3rd 健保免費連線
Kaohsiung 8  Fengshan
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 51.4, Green 45.3
江玲君 Chiang Lin-chun KMT Incumbent (2008)
許智傑 Hsu Chih-chieh DPP ex CA, ex Fengshan mayor
林景元 IND
鄭復華 IND
黃謙福 3rd 人民最大黨
Kaohsiung 9  Xiaogang, Qianzhen
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 46.0, Green 50.6
林國正 Lin Kuo-cheng KMT City council
郭玟成 Kuo Wen-cheng DPP Incumbent (2001)
陳致中 Chen Chih-chung IND Ex president’s son, city council
蔡媽福 Tsai Ma-fu IND Ex city council
林杰正 3rd 台灣國民會議
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 49.0, Green 46.6
林建榮 Lin Chien-jung KMT Incumbent (1995-2001, 2004- )
陳歐珀 Chen Ou-po DPP
Taoyuan 1  Luzhu, Guishan
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 58.6, Green 37.5
陳根德 Chen Ken-te KMT Incumbent (1998), ex CA speaker
鄭文燦 Cheng Wen-tsan DPP Ex CA, ex GIO head
Taoyuan 2  Yangmei, Dayuan
Seat currently held by: DPP (won in by-election)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 55.3, Green 39.2
廖正井 Liao Cheng-ching KMT Ex LY (2008-9), seat stripped for vote buying, Hakka, 前桃園縣副縣長
郭榮宗 Kuo Jung-chung DPP Incumbent (2001-8, 2010- ), won by-election, Min-nan, ex Guanyin mayor, wife is CA郭蔡美英,
Taoyuan 3  Zhongli
Seat currently held by: DPP (won in by-election)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 63.7, Green 31.8
陳學聖 Apollo Chen KMT Ex LY (1998-2004),
黃仁杼 Huang Jen-shu DPP Incumbent (2010- ), won seat in by-election, ex CA, Hakka, wife is CA傅淑香
劉文雄 Liu Wen-hsiung PFP Ex LY (1998-2008)
盧照仁 3rd 台灣主義黨
Taoyuan 4  Taoyuan City
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 59.3, Green 36.9
楊麗環 Yang Li-huan KMT Incumbent (2001)
黃適卓 David Huang DPP Ex LY (2004-8), father is 黃主文 (1983-98) (ex LY, ex Interior Minister, ex TSU)
黃興國 3rd 台灣主義黨
陳叡德 3rd 台灣國民會議
Taoyuan 5  Pingzhen, Longtan
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 65.4, Green 29.4
呂玉玲 Lu Yu-ling KMT Husband is Pingzhen mayor
彭添富 Peng Tien-fu DPP Ex LY (2001-8)
劉邦鉉 Liu Pang-hsuan IND CA, cousin of 劉邦友
黃國華 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線, brother is黃嘉華
黃嘉華 3rd 人民最大黨, brother is黃國華
陳振瑋 3rd 台灣國民會議
吳平娥 IND Longtan town council, ex DPP
Taoyuan 6  Daxi, Bade
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 64.2, Green 32.0
孫大千 Sun Ta-chien KMT Incumbent (2001), ex PFP
胡鎮埔 Hu Chen-pu IND Ex general, Ex Veterans Affairs Commission Chair (under CSB), ties to green camp
鄭振源 IND 復興鄉公所秘書
Hsinchu County
Seat currently held by: DPP (won in by-election)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 70.1, Green 23.1
徐欣瑩 Hsu Hsin-ying KMT CA
彭紹瑾 Perng Shaw-jiin DPP Incumbent (1995-2001, 2004-8, 2010- ), New Tide, Hakka
戴國樑 3rd 台灣主義黨
傅家賢 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線
Miaoli 1  coast
Seat currently held by: IND (won in by-election)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 60.2, Green 34.7
陳超明 Chen Chao-ming KMT Ex LY (1998-2001 as IND), 2004 lost as DPP
杜文卿 Tu Wen-ching DPP Yuanli mayor, ex LY (2001-8)
黃玉燕 IND
李朝雄 3rd 台灣主義黨
Miaoli 2  inland
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 72.5, Green 21.3
徐耀昌 Hsu Yao-chang KMT
楊長鎮 Yang Chang-chen DPP
Changhua 1  Lugang, Hemei
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 53.2, Green 40.2
王惠美 Wang Hui-mei KMT Lugang mayor
陳進丁 Chen Chin-ting DPP Ex LY (1998-2008 as IND)
林益邦 Lin Yi-pang IND Son of ex LYs 林進春 (1998-2008) and 陳秀卿 (2008-11)
施月英 Gr
Changhua 2  Changhua City
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 56.7, Green 39.0
林滄敏 Lin Tsang-min KMT Incumbent (2004)
黃秀芳 Huang Hsiu-fang DPP CA
Changhua 3  Erlin
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 53.5, Green 40.5
鄭汝芬 Cheng Ru-fen KMT Incumbent (2008), father-in-law is ex LY 謝言信, son is CA speaker謝典霖
江昭儀 Chiang Chao-i DPP Ex LY (2001-8)
Changhua 4  Yuanlin
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 55.1, Green 39.9
蕭景田 Hsiao Ching-tien KMT Incumbent (2008)
 魏明谷  Wei Ming-ku DPP Ex LY (2001-8)
Nantou 1  Northern half
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 62.8, Green 31.9
馬文君 Ma Wen-chun KMT Incumbent (2010- ), won by-election, father is ex PA 馬榮吉
張國鑫  Chang Kuo-hsin DPP
何國隆 3rd 台灣主義黨
Nantou 2  Southern half
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 57.6, Green 37.4
林明溱 Lin Ming-chen KMT Incumbent (2008)
 賴燕雪  Lai Yen-hsueh DPP County assembly
