Archive for September, 2010

One Side One Country Alliance Roster

September 30, 2010

I found a list of members in Chen Shui-bian’s current political vehicle, the One Side One Country Alliance (OSOCA, 一邊一國連線, my translation).  I’m not sure how this list was compiled.  My guess is that it was released to the media by Chen’s people.  Lists like this are invariably flawed.  The people issuing the list want to make their organization look as impressive as possible, so they put lots of names on it.  People named on these types of lists, by contrast, are sometimes surprised to see themselves listed as members of something that they just attended a few functions for.  In other words, don’t take this list as established fact.

On the other hand, everyone on this list should more or less have good relations with the former president.  One of the things we will want to know when this election is over is whether Chen’s influence is waning or not.  The electoral fate of these candidates will be a good indicator.  If all of them win, you can bet that he will try to put together something similar for the next legislative elections.  If they fail miserably, it will be one more sign that Taiwan is moving on from the Chen era.

My first impression is that this is a really impressive list.  Chen has managed to put together a group of candidates that covers most districts in the five municipalities.  Moreover, many of the ones he is missing are small.  Most voters will have an opportunity to express support for Chen if they wish.  Of course, it is debatable whether a vote for Chen Bifeng or Zheng Xinzhu should be understood as a vote for Chen.  Those two and several others are long term incumbents with their own constituents, and it is arguable that Chen is piggybacking on their popularity.  But after all, that’s usually true of political coalitions.

OSOCA City Council candidates

district name name party
Taipei 1 陳碧峰 Chen Bifeng DPP
Taipei 2 江志銘 Jiang Zhiming DPP
Taipei 3 許家蓓 Xu Jiabei DPP
Taipei 5 童仲彥 Tong Zhongyan DPP
Taipei 6 柯景昇 Ke Jingsheng DPP
Xinbei 3 陳啟能 Chen Qineng DPP
Xinbei 4 王淑慧 Wang Shuhui DPP
Xinbei 5 林秀惠 Lin Xiuhui DPP
Xinbei 6 許昭興 Xu Zhaoxing DPP
Xinbei 7 吳琪銘 Wu Qiming DPP
Xinbei 10 周雅玲 Zhou Yaling DPP
Taichung 3 劉淑蘭 Liu Shulan DPP
Taichung 7 何文海 He Wenhai DPP
Taichung 10 江正吉 Jiang Zhengji DPP
Taichung 11 邱素貞 Qiu Suzhen DPP
Taichung 13 劉錦和 Liu Jinhe DPP
Tainan 2 賴惠員 Lai Huiyuan DPP
Tainan 4 郭秀珠 Guo Xiuzhu IND
Tainan 5 陳朝來 Chen Chaolai DPP
Tainan 7 林志聰 Lin Zhicong DPP
Tainan 8 王峻潭 Wang Juntan DPP
Tainan 9 施重男 Shi Chongnan IND
Tainan 10 黃永田 Huang Yongtian IND
Tainan 11 唐碧娥 Tang Bi’e DPP
Tainan 12 邱莉莉 Qiu Lili DPP
Tainan 13 李文正 Li Wenzheng DPP
Tainan 14 王定宇 Wang Dingyu DPP
Tainan 16 曾王雅雲 Zeng Wang Yayun DPP
Kaohsiung 1 鍾盛有 Zhong Shengyou IND
Kaohsiung 2 張文瑞 Zhang Wenrui DPP
Kaohsiung 3 陳政聞 Chen Zhengwen DPP
Kaohsiung 4 黃昭星 Huang Zhaoxing DPP
Kaohsiung 5 林芳如 Lin Fangru DPP
Kaohsiung 7 鄭新助 Zheng Xinzhu IND
Kaohsiung 9 陳慧文 Chen Huiwen DPP
Kaohsiung 10 陳致中 Chen Zhizhong IND
Kaohsiung 11 韓賜村 Han Sicun DPP

how to handicap city council races

September 28, 2010

To me, the city council races are at least as interesting as the mayoral races.  Oh sure, they are nowhere near as consequential and most people don’t pay any attention, but for me, the complexity and uncertainty of a multi-seat SNTV race beats the glamour of a single seat executive race any day.  But you could probably tell that I’m a little strange by my long, long tables.

Today I’m going to try to spell out the mental model I have for these local races.  This is not a precise statement.  Most of these ideas have been floating around in my head in a fuzzy haze for several years, but I’ve never tried to lay them all out on paper.

City council races are hard to think about because they live in an intermediate level.  They aren’t as partisan and issue-oriented as legislative races.  But they aren’t as exclusively local as some of the more rural county assembly races (or as most people think they are).  You need ten to twenty thousand votes to win a race, which means you can personally know more of your voters than a county assembly member but fewer than a legislator.  And these politicians are not always ready for the national spotlight, but not all of them are simply locally oriented scions of influential families or small-time local power brokers.  I also think that the common Taipei stereotype of a county assembly member – a betel nut chewing guy with a bit of money, a construction company, ties to organized crime, and no political ideals at all – is very often quite misleading.  Politics is a difficult game to master, and these guys deserve a bit more respect, or at least a bit more careful examination.

So my question for the day is, how do I look at a field of candidates and determine which ones are going to do well and which ones are not?  Alternatively, how do you win a city council election?  The best way would be to immerse myself in the race, talking to people and learning the intricate stories of each candidate in the race.  However, I don’t do this because (a) I’m not a very good soaker-and-poker and (b) there are too many soap operas for any single observer to follow.  Instead, I look at a lot of less telling variables.  This inevitably means that I will miss a lot of important factors, but hopefully I understand a little bit about a lot of races.

I weight the following factors most heavily:

  1. Party and partisan factors
  2. The candidate’s past electoral record
  3. Family connections
  4. The geographic structure of a candidate’s vote coalition
  5. How the candidate matches up with the rest of the field

There is a common notion that parties don’t matter in local elections.  Partly this is because candidates almost never talk about party positions or advertise their party affiliations in county assembly races.  Partly this is because the DPP doesn’t get anywhere near the number of votes in local elections as in national-level elections (or county/city executive races).  However, city council elections in urban areas are not quite like rural county assembly elections.  In Taipei City, the results in city council elections are not that dissimilar to legislative elections.  In Kaohsiung, there is a bit less similarity, and as you go out to the small towns in Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Taichung, partisan factors will matter less and less.  However, in these elections, partisan factors never stop mattering.  There are always a significant number of voters who will vote for a DPP or a KMT candidate.  All the other factors matter a lot more here than in national elections, but the partisan structure of a district is still a good place to start.

So how do you judge the partisan balance of a district?  I use three different things.  I start with the partisan results from the last city council elections.  I compare that to the partisan balance of the district in national elections.  The spread between these two gives me something of an indication of how much partisanship matters and how much everything else matters.  In the long run, I expect the gap to narrow significantly.  Usually this means that I expect independents to lose ground, the KMT to stay about the same or lose (depending on whether independents are strong in that district), and the DPP to make gains.  The third thing I look at is the larger partisan trend in that particular year.  For example, DPP city council candidates in Tainan should have a few extra votes to work with this year because this looks like a good year for the DPP in general and particularly in the Tainan mayoral race.  In concrete numbers, how much should this be worth?  Well, that’s hard to say, so let’s not try.

Second, I look at what the candidate has done in the past.  Elections are hard, and the best way to convince me that a particular candidate can win votes is to have previously done it.  In fact, one of the first things that every candidate in an SNTV election has to do is to convince voters that he has a chance to win.  If voters get a notion that you might be a turkey, you are in trouble.  Incumbents have a leg up in that voters usually aren’t scared that they will be throwing away votes on incumbents.  If you are a brand new candidate in your first election, that’s a different story.  Unless I know something else about you, I’ll probably assume you are a turkey.

Incumbency is good, but it isn’t the best thing to have on your resume.  My rank-ordering is as follows:

  1. Legislator
  2. Town mayor
  3. Incumbent city councilor
  4. Town councilor
  5. Li (village, ward, neighborhood) head
  6. Non-elected position

The legislature is a much better job than the city council, and most legislators would sooner eat glass than stoop to such a lowly position.  However, not everyone feels this way.  There are four former legislators running in this years election (Qin Huizhu, Wang Shijian, Wang Shuhui, and Tang Bi’e).  They will all be heavily favored to win.  One more former legislator, Wang Shixun, is already out.  Wang shocked everyone by losing in the DPP primary.  I guess not every legislator is a sure bet.

Legislators are kind of a curiosity; town mayors are everywhere.  Mayors are almost always strong county assembly candidates.  Since executives have a budget to spread around, almost all politicians would rather be a mayor than an assembly member.  In fact, many, perhaps most, mayoral candidates are incumbent county assembly members looking to move up the ladder.  In the past, mayors generally only changed to assembly races after they had served their two mayoral terms.  This year, since towns will no longer be independent administrative units and there will be no more mayors, a lot of single term mayors are also moving into the city council elections.

Incumbent city council members are next in my hierarchy.

Fourth are town council members.  Town councils are usually ignored, even by people like me.  They don’t have much power at all, and it usually only takes a few hundred votes to win a seat.  I look at these people as minor leaguers trying to move up to the major leagues.  What they have done is good practice, and they have shown rudimentary abilities, but winning a city council seat is much, much harder than winning a town council seat.

Li heads are the lowest on my ranking of elected jobs.  (It’s hard to translate li.  A li is a neighborhood with anywhere from 500 to 10000 voters.)  Li heads are geographically limited.  While town council candidates have to develop ties across a dozen or two li, li heads are focused in one small area.  It is very hard to expand on this base.

All elected positions are better than all non-elected positions.  When I see that someone is head of the local fireman’s association, parents association, or social welfare NGO, I give this almost zero weight.  These positions are something like Treasurer of the Spanish Club on an American student’s college application.  Everyone has an impressive list, but they are usually just filler.  They don’t tell you much about the politician’s ability to persuade voters to support him.  Even positions in the local farmers association, which is an important organization in electoral politics, don’t tend to tell you much about how well a candidate will do.

The resume has a very short shelf life (or if you prefer, a high discount rate).  If you were elected mayor eight years ago but lost a county assembly race four years ago, I’m not very impressed.  I look a bit more favorably on incumbents who have been re-elected three or four times than on those who have only won once, but the difference is not overwhelming.  Lots of longtime incumbents lose in every election cycle.  In other words, just because you proved repeatedly you could do it in the past doesn’t mean that you will be able to do it again.  (If you’ve never done it before, the odds are really stacked against you.)

Third, I look at family connections.  This is the same logic.  If a family member has been able to collect lots of votes, you probably will be able to as well.  Family members are usually able to transfer votes from husband to wife or from father to son/daughter.  (I’m not sure why, but non-family support (within factions or to a non-family protégé) doesn’t seem to transfer.  I don’t understand this very well, but blood seems to matter a lot.)  So if your father is a mayor or incumbent county assembly member, you have a pretty good shot.  If your father was mayor a decade ago, that may not be so helpful.  If your father has passed away, you might be in real trouble.  Children almost never have the wide set of connections and influence that their parents, who are successful politicians after all, have.

Fourth, I care about how a candidate’s support is geographically distributed.  This variable matters mostly for more rural areas.  It is almost entirely irrelevant in Taipei City, but it can be decisive in other areas.  The geographical distribution reflects the type of coalition a candidate is building.  Candidates who rely on networks of friends, relatives, and neighbors in a traditional organization-dominated campaign will usually have their votes concentrated in a subset of the entire district.  Often these bailiwicks are organized along township lines.

Bailiwicks are not necessarily a good thing or a bad thing – sometimes it doesn’t matter if you get your 10000 votes in a small area or spread across the entire district.  But it can be important.  In a very complex district with lots of candidates, a well-defined bailiwick can be an effective defense against strategic voting.  An ability to get lots of votes in a small area is also one way to break through partisan structures.  However, they can also be a prison; many candidates find it extremely hard to find new sources of votes outside their traditional bailiwick.  If there are no other candidates in the race from your bailiwick, you might have an easy election.  If there are lots of candidates fighting for pieces of the same small pie, you might be in real trouble.

This brings us to the fifth factor, the rest of the field.  Depending on how many candidates are incumbents, from your party, or from your home area, your chances of winning might be significantly higher or lower.

I don’t think of this as a deterministic model.  I’m not going to tell you that so-and-so is a sure thing to win.  This is a probabilistic model.  So-and-so has a pretty good chance of winning.  There are always a lot of things that I don’t see that are critical.  These factors are crude proxies for some of the things that really matter.

I should probably illustrate this mental model with an actual race, but I have no energy to do so tonight.  I’ll probably get around to that sometime in the future.

City council incumbents

September 20, 2010

When they announced the numbers of seats in each of the direct municipalities, it was clear that the elections would be very different in terms of degree of difficulty.  Xinbei City is essentially our control case.  The number of seats in Xinbei, 66,  is the same as the number of seats elected in the old Taipei County in 2005.  So winning a seat this year is roughly as easy as it was before.  (Ok, if you want to be a stickler, Taipei County only had 65 seats in 2005.  They added one more aboriginal seat this year.)

The formulae converting population to seats were not quite the same for counties and direct municipalities.  So in order to hold Xinbei City constant, they had to adjust the law for direct municipalities.  As a result, even though there has been no administrative change in Taipei City, it increases from 52 seats to 63 seats.  This makes a seat in the Taipei City Council easier than ever to win.

