oops, no more polls

I generally go searching for new polls once every few days.  It isn’t my goal to be the most up to date source, so I don’t worry if it is several days before I get around to posting new poll results.  However, tonight when I started trying to collect old poll results, I ran into a problem.  The TVBS site has taken down all their old poll results.  We have entered the 10 day blackout period on publishing new poll before the election.  Legally, it is just prohibited to publish new polls, you are allowed to show old poll results.  I guess TVBS is being overly careful.

Anyway, I spent a few hours with Google, and I hope I’ve been able to find all the recently published polls.  Enjoy them, there won’t be any more.  Well, if you have inside information, there will be.  Unfortunately, I don’t have any inside information.  If I did, I wouldn’t be able to talk about it anyway.

The final few polls show the DPP is maintaining its big leads in the two southern cities.  It looks like the race in Taichung is tightening up.  I don’t think the KMT will lose, but a double digit win looks less and less likely.  If you had told the DPP in May, when Taichung looked like an impending disaster, that they would lose by single digits, they would have taken that in a heartbeat.  Xinbei also seems to be tightening up.  The recent polls all show the candidates within the margin of error or just beyond it.  Taipei City seems to be going in the other direction, however.  In the last month or so, the polls have looked better and better for Hau.

I am a little unsure about those trends in Xinbei and Taipei, though.  I think that might be heavily influenced by the organizations that have published polls in each place.  For some reason, organizations that tend to show better results for the DPP (Liberty Times, China Times) have done more polls in Xinbei, and those that tend to be better for the KMT (UDN, TVBS) have done more polls in Taipei.  On the other hand, the underlying political map could be coming through, as people drift back to their traditional partisan homes.

2 Responses to “oops, no more polls”

  1. A-gu Says:

    http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/nov/16/today-p5.htm

    As you can see, Liberty Times is reporting that the media is basically not supposed to be giving out any poll information, whether new or old, or using it in new publications. Still, the TVBS action does seem to be overly cautious; the old Liberty Times polls are still on their site.

    http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/nov/6/today-t3.htm
    http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/nov/10/today-fo6.htm
    http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/nov/13/today-fo1.htm
    http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/nov/16/today-fo5.htm

  2. frozengarlic Says:

    Hmm. You seem to be right. Hopefully, the CEC doesn’t care about people like me. If they do, I hope they’ll be nice enough to tell me before they slap me with a huge fine.

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