王永慶 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線, God of Management
Yunlin 1  Coast
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 47.5, Green 47.0
張嘉郡 Chang Chia-chun KMT Incumbent (2008), daughter of ex County executive 張榮味
李進勇 Lee Chin-yung DPP Ex LY (1992-7), ex Jilong Mayor ex Interior Vice Minister, ex Acting Yunlin County Executive,
Yunlin 2  Inland
Seat currently held by: DPP (won in by-election)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 47.2, Green 46.6
許舒博 Hsu Shu-po KMT Incumbent (1995-2008, 2009- )
劉建國 Liu Chien-kuo DPP Incumbent (2009- )
王美心 3rd 人民最大黨
Chiayi County 1  coast
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 44.6, Green 49.6
翁重鈞 Wong Chung-chun KMT Incumbent (1992-2001, 2004- )
 蔡易餘  Tsai Yi-yu DPP Son of ex LY 蔡啟芳 (2001-8)
Chiayi County 2  inland
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 43.1, Green 52.0
陳以真 Chen Yi-chen KMT Media, family runs 耐斯 corp
陳明文 Chen Ming-wen DPP Incumbent (1998-2001, 2010- ), ex county executive, former KMT
Pingtung 1  northern part
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 44.2, Green 51.4
羅志明 Lo Chih-ming KMT Ex LY (2001-8), ex TSU
蘇震清 Su Chen-ching DPP Incumbent (2008)
吳亮慶 IND Former CA, Relative of Su Chen-ching
陳俊豪 3rd 台灣主義黨
Pingtung 2  Pingtung City
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 51.8, Green 44.6
王進士 Wang Chin-shi KMT Incumbent (2008)
李世斌 Li Shih-bin DPP Ran and lost in 2008
Pingtung 3  Southern part
Seat currently held by: DPP
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 46.7, Green 48.9
龔瑞維 Kung Rui-wei KMT 正修大學副教務長;父親龔新通是恆春鎮老鎮長
潘孟安 Pan Men-an DPP Incumbent (2004)
潘政治 IND
Seat currently held by: DPP (won in by-election)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 69.2, Green 25.4
饒慶鈴 Rao Ching-ling KMT CA speaker, Hakka, father is ex LY vice-speaker 饒穎奇 (1980-2001)
劉櫂豪 Liu Chao-hao DPP Ex NA
吳俊立 Wu Chun-li IND Ex county executive, ex CA speaker, ex KMT
林正杰 Lin Cheng-chieh IND Ex LY (1992-5), ex DPP, ex NP, active in 1980s democratization movement
謝文漢 Gr
Seat currently held by: KMT (won in by-election)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 73.0, Green 22.8
王廷升 Wang Ting-son KMT Incumbent (2010- ), won by-election, father is former county executive 王慶豐
賴坤成 Lie Kuen-cheng DPP Incumbent (2010- ), won by-election, former Taitung City mayor
張智超 Chang Chih-chao IND Supported by county executive 傅崐萁
釋楊悟空 IND Monk, ex TSU
Seat currently held by: IND (blue camp)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 52.6, Green 40.0
楊曜 Yang Yao DPP
林炳坤 Lin Pin-kuan 3rd 無黨團結聯盟, incumbent (1995), blue camp
Jilong City
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 65.0, Green 30.7
謝國樑 Hsieh Kuo-liang KMT Incumbent (2004), ex PFP, father was ex CC speaker 謝修平
林右昌 Lin You-chang DPP
張耿輝 Chang Geng-hui IND City council
黃小陵 3rd 人民民主陣線
周一成 3rd 台灣主義黨
Hsinchu City
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 65.7, Green 35.2
呂學樟 Lu Hsueh-chang KMT Incumbent (2001)
張學舜 Chang Hsueh-shun DPP Ex LY (1998-2004)
趙福龍 IND
王榮德 IND
王瑄 IND
鄧秀寶 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線
Chiayi City
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 49.1, Green 47.1
江義雄 Chiang Yi-hsiung KMT Incumbent (2004)
李俊俋 Li Chun-yi DPP Son of scholar 李鴻禧
陳建豪 3rd 台灣國民會議
Seat currently held by: PFP (won as IND)
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 90.7, Green 4.6
楊應雄 Yang Ying-hsiung KMT CA
陳福海 Chen Fu-hai PFP Incumbent (2008 as IND)
吳成典 Wu Cherng-dean New Ex LY (2001-8)
許乃權 IND
高絃騰 3rd 健保免費連線
Seat currently held by: KMT
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 86.1, Green 8.9
曹爾忠 Tsao Erh-chang KMT Incumbent (1992-2001, 2004- )
陳雪生 Chen Hsueh-sheng IND Ex county executive
陳財能 IND
Plains Aborigines
Seat currently held by: KMT 2, PFP 1
2008 Party Vote in district: Blue 75.0, Green 8.7
廖國棟 Liao Kuo-tung KMT Taitung, Incumbent (2001)
鄭天財 sra 。kacaw KMT Hualien, 台灣省政府副秘書長
林正二 Lin Cheng-er PFP Taitung, ex LY (1998-2010), seat stripped for vote buying
忠仁.達祿斯 Chung-jen Da-lu-si IND New Taipei, CC
笛布斯.顗賚 IND Hualien, CA, lost KMT primary (placed 4th)
洪國治 IND Taoyuan, CA, lost KMT primary (placed 7th)
陳連順 3rd 台灣主義黨 Taoyuan
詹金福 IND Hualien, ex Kaohsiung County CA
馬躍‧比吼 IND Taipei, 紀錄片導演
林金瑛 3rd 中華民國臺灣基本法連線 Taipei, 花蓮玉里阿美族