The other three direct municipalities are much more difficult.  Because they smashed together two independent administrative units, each of which had its own council, the resulting councils are relatively small.  Taichung goes from 103 seats to only 63; Tainan is reduced from 91 to 57 seats, and Kaohsiung goes from 98 to 66 seats.  In short, it is much harder to win a seat this year than it was last time around.

You can see this reflected in whether incumbents decided to run for re-election.  I put together a data set of 410 winners last time around.[1] 342 (83%) have registered to run for re-election.  What of the other 68?  Conventionally, we would say they “retired.”  However, that term holds a lot of possibilities, and I’m really interested in what happened to them.

Quick Google searches turned up quite a bit of interesting tidbits.  7 of the 68 were ineligible.  2 died in office, and 5 were stripped of their seats by the courts for various offences.  8 others had court cases or other scandals reported in the news.  (My favorite was Tainan City Council member Li Qingxin, who went out to a KTV, met a prostitute, and brought her back to the lounge in the city council where he and his new friend were spotted by his son and daughter who he employed on his staff.  They quickly called their mother, and she and the daughter confronted him while the son took pictures on his cell phone.)  3 others won seats in the legislature.

There are also people who retire in order to pass the seat to the next generation.  I found news stories of 7 such cases, including one Taichung City Councilor took a post in the city government and is trying to elect his wife to his old seat.  There is also a case of a councilor who died and whose son is running for the seat, but I don’t want to double count that case.

This accounts for 25 of the 68 “retirees.”  14 more lost primaries and did not register for the general election.  That makes only 29 of 410 incumbents who “willingly” yielding their seats.  That is a very low number, and even that still hides some people who really wanted to run for re-election but were convinced or pressured to step aside.  And, of course, I might have missed some scandals or children.

Geographically, there is a clear difference between Taipei and everywhere else.  In Taipei, one person is now in the legislature, two are running their children, and the other 49 are ALL running for re-election.   Of Xinbei’s 65 incumbents, one is running his son, 57 are running for re-election, and there are 7 unexplained retirements.  In the other three cities, retirement rates are much higher (56 of 292).  On the other hand, once you correct for all the stripped seats, scandals, and so on, the proportion (22 of 292) who willingly stepped aside is, if anything, lower than Xinbei.

So, let’s talk about incumbents in party primaries.   179 incumbents competed for KMT nominations.  149 won.  (148 registered for the general election.  The other dropped out.)  We really care most about the losers.   Of the 30 losers, 7 accepted the results and retired.  23 registered for the general election as independents.

On the DPP side, 114 incumbents contested the primaries, and 12 lost.  Of those 12, 7 accepted the loss.  5 did not.  1 is running as a TSU nominee, and the other 4 are running as independents.

Incumbents losing primaries are interesting because this is one measure of party strength and cohesion.  Parties want primaries to be binding, for losers to accept losing, so that there aren’t too many candidates drawing from the same pool of votes in the general election.  From this perspective, the KMT’s primaries look like a colossal failure, with 23 of 30 losers not accepting the result.  However, we are only halfway through the game.  Losers don’t accept losing because they have strong commitments to party ideals, they accept losing because they don’t think they can with the general election without the party nomination.  In other words, voters can enforce party discipline by not voting for primary losers.  We can’t tell how strong the party is or how successful the primary process was until after the general election.

[1] There were only 409 seats.  I added Lin Guocheng in Taipei City.  Cai Kunlong was stripped of his seat, and the seat was awarded to Lin.  There were four other people I know of who were stripped of their seats, but I don’t know who, if anyone, replaced them.

2010 CC candidates finalized

September 19, 2010

Registration for this year’s elections is now closed, no one else is allowed in the pool.

Here are all the candidates for the city council elections.  In each district, I provided a summary of the previous election to give an idea of what kind of competition to expect.  The seats on the first line are the seats to be elected this year.  The seats below that are the seats elected last time.  As you can see, the numbers are not the same.

My lists of candidates comes complete with notes on who these people are.  There are a few abbreviations:

I: incumbent

CA: County Assembly

CC: City Council

LY: Legislator or Legislative Yuan, as appropriate

OSOCA: One Side One Country Alliance (former President Chen’s political vehicle)

Lots of the material in the notes is culled from media reports over the past couple of days.  I expect there will be more info over the next few days as newspapers go through the various districts.  So I’ll add to this table as we go along.  If you know anything interesting about any of these candidates, please volunteer your info.

[update Sept 26]: I have now added stats on eligible voters in the 2005/6 election in each of the administrative districts with each electoral district.  Note that these numbers will have changed somewhat in the areas with the highest population growth.  My purpose in listing these numbers is to note how much weight each town has in a particular election district.  This doesn’t matter much in the most urban areas, but it matters a lot in the more rural areas where voters have a much stronger sense of identity with their township and factions tend to be organized around administrative boundaries.  I have identified hometowns for many candidates, and I plan to add more detail on this variable.

I’ll do analysis some other time.   I’m pooped.

Taipei City Dist #1 Shilin Seats:12
2006 CC Vote share Seats
Total 10
KMT 31.0 3
DPP 32.0 3
NP 7.3 1
PFP 3.0
TSU 10.7 1
IND 15.9 2
town Eligible votes %
Beitou 188850 46.1
Shilin 221000 53.9
total 409850 100.0
name name party Notes
吳碧珠 Wu Bizhu KMT I, speaker
賴素如 Lai Suru KMT I
黃平洋 Huang Pingyang KMT baseball player
陳重文 Chen Chongwen KMT
王育誠 Wang Yucheng PFP Former CC member, lost 2006, media backround
潘懷宗 Pan Huaizong NP I
林世宗 Lin Shizong DPP
何志偉 He Zhiwei DPP Son of LY薛凌
陳碧峰 Chen Bifeng DPP I, OSOCA
莊瑞雄 Zhuang Ruixiong DPP I,  chair DPP Taipei City branch
吳思瑤 Wu Siyao DPP I
陳正德 Chen Zhengde DPP Former CC member, lost 2006
藍世聰 Lan Shicong DPP brother of former LY 藍美津
陳建銘 Chen Jianming TSU I, former legislator
陳政忠 Chen Zhengzhong IND I, former KMT member
林瑞圖 Lin Ruitu IND I, leans blue
汪志冰 Wang Zhibing IND I, lost KMT primary


Taipei City Dist #2 Neihu Seats:9
2006 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 56.4 4
DPP 26.7 2
PFP 10.0 1
TSU 2.3
IND 4.7
town Eligible votes %
Nangang 84797 30.7
Neihu 191165 69.3
total 275962 100.0
name name party Notes
李彦秀 Li Yanxiu KMT I, father is former CC 李金璋
陳義洲 Chen Yizhou KMT I, brother is former CC speaker and LY 陳建治
吳世正 Wu Shizheng KMT I, media background
闕枚莎 Que Meisha KMT I, Nangang Que family, mother is former CC 謝美英
侯衍泰 Hou Yantai KMT
黃珊珊 Huang Shanshan PFP I
李亦杜 Li Yidu NP media background, worked for LY 蔡正元
江志銘 Jiang Zhiming DPP OSOCA
王孝維 Wang Xiaowei DPP I, Hsieh faction
高嘉瑜 Gao Jiayu DPP
李建昌 Li Jianchang DPP I, New Tide
李盈萱 Li Yingxuan GR
劉珮如 Liu Peiru IND
洪連佐 Hong Lianzuo IND
許德興 Xu Dexing IND


Taipei City Dist #3 Songshan Seats: 10
2006 CC Vote share Seats
Total 9
KMT 44.3 5
DPP 33.2 3
NP 8.0 1
PFP 10.1
TSU 2.3
IND 2.1
town Eligible votes %
Songshan 156627 46.6
Xinyi 179173 53.4
total 335800 100.0
name name party Notes
秦慧珠 Qin Huizhu KMT Former LY, former PFP
陳永德 Chen Yongde KMT I
楊實秋 Yang Shiqiu KMT I
王正德 Wang Zhengde KMT I
戴錫欽 Dai Xiqin KMT I, media background
陳孋輝 Chen Lihui KMT I
洪士奇 Hong Shiqi PFP medical doctor
王鴻薇 Wang Hongwei NP I, media background
張茂楠 Zhang Maonan DPP I
洪健益 Hong Jianyi DPP I
許淑華 Xu Shuhua DPP I
許家蓓 Xu Jiabei DPP 曾是立委高志鵬助理, father is former CC 許富男, OSOCA
陳淑華 Chen Shuhua DPP Lost in 2006
潘翰聲 Pan Hansheng GR
唐高炫風 Tang Gao Xuanfeng


Taipei City Dist #4 Datong Seats:8
2006 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 45.1 3
DPP 30.3 3
PFP 5.0
TSU 12.1 1
IND 7.5
town Eligible votes %
Zhongshan 171025 63.5
Datong 98337 36.5
total 269362 100.0
name name party Notes
陳玉梅 Chen Yumei KMT I
王浩 Wang Hao KMT I
葉林傳 Ye Linchuan KMT 圓山里里長
林晉章 Lin Jinzhang KMT I
林國成 Lin Guocheng PFP
簡余宴 Jian Yuyan DPP I, former TSU
李文英 Li Wenying DPP I
王世堅 Wang Shijian DPP Former LY
黃向群 Huang Xiangqun DPP I, son of former LYs 黃天福 and 藍美津
梁文傑 Liang Wenjie DPP New Tide
陳德賢 Chen Dexian TSU 里長
鄭政崇 Zheng Zhengchong IND


Taipei City Dist #5 Wanhua Seats:8
2006 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 33.5 2
DPP 38.4 4
NP 9.6 1
PFP 4.7
TSU 2.2
IND 11.6
town Eligible votes %
Zhongzheng 118156 43.4
Wanhua 154106 56.6
total 272262 100.0
name name party Notes
郭昭巖 Guo Zhaoyan KMT Daughter of CC 李仁人, granddaughter of CC & NA  李黃恆貞
應曉薇 Ying Xiaowei KMT Actress
鍾小平 Zhong Xiaoping KMT Former CC member, former NP
吳志剛 Wu Zhigang KMT I, son of吳伯雄
李振光 Li Zhenguang PFP Retired policeman
侯冠群 Hou Guanqun NP I
劉耀仁 Liu Yaoren DPP I
童仲彥 Tong Zhongyan DPP Media background, OSOCA
周威佑 Zhou Weiyou DPP I
顏聖冠 Yan Shengguan DPP I, daughter of former LY Yan Jinfu
陳嘉銘 Chen Jiaming TSU I, lost DPP primary
鍾君竺 Zhong Junlan IND
王碧華 Wang Bihua IND Lost KMT primary
宋佳倫 Song Jialun GR
陳光 Chen Guang IND


Taipei City Dist #6 Da’an Seats:13
2006 CC Vote share Seats
Total 11
KMT 52.6 6
DPP 25.9 3
NP 7.8 1
PFP 9.2 1
TSU 1.2
IND 3.3
town Eligible votes %
Da’an 239391 55.2
Wenshan 194008 44.8
total 433399 100.0
name name party Notes
林奕華 Lin Yihua KMT I,父親為前教育部常務次長林昭賢
歐陽龍 Ouyang Long KMT I
李新 Li Xin KMT I; former PFP
陳錦祥 Chen Jinxiang KMT I, vice-speaker
李慶元 Li Qingyuan KMT I, former NP
秦儷舫 Qin Lifang KMT I; former NP, PFP
厲耿桂芳 Li Geng Guifang KMT I, military support
王欣儀 Wang Xinyi KMT Former CC, lost 2006
李大華 Li Dahua PFP Media background
陳彥伯 Chen Yanbo NP Media background
周柏雅 Zhou Boya DPP I
徐佳青 Xu Jiaqing DPP I
李慶鋒 Li Qingfeng DPP I
阮昭雄 Ruan Zhaoxiong DPP Hsieh faction
柯景昇 Ke Jingsheng DPP Former CC, OSOCA
周倪安 Zhou Ni’an TSU
翁金飛 Weng Jinfei IND
王蘋 Wang Pin IND
李碧玉 Li Biyu IND
張宏林 Zhang Honglin IND
林慶隆 Lin Qinglong IND Lost KMT primary


Taipei City Dist #7 PA Seats:1
2006 CC Vote share Seats
Total 1
KMT 73.3 1
IND 26.7
name name party Notes
李芳儒 Li Fangru KMT Son of CC李銀來
祿子.高露 Luzi Gaolu IND
萬美芳 Wan Meifang IND
林照玉 Lin Zhaoyu IND


Taipei City Dist #8 MA Seats:1
2006 CC New district
name name party Notes
李傅中武 Li Fu Zhongwu KMT Several family members in entertainment world
高李茂俊 Gao Li Maojun PFP
高正尚 Gao Zhengshang IND
高金建華 Gao Jin Jianhua IND
黃鶴敏 Huang Hemin IND


Xinbei City Dist #1 Danshui Seats:3
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 3
KMT 44.5 1
DPP 20.6 1
IND 34.9 1
town Eligible votes %
Danshui 94143 66.0
Sanzhi 17194 12.0
Shimen 8603 6.0
Bali 22776 16.0
total 142716 100.0
name name party Notes
鄭戴麗香 Zheng Dai Lixiang KMT I, IND in 2005, from Bali
李文德 Li Wende KMT I, from Danshui
呂子昌 Lu Zichang DPP I
蔡錦賢 Cai Jinxian IND Danshui town council speaker
練瑞農 Lian Ruinong IND from Shimen
王鐘銘 Wang Zhongming GR


