Commonwealth Magazine has published survey results showing satisfaction rates for each county/city executive.
Their interpretation of these results is that the top six are all DPP governed counties, while the bottom twelve are all KMT governed. I have taken the liberty of changing Yang Qiuxing’s party from DPP to IND, since it isn’t quite right to continue to call him a DPP politican.
While the difference in performance by the two big parties is stark, I don’t think it is quite as damning as Commonwealth makes it out to be. For one thing, their methodology isn’t great. The sample size is between 500 and 650 in each county, which means the sampling error is +/- 4% or so. In other words, if two numbers are within about 7%, there might be no statistically significant difference between them. (Publishing such estimates to the second decimal place is ludicrous; with these sample sizes, even one decimal place is pushing it.) So pick a scrum. For example, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between # 6 and #14 or #18 and #21; if you did another poll with exactly the same methodology, you’d probably find an entirely different ordering. On the other hand, we can be pretty sure that the top 5 are better than the bottom 10, and that the DPP executives, as a group, are better than the KMT executives.
The other big thing that jumps out at me is how high these numbers are. Commonwealth didn’t give their question wording and response categories, but I assume they are comparable to other such surveys. Note that the worst satisfaction rating is 45% (Zhou Xiwei, Taipei County). In contrast, President Ma’s and Premier Wu’s satisfaction ratings are only 31% and 35%, respectively, according to a poll published by Global Views on August 20. It’s not that Taiwanese are shy about expressing dissatisfaction. It might be that they are just less critical of local government, or it might be that everyone is doing a passable job. (Of course, this might be an indication of how abysmal the performance of the national government is, but I tend to lean to the methodology or different standards explanations.)
All that said, don’t think that the various candidates aren’t going to make hay over this survey.
|1||Kaohsiung County||楊秋興||Yang Qiuxing||IND||80.29|
|2||Ilan County||林聰賢||Lin Congxian||DPP||75.20|
|3||Kaohsiung City||陳菊||Chen Ju||DPP||72.12|
|4||Pingdong County||曹啟鴻||Cao Qihong||DPP||71.15|
|5||Tainan City||許添財||Xu Tiancai||DPP||70.83|
|6||Chiayi County||張花冠||Zhang Huaguan||DPP||68.38|
|7||Hualian County||傅崑萁||Fu Kunqi||PFP||68.07|
|8||Chiayi City||黃敏惠||Huang Minhui||KMT||67.46|
|9||Lianjiang County||楊綏生||Yang Suisheng||KMT||66.62|
|10||Changhua County||卓伯元||Zhuo Boyuan||KMT||66.00|
|11||Yunlin County||蘇治芬||Su Zhifen||DPP||65.75|
|12||Jinmen County||李沃土||Li Wotu||KMT||65.22|
|13||Tainan County||蘇煥智||Su Huanzhi||DPP||64.87|
|14||Penghu County||王乾發||Wang Qianfa||KMT||63.93|
|15||Miaoli County||劉政鴻||Liu Zhenghong||KMT||62.69|
|16||Nantou County||李朝卿||Li Chaoqing||KMT||60.33|
|17||Taidong County||黃健庭||Huang Jianting||KMT||58.79|
|18||Taichung City||胡志強||Hu Zhiqiang||KMT||56.27|
|19||Taoyuan County||吳志揚||Wu Zhiyang||KMT||55.36|
|20||Hsinchu City||許明財||Xu Mingcai||KMT||54.28|
|21||Taipei City||郝龍斌||Hao Longbin||KMT||52.26|
|22||Hsinchu County||邱鏡淳||Qiu Jingchung||KMT||47.74|
|23||Taichung County||黃仲生||Huang Zhongsheng||KMT||46.98|
|24||Keelung City||張通榮||Zhang Tongrong||KMT||46.97|
|25||Taipei County||周錫瑋||Zhou Xiwei||KMT||45.09|