Nominations for the legislative election are taking shape, so I’ve collected some data on the official nominations thus far. Some of the other nominations are basically set, but these are the ones that the KMT and DPP have officially announced.
Just for fun, I’ve also listed my guess as to how each race will turn out. Each race is given one of seven ratings, including Green 3 (nearly certain DPP victory), Green 2 (probable DPP victory), Green 1 (slight advantage to DPP), even (self-explanatory), and Blue 1-3 (figure it out, genius). This is based on the strength of the candidates, the partisan balance in the district, the presidential race, today’s temperature and humidity, the bitterness of the coffee I’m drinking, and about four seconds of reflection on each race. If I were to go back and redo this tomorrow, I’d probably come up with something slightly different.
So far, the most important trend in nominations has been that many incumbents faced serious challenges for their party’s nomination. This is somewhat new in Taiwan. In the past with the old electoral system, incumbents were nearly universally renominated. As I increasingly dislike this new electoral system, I find myself hoping that the next legislature will consider changing it because they fear that they will be the next to lose a primary battle.
Thus far, incumbents who lost their primary fight or probably would have liked to run for re-election but decided to yield before the primary fight include Chu Feng-chih 朱鳳芝 (KMT, Taoyuan 5), John Chiang 蔣孝嚴 (KMT, Taipei 3), Lee Hung-chun 李鴻鈞 (KMT, New Taipei 4), Wu Ching-chih 吳清池 (KMT, New Taipei 7), Lee Chun-yi 李俊毅 (DPP, Tainan 5), Lee Fu-hsing 李復興 (KMT, Kaohsiung 7), Lie Kuen-cheng 賴坤成 (DPP, Taidong). Several others had to fight off intense challenges, including Justin Chou 周守訓 (KMT, Taipei 2), Tsai Cheng-yuan 蔡正元 (KMT, Taipei 4), Kuo Jung-chung 郭榮宗 (DPP, Taoyuan 2), Cheng Ru-fen 鄭汝芬 (KMT, Changhua 3), Hsu Tain-tsair 許添財 (DPP, Tainan 4), and probably some others that I can’t think of right now.
Another random thought: I’m not sure the telephone survey system is working as well as it has in the past. I’m getting the feeling that the political community doesn’t like the results they are getting and might be ready to try some other method of choosing candidates. It might be that they simply need to readjust the scoring system to give more weight to the preferences of party supporters. However, I wonder if the next big change might not be an attempt to try some actual voting, perhaps by copying the American example of having the state run primary elections. No one has brought this up yet, but that seems to me to be the logical next step in the evolution of candidate selection here in Taiwan.
I really shouldn’t say anything in public about the case of Liao Cheng-ching 廖正井, whose conviction for vote buying was thrown out on a technicality by the appeals court. Let’s just say that I’m disgusted with the ruling and appalled that the KMT is seriously considering nominating him to run for his old seat. I’ll stop there.
(Candidates updated June 15. Race evaluations not changed.)