Xinbei City Dist #2 Xinzhuang Seats:10
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 10
KMT 41.1 4
DPP 19.7 3
TSU 3.1
IND 36.0 3
town Eligible votes %
Xinzhuang 273106 66.0
Wugu 52670 12.7
Taishan 49319 11.9
Linkou 38472 9.3
total 413567 100.0
name name party Notes
黃林玲玲 Huang Lin Lingling KMT I, former Xinzhuang mayor
蔡淑君 Cai Shujun KMT I, from Linkou
江根煌 Jiang Genhuang KMT Xinzhuang town council speaker
陳明義 Chen Mingyi KMT I, from Wugu, media background
吳原豪 Wu Yuanhao KMT Xinzhuang town council vice-speaker
李國書 Li Guoshu KMT I, former Taishan mayor
宋明宗 Song Mingzong KMT Taishan mayor
張晉婷 Zhang Jinting DPP Wugu town council vice-speaker, daughter-in-law of former CA 林義一
何淑峰 He Shufeng DPP I, from Xinzhuang
賴秋媚 Lai Qiumei DPP Taishan town council
陳科名 Chen Keming DPP I, from Xinzhuang
陳文治 Chen Wenzhi DPP I, from Xinzhuang
黃厚經 Huang Houjing TSU Lost KMT primary, Xinzhuang town council
劉新龍 Liu Xinlong IND Lost KMT primary, from Xinzhuang
蔡健棠 Cai Jiantang IND Lost KMT primary, Xinzhuang town council
葉正森 Ye Zhengsen IND I, from Xinzhuang
蔡宗一 Cai Zongyi IND former Linkou mayor, former CA
蘇立傑 Su Lijie IND Linkou town council
王月櫻 Wang Yueying IND Xinzhuang town council
許主 Xu Zhu? IND
蔡昌碩 Cai Changshuo IND Xinzhuang town council


Xinbei City Dist #3 Sanchong Seats:10
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 10
KMT 37.2 5
DPP 21.0 2
PFP 4.4
TSU 5.1 1
IND 32.4 2
town Eligible votes %
Sanchong 285436 69.1
Luzhou 127781 30.9
total 413217 100.0
name name party Notes
胡淑蓉 Hu Shurong KMT I, from Sanchong
陳幸進 Chen Xingjin KMT I, CA speaker, from Sanchong
鄭世維 Zheng Shiwei KMT I, from Luzhou
黃桂蘭 Huang Guilan KMT I, from Luzhou
蔡明堂 Cai Mingtang KMT I, from Sanchong
李余典 Li Yudian DPP former CA, lost twice for Sanchong mayor
李倩萍 Li Qianping DPP I
李坤城 Li Kuncheng DPP Hsieh faction
陳啟能 Chen Qi’neng DPP I, 2005 won as TSU, from Sanchong, OSOCA
邱婷蔚 Qiu Tingwei DPP
鄭金隆 Zheng Jinlong DPP I; 2005 won as IND; lost primary but still nominated
顏仁宣 Yan Renxuan TSU 2005 lost as IND, Sanchong town council
張家偉 Zhang Jiawei IND former Sanchong town council speaker
林秋貴 Lin Qiugui IND Sanchong town council speaker, lost DPP primary
何仰山 He Yangshan IND former CA, Lost in 2005
李世東 Li Shidong IND Lost in 2005, Sanchong town council, lost DPP primary
黃秀玉 Huang Xiuyu IND Luzhou town council, lost DPP primary
林金層 Lin Jinceng IND leans green
蘇卿彥 Su Qingyan IND
李翁月娥 Li Weng Yue’e IND Luzhou mayor, leans blue
陳忠 Chen Zhong IND


Xinbei City Dist #4 Banqiao Seats:9
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 9
KMT 30.9 4
DPP 22.8 2
NP 2.1
PFP 4.8
TSU 7.3 1
IND 32.1 2
town Eligible votes %
Banqiao 400801 100.0
total 400801 100.0
name name party Notes
周勝考 Zhou Shengkao KMT I
張宏銘 Zhang Hongming KMT Lost in 2005 as IND, town council vice-speaker
曾煥嘉 Zeng Huanjia KMT Town council speaker, Son of CA曾文振 (IND)
林國春 Lin Guochun KMT I, 2005 won as IND
劉美芳 Liu Meifang KMT Daughter of former PA speaker and LY 劉炳偉
吳金宗 Wu Jinzong PFP Son of LY吳清池
王淑慧 Wang Shuhui DPP former LY, OSOCA
張宏陸 Zhang Honglu DPP Su faction, 過去在行政院、民政局長和板橋市代理市長
林水山 Lin Shuishan DPP Lost in 2005, town council
黃俊哲 Huang Junzhe DPP I
李婉鈺 Li Wanyu DPP Town council
蕭貫譽 Xiao Guanyu TSU I
廖裕德 Liao Yude IND Former CC member, lost 2005
王月明 Wang Yueming IND I, lost DPP primary
王淑惠 Wang Shuhui IND I, 2005 won as KMT
汪成華 Wang Chenghua IND Newspaper columnist
王景源 Wang Jingyuan IND I, 2005 won as KMT
趙燕昭 Zhao Yanzhao IND Lost KMT primary, military system


Xinbei City Dist #5 Zhonghe Seats:7
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 41.2 3
DPP 20.5 2
NP 6.8
PFP 14.9 1
IND 16.6 1
town Eligible votes %
Zhonghe 312885 100.0
total 312885 100.0
name name party Notes
簡文劉 Jian Wenliu KMT I
邱烽堯 Qiu Fengyao KMT Son of mayor Qiu Chuiyi
許進勝 Xu Jinsheng KMT 2005 lost mayor race, town council
金瑞龍 Jin Ruilong KMT town council
陳錦錠 Chen Jinding KMT I, wife of LY Zhang Qingzhong
李肇南 Li Zhaonan PFP I
戴德成 Dai Decheng NP town council
林秀惠 Lin Xiuhui DPP I, OSOCA
張瑞山 Zhang Ruishan DPP I
江永昌 Jiang Yongchang IND I, cousin of former LY Zhao Yongqing, leans Green
呂萬煜 Lu Wanyu IND town council
游輝廷 You Huiting IND I, lost KMT primary
楊宗翰 Yang Zonghan IND Lost KMT primary, town council


Xinbei City Dist #6 Yonghe Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 4
KMT 51.0 2
DPP 28.0 1
PFP 14.7 1
IND 6.3
town Eligible votes %
Yonghe 176542 100.0
total 176542 100.0
name name party Notes
陳鴻源 Chen Hongyuan KMT I, vice-speaker, father was NA陳明雄
金介壽 Jin Jieshou KMT I, won in 2005 as PFP, former NP
連斐璠 Lian Feifan KMT I
黃錫麟 Huang Xilin PFP Town council
廖筱清 Liao Xiaoqing DPP I, media background
許昭興 Xu Zhaoxing DPP Town council, OSOCA
洪一平 Hong Yiping IND mayor, leans Blue
李素楨 Li Suzhen IND


Xinbei City Dist #7 Tucheng Seats:9
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 9
KMT 33.4 3
DPP 29.1 3
PFP 5.7 1
TSU 5.8 1
IND 25.9 1
town Eligible votes %
Tucheng 164942 41.9
Shulin 110009 28.0
Yingge 58315 14.8
Sanxia 60135 15.3
total 393401 100.0
name name party Notes
洪佳君 Hong Jiajun KMT I, from Shulin, husband is LY 黃志雄, father is 里長
黃永昌 Huang Yongchang KMT I, from Tucheng
蔡黃龍 Cai Huanglong KMT I, won in 2005 as PFP, from Tucheng
何玉枝 He Yuzhi KMT former Shulin mayor
王明麗 Wang Mingli KMT former CA, from Sanxia
王金芬 Wang Jinfen KMT Tucheng town council
薛永華 Xue Yonghua PFP
吳琪銘 Wu Qiming DPP I, won in 2005 as TSU, from Tucheng, OSOCA
陳世榮 Chen Shirong DPP Shulin mayor, former CA
林銘仁 Lin Mingren DPP I, from Tucheng
歐金獅 Ou Jinshi DPP I, from Yingge
彭成龍 Peng Chenglong DPP Lost in 2005, Tucheng town council
高敏慧 Gao Minhui DPP I, from Shulin
陳白霞 Chen Baixia TSU 2005 lost as IND, from Sanxia
吳麗香 Wu Lixiang IND Lost KMT primary
陳誠鈞 Chen Chengjun IND
江定謙 Jiang Dinglian IND
廖進入 Liao Jinru IND
蘇有仁 Su Youren IND Yingge mayor, won as KMT (2001), IND (2005)
陳文錄 Chen Wenlu IND I, from Yingge


Xinbei City Dist #8 Xindian Seats:5
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 5
KMT 36.9 1
DPP 15.8 1
NP 5.2
PFP 29.3 2
IND 12.8 1
town Eligible votes %
Xindian 218350 88.0
Shenkeng 15829 6.4
Shiding 6078 2.5
Pinglin 5500 2.2
Wulai 2237 0.9
total 247994 100.0
name name party Notes
曾正和 Zeng Zhenghe KMT I, former Xindian mayor
劉哲彰 Liu Zhezhang KMT Son of LY劉盛良
許正鴻 Xu Zhenghong KMT Son of former CA speaker許再恩
陳儀君 Chen Yijun KMT Xidian town council
鄒元中 Zou Yuanzhong PFP Xidian town council
蔡明璋 Cai Mingzhang NP
陳永福 Chen Yongfu DPP I, former TSU legislator, 2005 won as IND
李新芳 Li Xinfang DPP I
金中玉 Jin Zhongyu IND I, 2005 won as PFP, not allowed to run in KMT primary because of 排黑條款
高世輝 Gao Shihui IND Lost KMT primary, Xidian town council
王至芬 Wang Zhifen IND Lost KMT primary, Xidian town council


Xinbei City Dist #9 Ruifang Seats:1
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 1
IND 100.0 1
town Eligible votes %
Ruifang 33354 57.0
Pingxi 5358 9.2
Shuangxi 8521 14.6
Gongliao 11283 19.3
total 58516 100.0
name name party Notes
顏世雄 Yan Shixiong DPP former Ruifang mayor, former CA (father was ?)
廖秀雄 Liao Xiuxiong IND I, former Ruifang mayor
趙國棟 Zhao Guodong IND former Gongliao mayor
石翊靖 Shi Yujing IND


Xinbei City Dist #10 Xizhi Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 4
KMT 49.5 3
DPP 15.2 1
PFP 6.3
IND 28.9
town Eligible votes %
Xizhi 130734 80.8
Jinshan 16183 10.0
Wanli 14960 9.2
total 161877 100.0
name name party Notes
黃建清 Huang Jianqing KMT Xizhi mayor
唐有吉 Tang Youji KMT I, from Wanli (also gets Jinshan votes)
白珮茹 Bai Peiru KMT I, from Xizhi
廖正良 Liao Zhengliang KMT I, from Xizhi
周雅玲 Zhou Yaling DPP I, (sister of former LY Zhou Yashu?), OSOCA
沈發惠 Shen Fahui DPP Former LY, former CA
廖學廣 Liao Xueguang IND Former legislator, former Xizhi mayor
許春財 Xu Chuncai IND Jinshan mayor, former CA


Xinbei City Dist #11 PA Seats:2
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 2
KMT 41.2 1
DPP 20.4
IND 38.4 1
name name party Notes
忠仁。達祿斯 Zhongren Dalusi KMT I (ran in 2005 as 林忠仁)
陳家梅 Chen Jiamei KMT
張天明 Zhang Tianming PFP Lost in 2005 as IND
夷將.拔路兒 Yijiang Balu’er DPP Former Aboriginal Affairs Council Chair
田春枝 Tian Chunzhi IND Lost in 2005 as DPP
宋進財 Song Jincai IND I, won in 2005 as KMT
黃來富 Huang Laifu IND
黃宸鈺 Huang Zhenyu IND
楊春妹 Yang Chunmei IND
拔耐.茹妮老王 Ba’nai Ru’nilaowang IND


Xinbei City Dist #12 MA Seats:1
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 1
KMT 42.4 1
DPP 27.0
IND 30.6
name name party Notes
王建章 Wang Jianzhang KMT I
陳勝榮 Chen Shengrong IND
張金榮 Zhang Jinrong IND


Taichung City Dist #1 Dajia Seats:3
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 5
KMT 35.6 3
DPP 16.7
IND 47.7 2
town Eligible votes %
Dajia 55743 59.2
Waipu 22858 24.3
Da’an 15490 16.5
total 94091 100.0
name name party Notes
林素真 Lin Suzhen KMT I, from Da’an
李鴻榮 Li Hongrong KMT I, red faction
姚應龍 Yao Yinglong KMT I, 2005 won as IND, former Waipu mayor
吳敏濟 Wu Minji DPP
易錦隆 Yi Jinlong IND Lost DPP primary; 2005 lost as DPP, Dajia town council
陳源智 Chen Yuanzhi IND Dajia town council
王世清 Wang Shiqing IND Retired police officer, supported by LY顏清標 (how ironic)
顏榮燦 Yan Rongcan IND I
紀昭印 Ji Zhaoyin IND Former CA, 2005 did not run
楊永昌 Yang Yongchang IND I, Lost KMT primary, red faction, brother in law of LY劉銓忠