Place name indicates where candidacy was registered.

Mountain Aborigines
Seat currently held by: KMT 2, IND 1
2008 Party List Vote: Blue 70.3, Green 5.2
孔文吉 Kung Wen-chi KMT Nantou, incumbent (2004)
簡東明 Chien Tung-ming KMT Pingtung, incumbent (2008)
曾智勇 Tseng Chih-yung DPP Pingtung, 屏東縣政府原住民行政處處長
瓦歷斯‧貝林 Walis Pelin PFP Nantou, ex LY (1992-2004)
高金素梅 Kao Chin Su-mei 3rd 無黨團結聯盟 Taipei, incumbent (2001), actress
邱文生 IND Hsinchu, 尖石鄉公所課員

Place name indicates where candidacy was registered.

dividing the 34 party list seats

November 24, 2011

There are 34 party list seats available.  How many should each side expect to get?  It turns out that this is not a very simple question.  My best guess is that the blue side will get about 52% of the party list votes, while the green side will get 48%.  That would work out to an 18-16 split.  However, without changing that 52-48 vote, it is quite easy to imagine the result varying from 19-15 all the way to 16-18.

Each seat should cost about 3% (100%/34=2.94%).  However, there is a 5% threshold.  If your party gets even one vote less than 5%, you get zero seats.  If you cross the threshold, you get at least two seats.