| District | KMT | DPP | FG guess | ||
| Taipei 1 | 丁守中 | Ting Shou-chung | Blue2 | ||
| Taipei 2 | 周守訓 | Justin Chou | 姚文智 | Yao Wen-chih | Green2 |
| Taipei 3 | 羅淑蕾 | Lo Shu-lei | 簡余晏 | Chien Yu-yan | Blue2 |
| Taipei 4 | 蔡正元 | Tsai Cheng-yuan | 李建昌 | Li Chien-chang | Blue2 |
| Taipei 5 | 林郁方 | Lin Yu-fang | 顏聖冠 | Yan Sheng-guan | Blue2 |
| Taipei 6 | 蔣乃辛 | Chiang Nai-shin | 趙士強 | George Chao | Blue3 |
| Taipei 7 | 費鴻泰 | Alex Fai | Blue3 | ||
| Taipei 8 | 賴士葆 | Lai Shyh-bao | Blue3 | ||
| N. Taipei 1 | 吳育昇 | Wu Yu-sheng | 何博文 | Ho Bo-wen | Blue2 |
| N. Taipei 2 | 錢薇娟 | Chien Wei-chuan | 林淑芬 | Lin Shu-fen | Green2 |
| N. Taipei 3 | 李乾龍 | Li Chien-lung | 高志鵬 | Gao Jyh-peng | Green2 |
| N. Taipei 4 | 林濁水 | Lin Cho-shui | Even | ||
| N. Taipei 5 | 黃志雄 | Huang Chih-hsiung | 廖本煙 | Liao Pen-yen | Green1 |
| N. Taipei 6 | 林鴻池 | Lin Hung-chih | 周雅淑 | Chou Ya-shu | Blue1 |
| N. Taipei 7 | 羅致政 | Lo Chih-cheng | Blue1 | ||
| N. Taipei 8 | 張慶忠 | Chang Ching-chung | Blue3 | ||
| N. Taipei 9 | 林德福 | Lin Te-fu | Blue3 | ||
| N. Taipei 10 | 盧嘉辰 | Lu Chia-chen | 莊碩漢 | Chuang Suo-hang | Blue1 |
| N. Taipei 11 | 羅明才 | Lo Ming-tsai | 高建智 | Kao Chien-chih | Blue3 |
| N. Taipei 12 | 李慶華 | Lee Ching-hua | 沈發惠 | Shen Fa-hui | Blue3 |
| Ilan | 林建榮 | Lin Chien-jung | 陳歐珀 | Chen Ou-po | Green1 |
| Taoyuan 1 | 陳根德 | Chen Ken-te | Blue2 | ||
| Taoyuan 2 | 郭榮宗 | Kuo Jung-chung | Green2 | ||
| Taoyuan 3 | 陳學聖 | Apollo Chen | 黃仁杼 | Huang Jen-shu | Blue2 |
| Taoyuan 4 | 楊麗環 | Yang Li-huan | 黃適卓 | David Huang | Blue1 |
| Taoyuan 5 | 陳萬得 | Chen Wan-te | Blue2 | ||
| Taoyuan 6 | 孫大千 | Sun Ta-chien | Blue3 | ||
| Hsinchu Cnty | 徐欣瑩 | Hsu Hsin-ying | 彭紹瑾 | Perng Shaw-jiin | Blue1 |
| Miaoli 1 | 陳超明 | Chen Chao-ming | 杜文卿 | Tu Wen-ching | Blue1 |
| Miaoli 2 | 徐耀昌 | Hsu Yao-chang | 楊長鎮 | Yang Chang-chen | Blue3 |
| Taichung 1 | 陳添旺 | Chen Tien-wang | 蔡其昌 | Tsai Chi-chang | Green2 |
| Taichung 2 | 李順涼 | Li Shun-liang | Blue2 | ||
| Taichung 3 | 楊瓊瓔 | Yang Chiung-ying | 童瑞陽 | Tong Rui-yang | Blue1 |
| Taichung 4 | 蔡錦隆 | Tsai Chin-lung | 張廖萬堅 | Chang Liao Wan-chien | Blue2 |
| Taichung 5 | 盧秀燕 | Lu Shiow-yen | 謝明源 | Hsieh Ming-yuan | Blue2 |
| Taichung 6 | 黃義交 | Hwang Yih-jiau | 林佳龍 | Lin Chia-lung | Even |
| Taichung 7 | 簡肇棟 | Chien Chao-tung | Green1 | ||
| Taichung 8 | 江啟臣 | Chiang Chi-chen | 郭俊銘 | Kuo Chun-ming | Green1 |
| Changhua 1 | 王惠美 | Wang Hui-mei | 陳進丁 | Chen Chin-ting | Green1 |
| Changhua 2 | 林滄敏 | Lin Tsang-min | 黃秀芳 | Huang Hsiu-fang | Blue2 |
| Changhua 3 | 鄭汝芬 | Cheng Ru-fen | 江昭儀 | Chiang Chao-i | Blue2 |