Taichung City Dist #2 Qingshui Seats:5
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 46.0 3
DPP 12.1
TSU 5.7
IND 36.2 4
town Eligible votes %
Qingshui 61817 40.6
Shalu 53446 35.1
Wuqi 37127 24.4
total 152390 100.0
name name party Notes
楊秋雲 Yang Qiuyun KMT I, has military support, from Qingshui
蘇麗華 Su Lihua KMT Former CA, current Shalu mayor
王立任 Wang Liren DPP
楊典忠 Yang Dianzhong DPP
趙朝琴 Zhao Chaoqin IND I, black faction, fishers ass., from Qingshui
張清堂 Zhang Qingtang IND I, CA speaker, 2005 won as KMT, has court case so ineligible for KMT nomination, from Qingshui
陳詩哲 Chen Shizhe IND I, red faction, from Shalu
陳年添 Chen Niantian IND I, former middle school principal, votes spread out
尤璧鈴 You Biling IND I, Lost KMT primary, red faction, former Wuqi mayor
周賜福 Zhou Sifu IND 2005 Lost as KMT, Shalu town council


Taichung City Dist #3 Dadu Seats:5
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 54.2 5
DPP 15.8 1
IND 29.9 1
town Eligible votes %
Wuri 47004 34.8
Dadu 39356 29.1
Longjing 48869 36.1
total 135229 100.0
name name party Notes
林汝洲 Lin Ruzhou KMT Dadu mayor, black faction, former CA
林士昌 Lin Shichang KMT I, vice-speaker, black faction, from Longjing
吳瓊華 Wu Qionghua KMT I, red faction, from Wuri
陳世凱 Chen Shikai DPP not local
劉淑蘭 Liu Shulan DPP I, husband is Longjing mayor 林裕議, OSOCA
謝蒼海 Xie Canghai IND Lost KMT primary, 2005 lost as KMT, former Wuri mayor, former CA
林增貴 Lin Zenggui IND Longjing town council vice-speaker, allied with LY 顏清標
黃錫嘉 Huang Xijia IND I, from Longjing
張正興 Zhang Zhengxing IND I, 2005 won as KMT, from Wuri
楊忠諺 Yang Zhongyan IND I, Lost KMT primary, from Dadu, mother is former CA 藍綉鳳
何端格 He Duange IND I, Lost KMT primary, from Longjing


Taichung City Dist #4 Fengyuan Seats:5
2005 CC Vote share Seats
KMT 41.3
DPP 21.0
PFP 7.2
TSU 9.4
IND 21.2
town Eligible votes %
Fengyuan 116124 74.6
Houli 39543 25.4
total 155667 100.0
name name party Notes
陳本添 Chen Bentian KMT I, allied with LY徐中雄, from Houli
車淑娟 Che Shujuan KMT I, from Fengyuan
張溢城 Zhang Yicheng KMT I, former Fengyuan mayor
王朝坤 Wang Chaokun KMT Houli town council speaker
吳富亭 Wu Futing DPP I, from Fengyuan
翁美春 Weng Meichun DPP I, from Fengyuan
謝志忠 Xie Zhizhong DPP I, from Fengyuan
高基讚 Gao Jizan TSU I, from Houli
陳清龍 Chen Qinglong IND I, Lost KMT primary, 2005 won as PFP, from Fengyuan
尤介成 You Jiecheng IND 2005 lost as IND, Fengyuan town council


Taichung City Dist #5 Tanzi Seats:6
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 9
KMT 51.4 5
DPP 29.5 3
PFP 4.1
TSU 2.4
IND 12.6 1
town Eligible votes %
Shengang 45512 26.9
Tanzi 66398 39.2
Daya 57585 34.0
total 169495 100.0
name name party Notes
王加佳 Wang Jiajia KMT I, from Daya
羅永珍 Luo Yongzhen KMT Shengang mayor (by-election), 2005 won CA
吳顯森 Wu Xiansen KMT Daya mayor
賴朝國 Lai Chaoguo KMT I, from Tanzi
林竹旺 Lin Zhuwang DPP I, from Tanzi
許水彬 Xu Shuibin DPP I, from Daya
廖述鎮 Liao Shuzhen DPP I, from Daya
王永通 Wang Yongtong IND I, Lost KMT primary, from Shengang
何秀香 He Xiuxiang IND Lost KMT primary, Daya town council
張立傑 Zhang Lijie IND I, Lost KMT primary, 2005 won as IND, from Shengang
蕭隆澤 Xiao Longze IND former Tanzi mayor (2005: didn’t run for re-election)


Taichung City Dist #6 Xitun Seats:5
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 8
KMT 56.2 4
DPP 27.4 3
PFP 7.0 1
TSU 5.3
IND 4.1
town Eligible votes %
Xitun 131243 100.0
total 131243 100.0
name name party Notes
黃馨慧 Huang Xinhui KMT I
楊正中 Yang Zhengzhong KMT I, military support
廖乃倫 Zhang Liao Nailun KMT I, father is former CC speaker 張廖貴專
陳淑華 Chen Shuhua DPP I
張廖萬堅 Zhang Liao Wanjian DPP I
留峰甫 Liu Fengfu IND Lost KMT primary
吳春夏 Wu Chunxia IND I, Lost KMT primary, 2005 won as PFP
陳富德 Chen Fude IND Lost KMT primary, 2005 lost as KMT


Taichung City Dist #7 Nantun Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 6
KMT 54.2 4
DPP 15.8 1
TSU 9.5
IND 20.5 1
town Eligible votes %
Nantun 93697 100.0
total 93697 100.0
name name party Notes
朱暖英 Zhu Nuanying KMT husband is former CC 王秋冬 who resigned seat for post in city govt
劉士州 Liu Shizhou KMT I, 2005 won as IND
丁振嘉 Ding Zhenjia KMT I
張耀中 Zhang Yaozhong DPP I
何文海 He Wenhai DPP 2005 lost as IND, OSOCA
陳三井 Chen Sanjing IND I, Lost KMT primary
黃淑芬 Huang Shufen IND I, Lost KMT primary
張博威 Zhang Bowei IND 2005 lost as IND


Taichung City Dist #8 Beitun Seats:6
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 10
KMT 58.4 6
DPP 25.5 3
NP 3.2
PFP 6.0 1
TSU 3.2
IND 3.7
town Eligible votes %
Beitun 163756 100.0
total 163756 100.0
name name party Notes
沈佑蓮 Shen Youlian KMT I, 2005 won as PFP
陳成添 Chen Chentian KMT I
吳敏 Wu Min KMT actor
賴順仁 Lai Shunren KMT I
曾朝榮 Zeng Chaorong DPP I
王岳彬 Wang Yuebin DPP I
蔡雅玲 Cai Yaling DPP I
林永能 Lin Yongneng IND I, Lost KMT primary
洪樹和 Hong Shuhe IND
魏雲菱 Wei Yunling IND
謝黎芳 Xie Lifang IND Lost KMT primary, 2005 lost as KMT, granddaughter of former CC陳武雄
黃代珩 Huang Daixing IND worked for former LY 洪昭男


Taichung City Dist #9 North Seats:3
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 54.7 3
DPP 26.8 3
PFP 5.6
TSU 9.5 1
IND 3.4
town Eligible votes %
North 107897 100.0
total 107897 100.0
name name party Notes
陳天汶 Chen Tianwen KMT I, vice-speaker
陳有江 Chen Youjiang KMT I
范淞育 Fan Songyu DPP I
賴佳微 Lai Jiawei DPP I
劉國隆 Liu Guolong TSU I
顏志修 Yan Zhixiu IND I, Lost KMT primary


Taichung City Dist #10 CW Seats:3
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 6
KMT 43.3 2
DPP 35.7 3
PFP 2.5
TSU 7.1
IND 11.5 1
town Eligible votes %
Central 16013 16.2
West 82916 83.8
total 98929 100.0
name name party Notes
張宏年 Zhang Hongnian KMT I
洪嘉鴻 Hong Jiahong KMT I
黃國書 Huang Guoshu DPP I
江正吉 Jiang Zhengji DPP Former KMT and IND CC member; lost 2001 as IND, 2005 as TSU, OSOCA
蔡和興 Cai Hexing IND
熊英芝 Xiong Yingzhi IND
王允伶 Wang Yunling IND Mother is former CC莊乃慧 (KMT)
賀姿華 He Zihua IND 2005 lost as IND


Taichung City Dist #11 SE Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 8
KMT 47.5 4
DPP 36.2 4
PFP 4.1
IND 12.2
town Eligible votes %
East 53953 41.3
South 76605 58.7
total 130558 100.0
name name party Notes
賴頤年 Lai Yinian KMT I
李中 Li Zhong KMT I
林珮涵 Lin Peihan KMT I
何敏誠 He Mincheng DPP I
鄭功進 Zheng Gongjin DPP I
邱素貞 Qiu Suzhen DPP I, OSOCA
廖興生 Liao Xingsheng IND 2005 lost as IND
顏妏真 Yan Wenzhen IND daughter of CC 顏英男
林家揚 Lin Jiayang IND


Taichung City Dist #12 Taiping Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 6
KMT 47.9 3
DPP 26.9 2
PFP 5.0
TSU 2.6
IND 17.7 1
town Eligible votes %
Taiping 119812 100.0
total 119812 100.0
name name party Notes
李麗華 Li Lihua KMT I
詹敏豐 Zhan Minfeng KMT I
賴瑞珠 Lai Ruizhu KMT I
何明杰 He Mingjie DPP I
黃秀珠 Huang Xiuzhu DPP I
賴義鍠 Lai Yihuang IND I
江連福 Jiang Lianfu IND Former KMT LY, stripped of seat in 2009


Taichung City Dist #13 Dali Seats:6
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 9
KMT 39.4 5
DPP 23.7 2
PFP 6.4 1
TSU 2.4
IND 28.0 1
town Eligible votes %
Dali 129056 73.1
Wufeng 47408 26.9
total 176464 100.0
name name party Notes
林碧秀 Lin Bixiu KMT I, from Dali
蔡黃金雀 Cai Huang Jinque KMT I, from Dali
戴萬福 Dai Wanfu KMT I, from Dali
蘇柏興 Su Boxing KMT Dali town council vice-speaker
段緯宇 Duan Weiyu PFP I, no base
何欣純 He Xinchun DPP I, no base
劉錦和 Liu Jinhe DPP Former CA member, 2005 ran for Dali mayor, OSOCA
李天生 Li Tiansheng DPP I, no base
劉東圓 Liu Dongyuan IND
鄭照新 Zheng Zhaoxin IND Allied with former PFP LY 馮定國
許榮良 Xu Rongliang IND Town council, leans green
張滄沂 Zhang Cangyi IND I, from Dali
林育潤 Lin Yurun IND Son of CA陳玉雪, who lost KMT primary, from Dali
鄭伯其 Zheng Boqi IND Town council
江勝雄 Jiang Shengxiong IND I, 2005 won as KMT, from Wufeng
林仲毅 Lin Zhongyi IND Dali mayor, involved in江連福 scandal


Taichung City Dist #14 Dongshi Seats:2
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 4
KMT 55.1 2
DPP 17.6 1
PFP 14.0
IND 13.3 1
town Eligible votes %
Dongshi 41632 52.6
Xinshe 19711 24.9
Shigang 11873 15.0
Heping 5919 7.5
total 79135 100.0
name name party Notes
蘇慶雲 Su Qingyun KMT I
陳萬通 Chen Wantong KMT I
蔡成圭 Cai Chengui DPP I
林明鍾 Lin Mingzhong IND Lost in 2005 as PFP, 里長
詹益乾 Zhan Yiqian IND Xinshe town council
李月梅 Li Yuemei IND Former CA member, lost in 2005 as KMT


Taichung City Dist #15 PA Seats:1
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 2
KMT 40.7 1
PFP 54.2 1
IND 5.2
name name party Notes
洪金福 Hong Jinfu KMT I, 2005 won as PFP
溫建華 Wen Jianhua KMT
黃仁 Huang Ren KMT


Taichung City Dist #16 MA Seats:1
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 1
IND 100.0 1
name name party Notes
江世大 Jiang Shitang KMT
林建堂 Lin Jiantang KMT I, 2005 won as IND
林榮進 Lin Rongjin KMT


Tainan City Dist #1 Baihe Seats:2
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 4
KMT 60.9 3
DPP 39.1 1
town Eligible votes %
Baihe 26115 39.1
Houbi 21531 32.2
Dongshan 19201 28.7
total 66847 100.0
name name party Notes
張世賢 Zhang Shixian KMT I, from Baihe
黃月娟 Huang Yuejuan KMT I, from Houbi
賴美惠 Lai Meihui DPP I, from Houbi
尤連發 You Lianfa IND Dongshan mayor


Tainan City Dist #2 Xinying Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 6
KMT 39.1 3
DPP 22.1
IND 38.8 3
town Eligible votes %
Xinying 57318 58.8
Yanshui 21863 22.4
Liuying 18263 18.7
total 97444 100.0
name name party Notes
蔡育輝 Cai Yuhui KMT I, from Xinying
黃金鏞 Huang Jinyong KMT I, former Xinying mayor
劉桂妙 Liu Guimiao KMT I, from Liuying
李退之 Li Tuizhi DPP 2005: lost Xinying mayor
賴惠員 Lai Huiyuan DPP OSOCA
陳進雄 Chen Jinxiong IND I, from Liuying
顏炎釧 Yan Yanchuan IND I, cousin 顏進仕 is Yanshui mayor
趙昆原 Zhao Kunyuan IND I, from Xinying