The key factor is that right now all three small parties are somewhere near the 5% threshold.  A tiny difference in votes could make an enormous difference in seats.  Imagine two nearly identical votes:

Scenario 1 Actual vote After 5% threshold seats
KMT 42.02 46.68 16
PFP 4.99    
NP 4.99    
DPP 43.00 47.77 16
TSU 5.00 5.55 2
Scenario 2      
KMT 42.00 44.21 15
PFP 5.00 5.26 2
NP 5.00 5.26 2
DPP 43.01 45.27 15
TSU 4.99    

That’s a three seat swing between the two camps with almost no difference in the popular vote.  Three seats might not sound like a lot, but there are only 113 total seats.  Heck, in 1995 when there were a whopping 165 seats, the KMT won a three seat majority and nearly lost control of the legislature.  Three seats matters a lot.

Of course, this is an extreme example, but any time a party goes over the threshold, it is essentially taking one seat from the other side.  (That is, it gets two seats.  Compared to the distribution if it didn’t pass the threshold, one of those seats comes from the big party in its own camp and the other comes from the big party on the other side.)

Right now, I seem to be in the minority in thinking that continued blue camp control of the legislature is not a sure thing.  However, if I am right, the big parties might want to consider quietly encouraging a few supporters to vote for their allies to make sure they pass the threshold.

(I remember a story about this happening in Germany a few years ago.  The Christian Democrats wanted to make sure that the Free Democrats passed the threshold so that they could form a coalition government.  Of course, under Germany’s fully proportional MMP system, the stakes were higher.  Whereas the TSU would gain only 1.8% (2 of 113) of the seats, the Free Democrats would have gained a full 5%.)

The downside of this strategic threshold voting would be that it would help the small parties survive. One of the main attractions of the new MMM system to the KMT and DPP was that they could starve out the small parties and monopolize their side of the political spectrum.

By the way, my guess right now is that the PFP will easily pass the threshold, but the TSU and New Party will fall short.  I’m going with KMT 15, PFP 3, and DPP 16.


Just a feeling

November 24, 2011

Does anyone else have the feeling that this election is about to turn really, really nasty?  I’m getting the feeling that the accusations and lawsuits about meeting with the gambling capo are just the beginning.  There is nothing like a high-stakes razor-close election to make people put aside all their scruples in pursuit of any tiny advantage.  I hope I’m wrong, but I think the next seven weeks might be toxic.

I’ve changed my mind…

November 23, 2011

On second thought, maybe Paul Kane should win this year’s Confucius Unification Peace Prize.



Is the LY playing field level?

November 22, 2011

Almost everyone I’ve ever talked to thinks that the electoral system for the legislature gives a clear advantage to the KMT.  There is a good reason for this belief.  The KMT wins all the small seats.  It wins 6 aboriginal seats, Jinmen, Lienchiang, Penghu, Taitung, and Hualien.  With only 79 seats (plus 34 list seats), this an enormous head start, and it is almost inconceivable that the DPP could make up that deficit.  As a result, almost everyone believes that (unless the blue camp fragments) the current system pretty much guarantees the blue camp a majority in the legislature.  This is reasonable.  It is also wrong.

I’ve written about this before, and I’ll probably revisit it again in the future.  The current legislative election system actually plays pretty fairly.  This is not by any great design (since no one seems to understand it), but just a case of dumb luck.

There are two things going on.  First, the small districts don’t give the KMT as much of an advantage as most people think.  Second, the KMT suffers a reverse gerrymander in its good districts.

First, the KMT’s advantage in small districts isn’t as overwhelming as it seems.  On the surface, it looks like the KMT starts with an 11-0 advantage in cheap seats.  (They are cheap in the sense that the KMT doesn’t have to “spend” many of its votes to “buy” them.)  Since these seats don’t cost much, the KMT still has almost all of its votes to spend in the remaining 68 seats.

First of all, throw away Hualien.  Hualien is nearly a full sized district.  It is just a bit smaller than average, but there are a six other “full sized” districts with fewer voters.  In fact, as I’ll get to in part 2, Hualien is actually an expensive district.

Second, Taitung and Penghu are small, but they are not sure things for the KMT.  These two seats are very much in play, and the DPP might actually be favored to win Taitung.

