As much as it pains me to do this while I still haven’t even started digesting last week’s election, I have been forced by UDN and China Times to start a page showing presidential race polling results. Can we wait a while before we start that race? Please? I only want a month or two. I’m just not psychologically ready for the next election to start yet.
In a related story, both polls asked questions about the shooting, and both found that about 4% of respondents claimed that they changed their behavior in reaction to the shooting. However, this doesn’t mean you can just subtract 4% from KMT candidates’ vote shares to get the “real” vote (ie: what would have happened if the shooting had never occurred). Some of the people who were mobilized to vote or changed their votes ended up voting for the DPP. The net effect may have benefited the KMT, but these results suggest the effect was very small. (Surveys can’t tell you whether the effect was 1% or 2% because those are statistically not different from each other. However, we can probably be sure that the effect wasn’t over 5%. At any rate, I’m going to stick with the qualitative conclusion of “small.”