Tainan City Dist #3 Xuejia Seats:2
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 3
KMT 23.8 1
DPP 12.4
IND 63.8 2
town Eligible votes %
Xuejia 22349 43.9
Jiangjun 18292 35.9
Beimen 10322 20.3
total 50963 100.0
name name party Notes
陳宗興 Chen Zongxing KMT I, CA vice-speaker, from Jiangjun
侯澄財 Hou Chengcai DPP I, 2005 won as IND, from Beimen
謝財旺 Xie Caiwang IND Xuejia mayor


Tainan City Dist #4 Madou Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 5
KMT 27.4 1
DPP 30.2 2
IND 42.3 2
town Eligible votes %
Madou 35535 38.3
Xiaying 21067 22.7
Liujia 18412 19.8
Guantian 17858 19.2
total 92872 100.0
name name party Notes
尤榮智 You Rongzhi KMT I, former Liujia mayor
謝總茹 Xie Zongru KMT wife of former CA 姜金堂, from Xiaying
陳文賢 Chen Wenxian DPP I, from Xiaying
楊麗玉 Yang Liyu DPP I, from Madou, close to 賴清德
吳通龍 Wu Tonglong IND I, 2005 lost as IND but got a seat stripped seat from someone else, leans green, from Liujia
郭秀珠 Guo Xiuzhu IND I, formerly CA vice-speaker, husband is Madou mayor 陳彰茂, OSOCA
蔡和靖 Cai Hejing IND former Madou town council, close to 許添財 and A-bian
何培齊 He Peiqi IND from Liujia, professor 文化大學史學系兼任助理教授


Tainan City Dist #5 Jiali Seats:3
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 5
KMT 29.9 2
DPP 49.3 2
IND 20.9 1
town Eligible votes %
Jiali 44204 53.0
Xigang 19377 23.2
Qigu 19897 23.8
total 83478 100.0
name name party Notes
余榮和 Yu Ronghe KMT I, from Jiali
方一峰 Fang Yifeng KMT 2005 won as IND but seat stripped, father is former CA 方隆盛, from Xigang
蔡蘇秋金 Cai Su Qiujin DPP I, 2005 lost as DPP but got Fang’s seat, from Xigang, 七股人,嫁到西港
陳朝來 Chen Chaolai DPP I, from Qigu, OSOCA
蔡秋蘭 Cai Qiulan DPP I, husband 丁連宏 is former Xigang town council speaker


Tainan City Dist #6 Shanhua Seats:2
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 3
KMT 20.2
DPP 31.2 1
IND 48.5 2
town Eligible votes %
Shanhua 31573 58.6
Anding 22335 41.4
total 53908 100.0
name name party Notes
李文俊 Li Wenjun KMT Lost KMT primary, but nominated anyway, Shanhua mayor
樑順發 Liang Shunfa DPP I, from Anding
林丁燦 Lin Dingcan IND I, from Shanhua

Note: 胡瑞男 won sole KMT nomination but did not register


Tainan City Dist #7 Xinhua Seats:2
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 3
KMT 26.8 1
DPP 19.4
IND 53.8 2
town Eligible votes %
Da’nei 9451 19.1
Xinhua 33697 68.1
Shanshang 6359 12.8
total 49507 100.0
name name party Notes
吳德強 Wu Deqiang KMT Xinhua town council speaker
林志聰 Lin Zhicong DPP from Xinhua, OSOCA
林全忠 Lin Quanzhong IND I, from Xinhua
楊登山 Yang Dengshan IND I, from Danei


Tainan City Dist #8 Yujing Seats:1
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 2
KMT 38.3 1
DPP 30.4
IND 31.3 1
town Eligible votes %
Yujing 12648 37.5
Nanxi 8941 26.5
Nanhua 7288 21.6
Zuozhen 4861 14.4
total 33738 100.0
name name party Notes
江仲祥 Jiang Zhongxiang KMT I, from Yujing
王俊潭 Wang Juntan DPP Former CA member, 2005 lost as DPP, spread out, OSOCA
葉枝成 Ye Zhicheng IND Yujing mayor, Lost KMT primary


Tainan City Dist #9 Yongkang Seats:7
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 11
KMT 34.1 5
DPP 19.7 2
PFP 2.5
TSU 2.2
IND 41.5 4
town Eligible votes %
Yongkang 148059 85.3
Xinshi 25426 14.7
total 173485 100.0
name name party Notes
李坤煌 Li Kunhuang KMT Yongkang mayor
林燕祝 Lin Yanzhu KMT worked for LY 李全教
康進水 Kang Jinshui KMT I, from Yongkang
王敏星 Wang Minxing KMT I, from Yongkang
郭瑞南 Guo Ruinan KMT I, from Yongkang
林宜瑾 Lin Yijin DPP I
陳秋萍 Chen Qiuping DPP
郭國文 Guo Guowen DPP 台南縣政府行政處長、也曾任民進黨台南縣黨部主委
林阳乙 Lin Yangyi IND Yongkang town council, son of (CA?) 林進旺
周獻珍 Zhou Xianzhen IND Lost KMT primary
楊明達 Yang Mingda IND Former CA member, 2005 lost as IND
邱奕龍 Qiu Yilong IND
林慶鎮 Ling Qingzhen IND I, former Xinshi mayor
施重男 Shi Chongnan IND OSOCA
楊中成 Yang Zhongcheng IND I, from Yongkang
李崇智 Li Chongzhi IND I, Lost KMT primary
蔡百祿 Cai Bailu IND I, from Yongkang


Tainan City Dist #10 Annan Seats:5
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 9
KMT 16.9 2
DPP 43.2 4
IND 39.9 3
town Eligible votes %
Annan 122411 100.0
total 122411 100.0
name name party Notes
黃麗招 Huang Lizhao KMT I
陳進義 Chen Jinyi KMT Former CC member, 2005 lost as IND
郭信良 Guo Xinliang DPP I, vice-speaker
王錦德 Wang Jinde DPP close to 賴清德
郭清華 Guo Qinghua DPP I, 2005 won as IND
涂韶芳 Tu Shaofang DPP I
李長吉 Li Changji IND I
林炳利 Lin Bingli IND I
李中岺 Li Zhongling IND Lost KMT primary, father is CC 李慶信
唐瑞明 Tang Ruiming IND daughter is CC 唐儀靜 (DPP), sister is former LY 唐碧娥
黃永田 Huang Yongtian IND Lost DPP primary, OSOCA


Tainan City Dist #11 North Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 43.7 3
DPP 36.9 2
PFP 6.3 1
IND 13.1 1
town Eligible votes %
North 95499 100.0
total 95499 100.0
name name party Notes
許至椿 Xu Zhichun KMT I
謝龍介 Xie Longjie KMT I
翁若珊 Weng Ruoshan KMT daughter of CC 翁榮一
李錦泉 Li Jinquan PFP I, lost KMT primary, 2005 won as PFP
陳怡珍 Chen Yizhen DPP sister of LY 陳亭妃
唐碧娥 Tang Bi’e DPP Former LY,OSOCA, brother 唐瑞明 running in D10
李宗富 Li Zongfu IND Former CC, 2005 lost as IND
黃郁文 Huang Yuwen IND I, CC speaker
吳杰 Wu Jie IND Lost DPP primary
黃建欣 Huang Jianxin IND


Tainan City Dist #12 CW Seats:2
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 5
KMT 36.7 2
DPP 41.7 2
TSU 9.2
IND 12.4 1
town Eligible votes %
Central-West 63854 100.0
total 63854 100.0
name name party Notes
邱莉莉 Qiu Lili DPP I, OSOCA
陳昌輝 Chen Changhui TSU 2006 lost as TSU
洪玉鳳 Hong Yufeng IND I, 2005 won as KMT
姜滄源 Jiang Cangyuan IND I, 2005 won as KMT

note: KMT only wanted to nominate one person.  Rather than contest a primary, Hong and Jiang agreed to both run as independents.


Tainan City Dist #13 Anping Seats:2
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 3
KMT 41.9 2
DPP 32.5 1
IND 25.6
town Eligible votes %
Anping 39618 100.0
total 39618 100.0
name name party Notes
馬崇喜 Ma Chongxi KMT I
盧崑福 Lu Kunfu KMT I
李文正 Li Wenzheng DPP I, OSOCA
翁朝正 Weng Chaozheng DPP Former CC, 2005 lost as IND


Tainan City Dist #14 East Seats:6
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 10
KMT 31.0 4
DPP 32.2 3
PFP 6.8 1
IND 30.0 2
town Eligible votes %
East 136270 100.0
total 136270 100.0
name name party Notes
曾培雅 Zeng Peiya KMT I, sister of CC 曾順良
陳文科 Chen Wenke KMT I, brother and sister are both 里長
王家貞 Wang Jiazhen KMT I, 2005 won as PFP, daughter-in-law 朱戎梅 is also running
許木樹 Xu Mushu KMT I, 2005 won as IND
陳正育 Chen Zhengyu NP 2006 lost as IND
王定宇 Wang Dingyu DPP I, OSOCA
蔡旺詮 Cai Wangquan DPP I
陸美祈 Lu Meiqi DPP protege of CC 蕭博仁, close to 賴清德
陳金鐘 Chen Jinzhong IND
李奎典 Li Guidian IND
吳政樺 Wu Zhenghua IND leans green
朱戎梅 Zhu Rongmei IND 2005 lost as KMT, father-in-law is CC 王家貞
楊景斌 Yang Jingbin IND former CC, father is former CC 楊信雄 who lost in 2005 as IND
黃文隆 Huang Wenlong IND 2005: turkey
楊海鷺 Yang Hailu IND
曾順良 Zeng Shunliang IND I, former CC vice-speaker, brother of CC 曾培雅
李建平 Li Jianping IND I, lost KMT primary, military support


Tainan City Dist #15 South Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 30.1 2
DPP 27.9 2
PFP 10.5 1
IND 31.4 2
town Eligible votes %
South 99002 100.0
total 99002 100.0
name name party Notes
蔡淑惠 Cai Shuhui KMT I
林美燕 Lin Meiyan KMT I, 2005 won as PFP
莊玉珠 Zhuang Yuzhu DPP I
陳進益 Chen Jinyi DPP I, DPP city party branch chair
周明德 Zhou Mingde IND I
葉俊良 Ye Junliang IND I
杜媽政 Du Mazheng IND Lost DPP primary, 2005 lost as DPP
郭和元 Guo Heyuan IND I, lost KMT primary


Tainan City Dist #16 Rende Seats:5
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 8
KMT 25.4 2
DPP 24.7 2
IND 49.9 4
town Eligible votes %
Rende 51978 39.6
Guiren 46940 35.7
Guanmiao 28738 21.9
Longqi 3733 2.8
total 131389 100.0
name name party Notes
黃明進 Huang Mingjin KMT I, from Guiren
王雅雲 Wang Yayun DPP I, Guanmiao/Longqi, OSOCA
陳文清 Chen Wenqing DPP
劉正昌 Liu Zhengchang DPP I, from Rende
吳健保 Wu Jianbao IND I, speaker, 2005 won as KMT, from Rende
洪德昆 Hong Dekun IND I, from Rende
張伯祿 Zhang Bolu IND I, from Guanmiao
陳特清 Cheng Teqing IND
杜素吟 Du Sunian IND I, from Rende
李來基 Li Laiji IND


Tainan City Dist #17 PA Seats:1
2005 CC New district
name name party Notes
簡德輝 Jian Dehui KMT
洪木生 Hong Musheng KMT
蔡玉枝 Cai Yuzhi KMT
李美素 Li Meisu DPP
李昌國 Li Changguo TSU
陳郁珺 Chen Yujun IND
曾錦海 Zeng Jinhai IND


Tainan City Dist #18 MA Seats:1
2005 CC New district
name name Party Notes
李志宏 Li Zhihong KMT
許玉美 Xu Yumei KMT
顏明仁 Yan Mingren DPP
孫曉萍 Sun Xiaoping IND
曾秀娟 Zeng Xiujuan IND


Kaohsiung City Dist #1 Meinong Seats:3
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 6
KMT 38.2 2
DPP 42.6 3
IND 19.2 1
town Eligible votes %
Qishan 32248 29.3
Meinong 34876 31.7
Liugui 12270 11.2
Jiaxian 6775 6.2
Shanlin 9581 8.7
Neimen 13307 12.1
Maolin 100 0.1
Taoyuan 399 0.4
Namaxia 396 0.4
total 109952 100.0
name name party Notes
李鴻鈞 Li Hongjun KMT I, Meinong
林義迪 Lin Yidi KMT Qishan mayor
林富寶 Lin Fubao DPP I, Yu faction, Qishan
蕭育穎 Xiao Yuying DPP I, Qishan
朱信強 Zhu Xinqiang IND Farmers association, leans green
鍾盛有 Zhong Shengyou IND I, lost DPP primary, from Shanlin, OSOCA
林洪愛玉 Lin Hong Aiyu IND I, lost KMT primary, Qishan/Jiaxian/Neimen


Kaohsiung City Dist #2 Luzhu Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 6
KMT 53.2 4
DPP 37.8 2
IND 9.0
town Eligible votes %
Tianliao 7497 6.4
Alian 22462 19.3
Luzhu 39885 34.3
Hu’nei 21818 18.8
Qieding 24631 21.2
total 116290 100.0
name name party Notes
李長生 Li Changsheng KMT I, Alian
蘇綺莉 Su Qili KMT I, Luzhu
程啟龍 Cheng Qilong KMT Son of former CA程進添, Luzhu
張文瑞 Zhang Wenrui DPP I, Tianliao, OSOCA
陳明澤 Chen Mingze DPP I, former chair DPP county branch, Hu’nei
葉香 Ye Xiang DPP Former CA, 2005 lost as DPP, Luzhu
薛明和 Xue Minghe IND Qieding town council speaker
朱聖蕙 Zhu Shenghui IND Wife of former CA史萬忠 (KMT), Qieding
陳東海 Chen Donghai IND Alian mayor, 2005 won as DPP