Third, Jinmen is a small seat, but the KMT advantage is so overwhelming that it really isn’t excessively cheap.  What?  In 2008, the party list vote was 23555 to 1190 for blue and green camps, respectively.  The blue camp won by 22365 votes.  A margin of 22365 is significant in a regular sized district.  To put that in perspective, if you take both camps’ national party list votes in 2008 and divide by 73 to get the “average” district, the blue camp would win an average district by 19760 votes.  Alternatively, think about it this way.  If you took a tossup district and added Jinmen, you would turn that into a safe KMT seat.  In this sense, Jinmen is nothing like Lienchiang, which is so small that it really is simply a free seat for the KMT.  If you added Lienchiang to a tossup district, you would still have a tossup district.  In all, Jinmen is good for the KMT, but the advantage isn’t as wonderful as you might think.

What about the six aboriginal seats.  If aboriginal voters were awarded seats under the same formula as other voters, they would only have two seats.  (Actually, if they were all lumped together instead of split into plains and mountain aborigines, they would only have one seat, since they combine for fewer voters than Hsinchu County.)  No one is suggesting that aborigines should only have two seats, but there is an argument that they should only have four.  After all, when the legislature was cut in half, aboriginal seats were only reduced from eight to six.  At any rate, the blue camp is clearly getting some cheap seats.  However, the aboriginal seats are a bit like Jinmen.  The blue camp advantage is so overwhelming that the seats aren’t as cheap as they might be.  In 2008 the blue camp won 83000 more aboriginal votes (in the district elections) than the green camp.  That’s a margin of nearly 14000 per seat.  Again, there is an advantage here, but it isn’t distorting the overall outcome as much as you might think.

There is nothing redeeming about Lienchiang.  They should not have a seat.

Overall, my non-scientific gut judgment is that the blue camp has a three or four seat advantage from these smaller districts.  It certainly is not an eleven seat advantage.

What about the second part?  The KMT suffers from a reverse gerrymander in many areas.  Before, we were looking at how the KMT wins several cheap seats.  However, they also pay excessive prices for many seats.  The DPP, in contrast, does not overpay nearly as much.

Here are the blue camp’s and green camp’s ten best seats in terms of the margin of victory over the other camp in party list votes in 2008:

Blue Camp Green Camp
rank District advantage rank district Advantage
1 Hsinchu County 91845 1 Tainan County 2 26496
2 Miaoli 2 64975 2 Tainan County 1 24063
3 Taipei County 9 63515 3 Tainan City 1 12574
4 Taipei County 11 61675 4 Kaohsiung County 3 11548
5 Taipei City 8 60571 5 Pingtung County 1 10369
6 Hualien 60080 6 Chiayi County 2 9998
7 Jilong 50649 7 Tainan County 3 9766
8 Taipei City 6 50521 8 Chiayi County 1 6328
9 Taipei County 8 46971 9 Kaohsiung City 5 6225
10 Taipei City 4 46291 10 Kaohsiung City 2 5505
Sum 597093 Sum 122872
-98800 498293 +98800 221672

For those counting at home, the KMT was winning a lot of seats by enormous margins, while the DPP was winning by much closer margins.  Another way of saying this is that the KMT was paying too much for those seats.

Of course, 2008 was not a normal year.  We want to know that the system is fair in a more normal context.  There is no objective way to do this.  You have to make some sort of assumption, and every assumption is flawed in some fairly obvious way.  That’s because we are essentially guessing.  But bear with me.  The way I’m going to proceed is by looking at the “average district” defined above.  In the average district, the blue camp won by 19760 votes.  Let’s imagine that next year the two camps come out exactly even in party votes, so the green camp has an average of 9880 more votes per district, while the blue camp has 9880 fewer.  After making this adjustment, the blue camp wins its ten best seats by an average of 49829 votes, while the green camp wins its ten best seats by an average of 22167 votes.  In other words, the blue camp is wasting more than twice as many votes on its safe seats as the green camp is on its safe seats.

That is the take-home message.  The KMT benefits (though not as much as everyone believes) from its dominance of the smallest seats.  However, that advantage is cancelled out by a large number of regular sized districts that are packed with very high proportions of blue voters.  The map essentially works as a pro-DPP gerrymander.  In the end, the system is roughly fair.  A party that wins a slight majority in the national vote should probably be able to win a slight majority of seats.