| Changhua 4 | 蕭景田 | Hsiao Ching-tien | 魏明谷 | Wei Ming-ku | Blue2 |
| Nantou 1 | 馬文君 | Ma Wen-chun | 張國鑫 | Chang Kuo-hsin | Blue2 |
| Nantou 2 | 林明湊 | Lin Ming-chen | 賴燕雪 | Lai Yen-hsueh | Blue2 |
| Yunlin 1 | 張嘉郡 | Chang Chia-chun | 陳憲中 | Chen Hsien-chung | Green1 |
| Yunlin 2 | 劉建國 | Liu Chien-kuo | Green2 | ||
| Chiayi Cnty 1 | 蔡易餘 | Tsai Yi-yu | Green2 | ||
| Chiayi Cnty 2 | 陳明文 | Chen Ming-wen | Green3 | ||
| Tainan 1 | 葉宜津 | Yeh Yi-jin | Green3 | ||
| Tainan 2 | 黃偉哲 | Huang Wei-cher | Green3 | ||
| Tainan 3 | 陳亭妃 | Chen Ting-fei | Green2 | ||
| Tainan 4 | 許添財 | Hsu Tain-tsair | Green2 | ||
| Tainan 5 | 李全教 | Lee Chuan-chiao | Green1 | ||
| Kaohsiung 1 | 鍾紹和 | Chung Shao-ho | 邱議瑩 | Chiu Yu-ying | Even |
| Kaohsiung 2 | 林益世 | Lin Yi-shih | 邱志偉 | Chiu Chih-wei | Even |
| Kaohsiung 3 | 黃昭順 | Huang Chao-shun | 林瑩蓉 | Ling Ying-jung | Blue2 |
| Kaohsiung 4 | 邱于軒 | Chiu Yu-hsuan | 林岱華 | Lin Tai-hua | Green2 |
| Kaohsiung 5 | 羅世雄 | Lwo Shih-hsiung | 管碧玲 | Kuan Bi-ling | Green1 |
| Kaohsiung 6 | 侯彩鳳 | Ho Tsai-feng | 李昆澤 | Lee Kun-tse | Green1 |
| Kaohsiung 7 | 邱毅 | Chou Yi | 趙天麟 | Chao Tien-lin | Green2 |
| Kaohsiung 8 | 江玲君 | Chiang Lin-chun | 許智傑 | Hsu Chih-chieh | Blue1 |
| Kaohsiung 9 | 郭玟成 | Kuo Wen-cheng | Green2 | ||
| Pingdong 1 | 羅志明 | Lo Chih-ming | 蘇震清 | Su Chen-ching | Green2 |
| Pingdong 2 | 王進士 | Wang Chin-shi | 李世斌 | Li Shih-bin | Even |
| Pingdong 3 | 潘孟安 | Pan Men-an | Green3 | ||
| Taidong | 劉櫂豪 | Liu Chao-hao | Blue1 | ||
| Hualian | 王廷升 | Wang Ting-son | 賴坤成 | Lie Kuen-cheng | Blue3 |
| Penghu | 湯曜 | Tang Yao | Blue2 | ||
| Jilong | 謝國樑 | Hsieh Kuo-liang | Blue3 | ||
| Hsinchu City | 呂學樟 | Lu Hsueh-chang | 張學舜 | Chang Hsueh-shun | Blue3 |
| Chiayi City | 江義雄 | Chiang Yi-hsiung | 李俊俋 | Li Chun-yi | Green1 |
| Jinmen | 楊應雄 | Yang Ying-hsiung | Blue3 | ||
| Lianjiang | 曹爾忠 | Tsao Erh-chang | Blue3 | ||
| Plains Abs. | 廖國棟 | Liao Kuo-tung | |||
| 鄭天財 | Cheng Tien-tsai | ||||
| Mountain Abs. | 孔文吉 | Kung Wen-chi | |||
| 簡東明 | Chien Tung-ming |
June 5, 2011 at 8:52 pm |
That’s quite a resource. The names both in Chinese and English make it particularly useful for searches in the online press.
But I’m getting the impression that you find it easier to write “Blue3”, than “Green3”. Are you afraid of getting disappointed by the actual results in January?
June 6, 2011 at 10:56 am |
The English names are taken from the Legislative Yuan website for everyone who is or has been a legislator. For everyone who has not, I just made up something that seems about right to me. So these names might not all be correct.