Kaohsiung City Dist #3 Gangshan Seats:5
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 10
KMT 52.4 7
DPP 25.5 2
PFP 6.7 1
TSU 5.2
IND 10.2
town Eligible votes %
Ganshan 69307 39.2
Qiaotou 28368 16.0
Yanchao 24054 13.6
Yong’an 10698 6.0
Mituo 15828 8.9
Ziguan 28768 16.3
total 177023 100.0
name name party Notes
許福森 Xu Fusen KMT I, CA speaker, red faction, from Gangshan
陸淑美 Lu Shumei KMT I, CA vice-speaker, 白派王金平的系統, from Gangshan
方信淵 Fang Xinyuan KMT I, from Qiaotou
曾水文 Zeng Shuiwen KMT I, from Ziguan
盧謝珊珊 Lu Xie Shanshan KMT I, white faction, wife of former NA 盧文峰, from Gangshan
李蕙蕙 Li Huihui PFP I, wife of former CA 吳承璋, 白派林淵源系統, from Mituo
陳政聞 Chen Zhengwen DPP chair of DPP Kaohsiung City party branch, OSOCA
翁瑞珠 Weng Ruizhu DPP wife of former CA 黃萬全, no base
謝志富 Xie Zhifu IND I, lost DPP primary, no base


Kaohsiung City Dist #4 Zuoying Seats:8
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 10
KMT 47.2 5
DPP 23.0 2
PFP 9.2 1
TSU 5.5 1
IND 15.0 1
town Eligible votes %
Zuoying 131930 52.7
Nanzi 118481 47.3
total 250411 100.0
name name party Notes
陳麗珍 Chen Lizhen KMT I
周鍾淡 Zhou Zhongdan KMT I
陳玫娟 Chen Meijuan KMT I
藍星木 Lan Xingmu KMT I
李眉蓁 Li Meiqin KMT 2006 lost as PFP
林瑩蓉 Lin Yingrong DPP I
黃昭星 Huang Zhaoxing DPP I, OSOCA
張豐藤 Zhang Fengteng DPP
藍健菖 Lan Jianchang TSU I
蔡長根 Cai Changgen IND Former CC, 2006 lost as IND
黃石龍 Huang Shilong IND I, CC vice-speaker
王貴雄 Wang Guixiong IND
楊統一 Yang Tongyi IND


Kaohsiung City Dist #5 Dashu Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 40.4 3
DPP 43.7 3
IND 15.8 1
town Eligible votes %
Dashu 33648 24.9
Dashe 24440 18.1
Renwu 45877 33.9
Niaosong 31306 23.1
total 135271 100.0
name name party Notes
許慧玉 Xu Huiyu KMT I, from Dashe
吳文耀 Wu Wenyao KMT I, Former CA, 2005 lost as KMT but regained seat (stripped from someone else?), from Renwu
吳利成 Wu Licheng KMT I, from Dashu
張勝富 Zhang Shengfu DPP Dashe mayor
錢聖武 Qian Shengwu DPP I, from Renwu
林芳如 Lin Fangru DPP wife of former CA 黃登丕, from Dashu, OSOCA
葉進國 Ye Jin’guo IND I, from Dashe
劉義雄 Liu Yixiong IND
陳秋東 Chen Qiudong IND former Niaosong mayor
何堅心 He Jianxin IND Lost KMT primary


Kaohsiung City Dist #6 Gushan Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 5
KMT 34.2 2
DPP 30.9 2
PFP 3.8
TSU 3.7
IND 27.4 1
town Eligible votes %
Yancheng 23099 17.0
Gushan 89722 65.9
Qijin 23337 17.1
total 136158 100.0
name name party Notes
陳美雅 Chen Meiya KMT I
蔡金晏 Cai Jinyan KMT son of former CC vice-speaker 蔡松雄 (who lost in 2006)
李喬如 Li Qiaoru DPP I
連文堅 Lian Wenjian DPP I
張省吾 Zhang Xingwu IND I
陳漢昇 Chen Hansheng IND I, lost KMT primary, from Qijin (best bailiwick in democratic era)


Kaohsiung City Dist #7 Sanmin Seats:8
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 10
KMT 39.1 4
DPP 31.7 4
PFP 4.9 1
TSU 6.5
IND 17.8 1
town Eligible votes %
Sanmin 267096 100.0
total 267096 100.0
name name party Notes
黃添財 Huang Tiancai KMT I
黃柏霖 Huang Bolin KMT I
梅再興 Mei Zaixing KMT I, formerly as NP, IND
曾俊傑 Zeng Junjie KMT I, son of CC 曾長發
童燕珍 Tong Yanzhen KMT I
洪平朗 Hong Pinglang DPP I
康裕成 Kang Yucheng DPP I, former Kaohsiung County Assembly member, college classmate of DPP chair Cai Yingwen
林武忠 Lin Wuzhong DPP I
黃淑美 Huang Shumei DPP I
楊定國 Yang Dingguo TSU Former CC, 2006 lost as IND
朱朝興 Zhu Chaoxing IND
鄭新助 Zheng Xinzhu IND I, OSOCA
林宏明 Lin Hongming IND
張美瑛 Zhang Meiying IND


Kaohsiung City Dist #8 Lingya Seats:6
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 8
KMT 29.4 2
DPP 28.3 3
PFP 14.0 2
TSU 13.8
IND 14.5 1
town Eligible votes %
Xinxing 45928 21.1
Qianjin 24718 11.3
Lingya 147476 67.6
total 218122 100.0
name name party Notes
莊啟旺 Zhuang Qiwang KMT I
許崑源 Xu Kunyuan KMT I, 2006 won as IND
王齡嬌 Wang Linjiao KMT I, 2006 won as PFP
吳益政 Wu Yizheng PFP I
郭建盟 Guo Jianmeng DPP Former CC, 2006 lost as TSU
周玲妏 Zhou Lingwen DPP I
蕭永達 Xiao Yongda DPP I
黃紹庭 Huang Shaoting IND I, 2006 won as KMT


Kaohsiung City Dist #9 Fengshan Seats:8
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 14
KMT 32.6 5
DPP 30.0 4
PFP 3.6
TSU 2.9
IND 30.9 5
town Eligible votes %
Fengshan 246845 100.0
total 246845 100.0
name name party Notes
劉德林 Liu Delin KMT I
陳粹鑾 Chen Cuiluan KMT I, 2005 won as IND
李雅靜 Li Yajing KMT
郭素桃 Guo Sutao KMT I
程培弘 Cheng Peihong NP 2005 lost as IND in Daliao
張漢忠 Zhang Hanzhong DPP I
陳慧文 Chen Huiwen DPP I, OSOCA
顏曉菁 Yan Xiaojing DPP I, daughter of 顏文章
簡海源 Jian Haiyuan IND I
蘇炎城 Su Yancheng IND I
錢俊 Qian Junci IND I
王榮仁 Wang Rongren IND I
徐榮延 Xu Rongyan IND I, 2005 won as KMT, lost KMT primary
李鋒斌 Li Fengbin IND I, lost KMT primary
楊見福 Yang Jianfu IND
吳思恭 Wu Sigong IND
黃福昌 Huang Fuchang IND
陳宥良 Chen Youliang IND


Kaohsiung City Dist #10 Xiaogang Seats:8
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 10
KMT 28.0 3
DPP 38.0 4
PFP 1.9
TSU 3.6
IND 28.5 3
town Eligible votes %
Qianzhen 150844 58.2
Xiaogang 108527 41.8
total 259371 100.0
name name party Notes
林國正 Lin Guozheng KMT I
陳麗娜 Chen Li’na KMT I
曾麗燕 Zeng Liyan KMT I, 2006 won as IND,夫婿 is former LY 林宏宗
蔡武宏 Cai Wuhong KMT 2006 lost as IND
吳銘賜 Wu Mingsi DPP I
鄭光峰 Zheng Guangfeng DPP I
林宛蓉 Lin Wanrong DPP I
陳信瑜 Chen Xinyu DPP I
劉欣宜 Liu Xinyi TSU
鄭炳輝 Zheng Binghui IND
陳致中 Chen Zhizhong IND Former president’s son, OSOCA
王進忠 Wang Jinzhong IND
李順進 Li Shunjin IND I
蔡媽福 Cai Mafu IND I, 2006 won as KMT
莊政博 Zhuang Zhengbo IND


Kaohsiung City Dist #11 Daliao Seats:4
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 7
KMT 46.1 4
DPP 30.0 2
IND 24.0 1
town Eligible votes %
Linyuan 51045 38.6
Daliao 81107 61.4
total 132152 100.0
name name party Notes
黃天煌 Huang Tianhuang KMT  Daliao mayor, former CA
王耀裕 Wang Yaoyu KMT I, Linyuan
孫祈政 Sun Qizheng KMT I, 2005 won as IND, Daliao
洪秀錦 Hong Xiujin KMT I, Daliao
韓賜村 Han Sicun DPP OSOCA
蔡昌達 Cai Changda DPP I, Daliao
吳淑芬 Wu Shufen TSU
李雨庭 Li Yuting IND lost KMT primary
洪簡金祝 Hong Jian Jinzhu IND  husband is former CA 洪添丁
黃兆呈 Huang Zhaocheng IND Linyuan mayor, former CA
黃順成 Huang Shuncheng IND  former CA
于淑恩 Yu Shu’en IND I, lost KMT primary, Daliao
黃武雄 Huang Wuxiong IND 2005 IND turkey


Kaohsiung City Dist #12 PA Seats:1
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 2
KMT 35.0 1
DPP 31.1
NP 5.4
PFP 13.3 1
IND 15.2
name name party Notes
詹金福 Zhan Jinfu KMT I, 2005 won as PFP
俄鄧‧殷艾 Edeng In’ai DPP Former CC, 2006 lost as DPP
王義雄 Wang Yixiong IND


Kaohsiung City Dist #13 MA Namaxia Seats:1
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 1
PFP 100.0 1
name name party Notes
林國權 Lin Guoquan KMT I, 2006 won as KMT
柯路加 Ke Lujia KMT

周永榮 won KMT nomination but did not register


Kaohsiung City Dist #14 MA Taoyuan Seats:1
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 1
KMT 88.3 1
IND 11.7
name name party Notes
謝貴來 Xie Guilai KMT I
顏金得 Yan Jinde KMT
伊斯坦大.貝雅夫.正 福 Isitanda Beiyafu Zhengfu IND
宋玉清 Song Yuqing IND 2005 lost as IND


Kaohsiung City Dist #15 MA Maolin Seats:1
2005 CC Vote share Seats
Total 1
KMT 100.0 1
name name party Notes
孫慶龍 Sun Qinglong KMT I
唐惠美 Tang Huimei KMT
張正信 Zhang Zhengxin DPP

A Turkey’s Story

September 19, 2010

In elections parlance, a turkey is a candidate who not only has no hope of winning, but moreover gets almost no votes.  Lin Jingyuan 林景元 might be Taiwan’s premier turkey, but, alas, he is not running in this year’s election.

Lin, who is now 85, announced that he would not run in this year’s election because he simply can’t afford the NT2m deposit.  Lin started running in elections when he was 35 and has run 27 different times.  Amazingly, he got off to a good start, winning his first three elections (to the Kaohsiung County Assembly).  Since 1971, however, he has lost 24 straight times.  In recent years (including the entire democratic era), he has never gotten more than a handful of votes.

Lin has run for the Kaohsiung County Assembly, Kaohsiung County Executive, Taiwan Provincial Assembly, Kaohsiung City Council, Legislative Yuan, National Assembly, and Kaohsiung City Mayor.

The news story I am cribbing from did not mention how much he has spent on these quixotic campaigns.  However, the deposits alone must amount to a considerable sum.  Deposits are only refunded if a candidate wins enough votes to pass a certain threshold (currently 10% of eligible voters for a mayoral race, or about 20-25% of the actual votes), and Lin hasn’t come close to this threshold in a long, long time.  Given that the deposit this year is NT2m (about USD 65,000), and he has forfeited handfuls of deposits, he probably isn’t leaving too much to the kids.

Personally, I’m not sad to see him sit out this race.  More turkeys means more data columns in my data files and more work for me.  I have spent countless extra hours because Lin Jingyuan, Fang Jingjun 方景鈞, and their ilk decided to play their games but couldn’t be bothered to actually, you know, get any supporters to vote for them.  Good riddance.

Kaohsiung MRT bleeds cash

September 15, 2010

I’ve been wondering if we would hear anything about the Kaohsiung MRT system during this election cycle, and here it is.

The Control Yuan is investigating the finances of the Kaohsiung MRT, and it has found that the KMRT is hemorrhaging money.  In the year that it has been open, the KMRT has lost NT 7b, and it is quickly running out of cash.

KMRT is officially a private business, but it is, of course, closely tied to the city government.  If the private business goes bankrupt, the city government will be left to bail out the mess.  So if the KMRT runs out of cash, fails to pay bondholders, or something else, the taxpayers can’t just ignore it as if it were a bank. [1]

The Control Yuan doesn’t seem to be accusing anyone of wrongdoing.  The basic problem is simply that not enough people are riding the KMRT so revenues are too low.  (The KMRT is a beautiful system, with gorgeous architecture, nice, shiny trains, and lots of elbow room.  But while having the whole train to yourself can be enjoyable, it makes for a financial disaster.)  I’m not sure whether the population density is too low, the lines were built on the wrong routes, people don’t habitually take mass transportation in Kaohsiung, or people simply haven’t adjusted their lives and transportation habits around the KMRT yet.  It might be something else, too.  However, the Kaohsiung MRT is clearly not part of the everyday lives of Kaohsiung residents the way the Taipei MRT is.

Anyway, one thing I have learned from Taipei politics is that the MRT has political consequences.   On the positive side, you get to spread around lots of contracts worth trainloads of money constructing the system.  On the negative side, once it is built, only negative political credit is possible.  If the system operates perfectly and makes a profit, no one gives you credit.  (Example: Does Mayor Hao get any credit because the Taipei MRT is rolling in profits?  Of course not! )  However, if anything goes wrong, the blame is swift and sharp.  The MRT is a tangible issue that voters can see and understand.  We might not understand the intricacies of health care reform, but everyone can understand a derailed train, a crowded and dirty station, a corruption scandal, or a construction delay.

So I expect to hear a lot more about the Kaohsiung MRT over the next two months.  I don’t think this will be sufficient to derail Chen Ju’s re-election bid, but it might eat into her margin significantly.

[1] That was intentional.

Hao’s travails

September 14, 2010

Every day seems to bring worse and worse news for Mayor Hao.  If before I was shocked that I could see a reasonable path leading him to defeat, now I am finding it increasingly difficult to imagine a path to victory.

On Sept 2, I wrote that he could win the race by rallying the party faithful.  All he needed to do was to turn the race from a contest of personalities into one of parties.  I suggested that one effective way to do that would be to go negative.  I think Hao’s campaign might go negative, but I don’t know that it will work very well any more.

Everything changed a day or two after that post, when accusations that the city was wasting too much money on flowers turned into allegations that corruption was involved.   Hao tried to deal with this by firing the official in charge of the Xinsheng elevated expressway project, for which the flowers in question were purchased.  Yesterday, Hao basically admitted that the responsibility for those decisions went higher up by allowing his vice-mayor and two of his other top advisors to resign.  In fact, the DPP city councilors have argued that the mayor himself is required to approve purchasing decisions as large as this one.

In August, we were getting a picture of Hao as a mildly ineffective mayor.  Sure, he made some questionable decisions on how to allocate money and several of his policy initiatives seemed to suffer from sloppy execution, but mildly ineffective politicians in districts with favorable partisan balances get re-elected all the time.  Now we have a much different and far more corrosive image.  There are two possibilities.  Hao could be corrupt, and he is cynically trying to place the blame for these scandals on his underlings.  Alternatively, Hao could be incompetent, unable to control his underlings or too blind to see what they are doing.  Either of these images could be deadly.

The polls are reflecting these troubles.  I saw references in media stories to KMT internal polls that indicated Su was leading, and now we have a published poll from TVBS (Sept. 8) that shows Su leading 45-42.  (On Aug. 25, TVBS had Hao leading 45-42.)  Maybe more stunning are the changes in Hao’s image.  Whereas previous polls had shown that more people like Hao than disliked him by roughly a 40-32 margin, the new poll showed 34% liking Hao and 35% disliking him.  Likewise, his satisfaction/dissatisfaction numbers went from 37/45 to 34/52.  These are small changes, but given that Su has already consolidated all the easy votes (ie: all the voters who usually lean to or are willing to consider the DPP), it seems that he now is making headway into the harder votes.

I’m trying hard to imagine how Hao can right the ship.  I don’t think negative campaigning will work well any more.  Now Hao’s own image is so damaged that negative ads might simply backfire.  Hao still needs to turn the election into a contest of parties.  However, I think he has to repair his own image a bit first, so that voters who are inclined to vote for the KMT will feel ok about voting for him.

Therein lies the problem.  There are two big things that will happen between now and election day.  First, the Flora Expo will open.  Lots of things could still go wrong.  We could see traffic jams, leaky roofs, dirty restrooms, small crowds, poor staffing, sick flowers, and so on.  But let’s imagine that everything goes well.  Imagine there are larger than expected crowds, everything is organized impeccably, and everyone is entranced by the beauty of the flowers.  Even in this scenario, many people will think that it should have been possible to do this shindig for a lot less money and wonder about kickbacks.  In other words, no matter how well the actual Expo goes, I’m afraid Hao won’t get much credit because the well is already poisoned.

The other big event has a similar problem.  Hao will open a new MRT line.  We haven’t heard about cost overruns, accidents, or construction delays on the Xinzhuang/Luzhou line, much less corruption.  The problem is that another MRT line, the Wenhu line, has been plagued by all sorts of problems in the past few years.   In other words, even if voters change their focus from flowers to MRT lines, Hao still might not benefit very much.

I can’t think of any other potential game-changing events on the schedule.  On one of the talk shows the other night, Sisy Chen was trying to argue that voters simply aren’t giving Hao enough credit for other things that he is doing, and she listed several examples.  I think she is taking the right tack in trying to repair Hao’s image, but she just didn’t have much to work with.  Most of the things she was talking about are in the early stages of planning or construction or are simply very low profile.  Moreover, while she was trying to argue that Hao has done a good job, the media was reporting that Hao had been forced to fire his closest advisors, and the other blue-leaning talk shows were debating whether Hao should step aside and whether his woes would drag down Zhu Lilun in Xinbei City.

The only recent good news for Hao comes out of Su’s camp.  In a recent court case, eight current and former legislators were accused of accepting bribes from the Chinese Medical Association to push for a change in the law.  The case dated to 1996, when Su was in the legislature.  Su was not one of the eight on trial, but there were some documents connecting him to this case.  However, the story seems not to have had legs; I haven’t seen any mention of Su and this scandal since the first news cycle.

This election is not over by any means.  Taipei is still a blue-leaning city, and there are still two months to go.  I expect the KMT to make a big push to rally around Hao.  The rallies in the nights before the election will likely see emotional appeals, arguing that Su’s election would be a disaster and talking about all the wonderful things that Hao has done.  Hao could still win.  However, he, not Su, is now the one with the uphill fight.

Commonwealth poll of county executives

September 8, 2010

Commonwealth Magazine has published survey results showing satisfaction rates for each county/city executive.

Their interpretation of these results is that the top six are all DPP governed counties, while the bottom twelve are all KMT governed.  I have taken the liberty of changing Yang Qiuxing’s party from DPP to IND, since it isn’t quite right to continue to call him a DPP politican.

While the difference in performance by the two big parties is stark, I don’t think it is quite as damning as Commonwealth makes it out to be.  For one thing, their methodology isn’t great.  The sample size is between 500 and 650 in each county, which means the sampling error is +/- 4% or so.  In other words, if two numbers are within about 7%, there might be no statistically significant difference between them.  (Publishing such estimates to the second decimal place is ludicrous; with these sample sizes, even one decimal place is pushing it.)  So pick a scrum.  For example, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between # 6 and #14 or #18 and #21; if you did another poll with exactly the same methodology, you’d probably find an entirely different ordering.  On the other hand, we can be pretty sure that the top 5 are better than the bottom 10, and that the DPP executives, as a group, are better than the KMT executives.

The other big thing that jumps out at me is how high these numbers are.  Commonwealth didn’t give their question wording and response categories, but I assume they are comparable to other such surveys.  Note that the worst satisfaction rating is 45% (Zhou Xiwei, Taipei County).  In contrast, President Ma’s and Premier Wu’s satisfaction ratings are only 31% and 35%, respectively, according to a poll published by Global Views on August 20.  It’s not that Taiwanese are shy about expressing dissatisfaction.  It might be that they are just less critical of local government, or it might be that everyone is doing a passable job.  (Of course, this might be an indication of how abysmal the performance of the national government is, but I tend to lean to the methodology or different standards explanations.)

All that said, don’t think that the various candidates aren’t going to make hay over this survey.

rank County name Name Party % satisfied
1 Kaohsiung County 楊秋興 Yang Qiuxing IND 80.29
2 Ilan County 林聰賢 Lin Congxian DPP 75.20
3 Kaohsiung City 陳菊 Chen Ju DPP 72.12
4 Pingdong County 曹啟鴻 Cao Qihong DPP 71.15
5 Tainan City 許添財 Xu Tiancai DPP 70.83
6 Chiayi County 張花冠 Zhang Huaguan DPP 68.38
7 Hualian County 傅崑萁 Fu Kunqi PFP 68.07
8 Chiayi City 黃敏惠 Huang Minhui KMT 67.46
9 Lianjiang County 楊綏生 Yang Suisheng KMT 66.62
10 Changhua County 卓伯元 Zhuo Boyuan KMT 66.00
11 Yunlin County 蘇治芬 Su Zhifen DPP 65.75
12 Jinmen County 李沃土 Li Wotu KMT 65.22
13 Tainan County 蘇煥智 Su Huanzhi DPP 64.87
14 Penghu County 王乾發 Wang Qianfa KMT 63.93
15 Miaoli County 劉政鴻 Liu Zhenghong KMT 62.69
16 Nantou County 李朝卿 Li Chaoqing KMT 60.33
17 Taidong County 黃健庭 Huang Jianting KMT 58.79
18 Taichung City 胡志強 Hu Zhiqiang KMT 56.27
19 Taoyuan County 吳志揚 Wu Zhiyang KMT 55.36
20 Hsinchu City 許明財 Xu Mingcai KMT 54.28
21 Taipei City 郝龍斌 Hao Longbin KMT 52.26
22 Hsinchu County 邱鏡淳 Qiu Jingchung KMT 47.74
23 Taichung County 黃仲生 Huang Zhongsheng KMT 46.98
24 Keelung City 張通榮 Zhang Tongrong KMT 46.97
25 Taipei County 周錫瑋 Zhou Xiwei KMT 45.09

Remembering Mayor Chen

September 5, 2010

Over the past few weeks, I have seen a few comments about former President Chen that made me want to relive a little history.  Some people wonder how he could have ever been elected president, some wonder whether Taipei City changed during his term as mayor, some think that Su Zhenchang’s current campaign is roughly comparable to Chen’s 1998 campaign, and so on.  Besides, it doesn’t take much to set me off on a nostalgic rambling.

I was living in central Taiwan during the 1994 campaign.  I was able to make it up to Taipei for a few campaign events to catch some of the flavor.  I moved to Taipei in the summer of 1995 and lived there for the rest of the 1990s.  I didn’t live in Taipei prior to Chen’s administration, but every foreigner spends a bit of time in Taipei, so I had some familiarity with it.  As a result, I was in position to view the way the city changed during Chen’s term.

Instead of writing today about what Taipei was like then, I have gone back into the depths of my hard drive to find something I wrote in December 1997.  This is an excerpt of a longer piece, so it doesn’t start or finish very smoothly.  Except for correcting grammatical errors, I have not changed anything in the original essay.  All of my current comments are relegated to the footnotes.

From the time Chen and Hsieh[1] were in the Taipei City Council together, there were comparisons of the two.  As the two progressed in their careers at roughly the same pace, and entered the legislature together, increasingly these comparisons transformed into competition.  This intensified after the 1992 elections, when the two were seen as the leading candidates for the DPP‘s 1994 Taipei City mayoral nomination.  The two were often compared with the rivalry between the two leading strategists of the Three Kingdoms Period (around 220-260 AD), Chou Yu and Chuko Liang.  And as in that rivalry, where Chou Yu was a brilliant strategist who just happened to be going up against the only person more brilliant than him, Hsieh was clearly losing out in public opinion to Chen.  In Chinese, the newspapers often referred to 長扁之爭。  But as poll after poll showed Chen to be the top choice, Hsieh occasionally showed irritancy and hints that he didn’t believe and wouldn’t accept that result.  In the 1993 county magistrate elections, Chen campaigned heavily all over Taiwan and was warmly received everywhere (although nothing like what would happen four years later).  For a while, Chen considered running for governor of Taiwan Province instead of Taipei mayor.  Hsieh, needless to say, encouraged this.  However, Chen took a realistic look at the situation and made the right choice.  He had a reasonable choice of winning in Taipei City, but not much chance in Taiwan Province.  In Taipei City, the New Party would split the KMT‘s vote; in Taiwan Province this would not be the case.  Chen decided to stay in the Taipei City race, much to Hsieh’s disappointment.

The party primary finally took place in mid-1994.  To no one‘s surprise, Chen won by a good margin.  The question was how Hsieh would take the news.  At the time, there was still speculation that he might run anyway, or at the very least, force the primary into the second stage, a series of debates and then voting open to the public.  Party insiders feared that this would be a highly divisive process (as indeed it was when it finally occurred in the next year’s presidential primary).  However, Hsieh averted this by announcing that 長扁之爭 would now become 長扁之盟 (minus the poetry, this roughly means that the competition between Hsieh and Chen would be replaced by an alliance between the two.)  Officially, Hsieh would also serve as Chen‘s campaign chief.

In truth, Hsieh worked hard for Chen’s election, but the campaign was run by two political youths, Luo Wen-chia and Ma Yung-cheng.  Both under 30 at the time, these two had gained Chen‘s trust during their tenure as legislative assistants, and he delegated enormous amounts of power to them.  Together, they were tagged with the nickname 羅罵軍 or “The Roman Army” (the Chinese transliteration is luo-ma, exactly the same two characters as the surnames of Chen’s leading generals.)  They ran a brilliant campaign, and after they won, were both brought into the Taipei City government.