There are more blue3s than green3s because of the way the electorate is divided. There are many places that the blue camp has an overwhelming advantage, and not so many where the green camp does. Often this coincides with the distribution of mainlander voters, who historically vote about 90% for the blue camp. Think about it this way: if a district has 20% mainlanders and the KMT wins 90% of those voters, that gives it an 18-2 lead. The DPP has to win the other 80% by a 49-31 margin, or 61%. That is a very tall order. Of the districts that I rated Blue3, maybe only Miaoli 2 doesn’t fit this description. (Granted, the residents of Jinmen and Lianjiang are not usually considered to be mainlanders, but they similarly do not generally consider a vote for the DPP to be a reasonable option.) Historically, the KMT has been competitive everywhere, so the fact that there are any Green3s at all is something new in Taiwanese politics.
June 6, 2011 at 2:17 pm |
Recently there has been reasonable speculation that the Pan-Blue Coalition is very likely going to be split in Taoyuan 3 with 鄭金玲, Changhwa 1 with 林益邦 and Changhwa 3 with 陳文漢.
Assuming that these splits do occur, how would this affect your ratings on these electorates?
June 6, 2011 at 8:37 pm |
My ratings for Taoyuan 3 and Changhua 1 already take those potential splits into account. If the KMT manages to only have one candidate in Taoyuan 3, there is almost no way it can lose that election. Changhua 1 is different. The DPP has nominated a former independent legislator who has quite a bit of strength in this district, and it is possible that the DPP could win this race even if the KMT did not split. Also, Lin’s father was provincial assembly member and legislator from Lukang for over two decades, so Lin’s potential candidacy has to be taken seriously. If it does end up in a three way race, the DPP should probably win. I had not heard about the potential split in Changhua 3. This one could go in two different ways. On the one hand, Changhua 3 is the kind of very rural district in which personal connections matter a lot. The DPP candidate is comparatively weak in this area, and I can imagine that he comes in third in a three-way race. On the other hand, this might be the type of place where the concurrent presidential election nationalizes the legislative election. Tsai will likely win by a narrow margin here. That might be enough to drag the weak DPP legislative candidate along to victory in a three-way race. Let’s call it a blue 1.
June 7, 2011 at 5:14 pm |
A question I have: Can they do post voting interviews like they do in the US to get a feel of where the electorate is?
June 8, 2011 at 4:20 pm |
There have been two exit polls in Taiwan, but there will be no more in the foreseeable future because the Central Election Commission has decided that they violate the law.
June 9, 2011 at 12:20 pm |
Good day Garlic:
It nice to posting again. I appreciate you quick analysis but you are missing quite some Dpp nominees. Here’s a link for a list of Dpp nominees from their official site:
http://dpponline.blogspot.com/
(There’s more down the page, you need to press “Older Post”)
June 9, 2011 at 4:08 pm |
Thanks for the links. Some of these people still have not been officially nominated. That is, the party hasn’t yet issued a nomination document posted on their official website (not the blog). So I was looking at a different set of web pages.
June 22, 2011 at 1:21 am |
Good day Garlic:
Will you be providing an update on this list since new candidates have been added? I do believe there will be some discrepancies as a result of the popularity of some candidates.
Also, the Dpp candidate for Taipei 6, his name is 趙士強.
July 4, 2011 at 5:14 pm |
Rust, thanks for catching that mistake.
July 6, 2011 at 2:26 am |
Can u — based on the numbers you guess — do a probability forecast on the seats each party will win ? That will be fun …
July 6, 2011 at 5:20 pm |
Maybe one should wait until the KMT and the PFP have sorted out their differences about their LY nominations – if they happen to sort them out, that is.
But yes – a forecast would be nice. Big task for a blog, though. Maybe you should conduct your own phone pollings, as well, FrozenGarlic?
July 6, 2011 at 8:10 pm |
A probability forecast? You mean like Nate Silver does? Sorry, I think that is beyond my limited time resources. I barely have time to write as it is. Besides, I think his models use polling data, and there aren’t many polls released on how Changhua 3 is going to turn out.