The 1994 Taipei City mayoral campaign is important not just because it brought about a change in political power and gave the DPP its first real chance to control resources, it also defined the New Party and brought about a realignment in the voting patterns of the capital city that persisted through the 1995 LY and 1996 NA elections.  While the 1996 presidential elections didn‘t follow this pattern, that should be no surprise — that election didn’t follow previous patterns anywhere.  The tone of the campaign was set early, in Taiwan‘s first TV debate.  In this debate, coming nearly two months before the election, the three candidates set out the positions from which their campaigns would be run.  Chen spoke of corruption in the city government, quality of life, and what he would do to improve the way the city was run.  Huang Ta-chou, the KMT incumbent, spoke of his incompetence.  Well, that wasn’t the content of what he said, but that is what came across very clearly.  Huang was incompetent.  He couldn’t express a thought, he couldn‘t defend himself when the other two accused him of incompetence or corruption, he couldn’t even use all the time allotted him.  It was the worst performance I have ever seen a politician turn in.[2] He took a thrashing from the other two candidates and gave the voters no reason to believe all the attacks weren‘t true.  The English newspaper was being kind to him the next day when it described the debate as what “must have been an incredibly difficult and embarrassing experience for Huang.”  The NP candidate, Chao Shao-kang, made the most enduring contribution to the debate.  He defined his campaign as a campaign to save the ROC.  His strategy was to turn the election into a referendum on independence and to define himself as the most pro-unification candidate.  Up to this point, the NP hadn’t defined itself to be so stringently anti-independence, but after this, the NP came to be seen as an increasingly extremist party.  It also got tagged with the label “mainlanders‘ party”.  Chao’s call to save the ROC effectively mobilized the mainlanders to support him and the NP.  Unfortunately, mainlanders make up less than 15% of the population in Taiwan, and maybe twice that in Taipei City.  Chao won the battle.  The NP beat the KMT and established a firm foothold in Taiwan politics.  Up to that point, it wasn‘t clear that the NP would be a viable party; after the 1994 campaign, it was clear that it would.  However, Chao may have lost the war.  By identifying his party so clearly with mainlanders, he may have alienated too many Taiwanese to ever win more than 15% of the total vote.  And as it becomes clear that the NP faces a very clear ceiling, its members play zero-sum infighting games and voters desert the party for candidates who might have better prospects.

It was an electric campaign.  DPP forces were highly mobilized behind Chen, and his rallies were all packed and noisy.  NP voters are notable for their participation.  They go to events, and they chant and cheer, though in a much more orderly fashion than DPP supporters.  The KMT had very little in this regard, but, hey, what‘s new?  As for the polls, Chen Shui-pien showed a consistent lead until a couple of weeks before the election when Shih Ming-teh[3] made his stupid comment about pulling troops out of Chinmen and Matsu.  Suddenly Chen’s numbers took a dive.  However, the polls showed Huang, not Chao, as taking over the lead.[4] The outcome of the voting was different.  Chen won easily with 43%.  Chao came in second with 30%.  And Huang Ta-chou, Lee Teng-hui‘s handpicked candidate, could only manage 25%.

Chen took office in an atmosphere I have seldom seen.  It was a genuine honeymoon.  Whatever Chen did, he could do no wrong.  Something like my impression of Camelot.  The first thing Chen did went right to the heart of public doubts about the DPP‘s ability to govern.  Chen used a lot of career public servants, academics, and KMT members.  Something like two thirds of the people he appointed were KMT members.  It was, in effect, an admission that all the critics were right, but that Chen intended to govern anyway.  However, none of these outsiders were actually given much political power.  Nearly all political power and responsibility for major decisions was restricted to a group of about five or so people.  This group roughly included Chen himself, the vice mayor Chen Shih-meng (borrowed from the NTU Dept of Economics), the two campaign generals Luo and Ma, head of the Department of Civil Affairs Chen Che-nan and head of the Department of Social Affairs Chen Chu.

In office, Chen has definitely governed, as opposed to merely occupying the position.  I rarely have any clue what local governments do (and if I have no clue, imagine what the average citizen who cares very little about politics knows); however, I can run off a list of things that Chen has done.  They can even be subdivided into various categories.

The first is traffic.  During the Huang administration, we often heard of “The Dark Ages of Taipei Traffic”.  No more.  Chen has taken several measures to improve the flow of traffic and has been astonishingly successful.  The first thing concerns the MRT line.  This in itself was enough to defeat Huang.  The MRT had massive costs overruns, massive corruption, massive delays, and massive disputes with the French contractor, Matra.  (A great campaign line referred to the cost of the line after all the budget overruns:  444,400,000,000 NT.  In Taiwanese, four sounds exactly like death, and Chen used this over and over: “death, death, death, death”.)  In addition, there was serious speculation that, after all this trouble, the system wasn‘t safe and might have to be buldozed.  When Chen took office, he appointed a committee to do a thorough review of the line, and they concluded that some supporting columns needed reinforcement.[5] The reinforcement was done and the line was opened one year after Chen took office.  Regardless of the actual needs (which I am in no position to judge), politically it was brilliant.  After all the focus on the problems, no one would have believed that nothing was wrong.  On the other hand, they couldn’t possibly bulldoze it after investing so much money.  This was a compromise which satisfied nearly everyone.  This was just the beginning of straightening up the MRT mess.  The line in question, the Mucha Line, is merely the first in a whole network.  But Chen has resolved many of the other questions as well.  Corruption, which was rampant, has disappeared.  During the Huang administration, two MRT chiefs were indicted for corruption.  The contrast could not be more evident.  This, by the way, is not only the case in the MRT bureau.  The entire Taipei City government has turned over a new leaf.  The MRT is merely the most notable case.  The MRT delays have also been greatly reduced.  A year after opening the Mucha Line, Chen opened the Tanshui Line, and set a goal of opening the next line on the same day in 1998.  The dispute with Matra was also resolved, although in a much less neat fashion.  Chen terminated their contract.  For a while, observers wondered whether Taipei could run its MRT without Matra, but it hasn‘t collapsed yet.  There have been frequent breakdowns (a flat tire, a stopped train), but these breakdowns have all been minor irritants rather than major incidents.  It might be that there is a time lag between Matra’s departure and the collapse of the Mucha Line, but the collapse hasn‘t happened yet.

While the MRT is the highest profile traffic project, in reality it only serves a small portion of Taipei‘s population.[6] The real improvements in traffic have been made elsewhere.  One of the first things Chen did upon taking office was to greatly increase the number of traffic police.  Now, there are policemen at every intersection which could remotely be described as “major” assuring that traffic flows smoothly during rush hour.  Chen also pioneered the “bus only” lanes to ensure that public transportation would not be bogged down along with the rest of the cars and trucks.  This program is very effective.  The busses can get to their destinations faster than private cars or even taxis, so more people take busses, which in turn reduces the total number of cars on the road, thus alleviating traffic congestion.  He has also undertaken an initiative against parking on the streets of Taipei.  The towtruck armies have been expanded and are much more active.  Chen has even repainted the legal parking spaces to make them smaller and thus less convenient for big cars.  (This particular action could be viewed skeptically, as a common image is the DPP voters ride scooters; KMT and NP voters drive cars.  However, I am not convinced by this argument.  Chen has his fair share of car owning supporters.)  These were not difficult or expensive actions, they required only a little imagination and the will to experiment.  This is also another good contrast between the current and previous city governments.  When faced with this type of problem, the approach of past administrations was to do something big and spend a lot of money.  So they planned a MRT system and lots of new roads.  Truth be told, the planning capability of the Huang administration was excellent,[7] their problem was that they were terrible at execution.  Chen‘s approach has been the opposite.  While he continues Huang’s large scale construction, he has not launched any of his own grandiose projects.  Rather he has focused on using what he has more effectively.  The result has been striking.  Not only is it cheaper, the effect is much more immediate.  He gets the political credit.[8]

A second major “good government” type of initiative has been to revamp the city government.  Before Chen took office, the common image of the city government was of a hulking, immobile bureaucracy.  Chen served notice almost immediately.  He took office at the end of December 1994.  Chen informed officials that the old custom of long New Years holidays was history.  Their job was to serve the people, and his city government would be open and functioning as soon as the holiday was over.  The first day after the Chinese New Year vacation ended (Jan-Feb 1995), Chen held an inspection of all government offices at 9:00am sharp.  He toured the city government with a TV camera crew in tow and bawled out unit after unit when he found that a large proportion of city officials were still on vacation.  This worked.  Chen hurt a lot of feelings, but the general opinion is that the Taipei City government has transformed from one of the least efficient government bodies in Taiwan to one of the most efficient.  (This may just be image.  I‘m not an expert on the actual workings of government.  However, for our purposes, image is what’s important.  Most citizens won‘t dispute the idea that Chen runs a much tighter ship than Huang or his predecessors ever did.)[9]

A third initiative involved what I would refer to as the morality campaigns.  This involves two separate campaigns striking directly at the heart of organized crime.  One was against video gambling; the other against the sex industry.  On both counts, Chen has been impossibly successful.  I used to believe that these were phenomena which could not easily be eradicated, and I still do to a certain degree.  But they have both been largely eradicated in Taipei City.  One day, Chen announced that he was closing down all unlicensed video gambling arcades (which means all of them).  I laughed.  In past experience, that meant the arcades would take a one week vacation and then continue normal operations, if they even deigned to do that much.  But not this time.  This time they really did close down, and they haven‘t reopened for the most part.  The crackdown on the sex industry was even more remarkable.  Chen has driven perhaps 95% of these businesses out of the city, or at least the ones that operated with huge neon fronts and barkers in the door front twisting the arms of every male passerby to come in and try out the wares.  These businesses have folded.  I am particularly impressed by the number of “for rent” signs on brothel storefronts.  They aren’t just waiting for this campaign to blow over before reopening.  They are closed for good.  (Of course, what has really happened is that many have moved across the river to Taipei County.  Should Su Chen-chang try to emulate Chen, he would probably face far stiffer resistance, as capitulation there would mean surrender of the entire greater Taipei marketplace.  Su, in addition, has far fewer resources with which to fight the organized crime industry.)  These two morality campaigns have to have earned Chen the respect of large amounts of middle class voters, especially female voters.

Chen has also been true to his opposition roots in many symbolic actions against the KMT.  One friend of mine described Chen as being like the first Irish mayor of Boston.  The KMT spends millions of dollars on a new party headquarters[10] facing the presidential palace to remind citizens that it is the premier (and perhaps only legitimate) political party, and then they run into Chen.  Chen finds numerous fire and building code violations and refuses to issue a license to open the building.  The KMT wanted to open it two or three years ago.  Today, the steel gate is still pulled down tight and is beginning to rust and there are no signs that it will open soon.  The road in front of the presidential palace used to be called “Jieshou Rd” which meant literally “long life to Chiang Kai-shek”.  Chen renamed the road Kaidagelan Boulevard, after the tribe of aborigines that lived in the Taipei Basin before Han settlers arrived.  This completely changed the tone of the road from symbolizing links with China to symbolizing Taiwan‘s own history.  Independence factions laughed with glee while old veterans tried not to vomit in disgust.  The same type of petty partisan politics was in evidence when Chen refused to renew a lease to provincial government owned Taiwan TV for a transmitter.  Chen instead chose to lease it to the upstart and DPP friendly Formosa TV.  Another example occurred when Chen ordered the demolition of Chiang Wei-kuo’s residence in Shihlin on the grounds that it was an illegal structure.  Chiang Wei-kuo was the adopted brother of Chiang Ching-kuo, a fact that probably contributed somewhat to the singling out of this particular building among Taipei‘s thousands of illegal structures.  It should be noted that Chen has been careful to keep these initiatives to the symbolic level where nobody but the hardliners on both sides give them much weight.  Chen consolidates his support among the independence faction (and so can afford to ignore them on more important issues), and was never going to get the unification votes anyway.  Chen changed the name of the road in front of the presidential palace, but this is a short road with about three or four actual addresses, most of which are government buildings.  He never even entertained the thought of changing more offensive road names which run through residential districts.  That kind of action would inconvenience thousands of voters.

The last major series of initiative involves popular activities.  At various times, the city government has held large scale activities to commemorate various occasions.  These activities have been mostly the responsibility of the Information Office, and its former head Luo Wen-chia.  The first of these activities was a large scale dance for students the night after the joint college entrance exam.  They closed off a major road and went the whole nine yards, with light shows, pop stars, of course, lots of teenagers.  (This is also the event where Chen dressed up as a mixture of Micheal Jackson and Superman, a picture which the KMT loves to circulate.)  There was a lot of controversy over whether the city government should be doing this type of thing, but I think overall it was a positive action.  If nothing else, it was a way for students to blow off steam.  Other large scale events included a Lantern Festival extravaganza, a Retrocession Day blast, and numerous other smaller activities on most holidays.  It was at one of these smaller activities that the tug-of-war incident took place.  (How did your political career end?  In a bizarre tug-of-war accident. [11] )  The incident cost Luo Wen-chia his job,[12] but the activity was representative of a larger strategy.  Unlike other local governments, this local government was active, always doing things for its people.

If it sounds like I am impressed by the Chen administration, that‘s because I AM impressed.  He has done an incredible job.  He ran on a promise of good government and has delivered far beyond what anyone expected.  It might be argued that Chen’s “accomplishments” are really a reflection of his media savvy.  He is in the capital and the media spotlight and he is an expert at spinning the news to his advantage.  This is true.  The tug-of-war incident is a case in point.  He turned that disaster into a positive by good crisis management practices.  However, this is not the whole story.  It‘s easy for him to spin the news because there is meat present.  He is not inventing stories about good government.  The efficient government exists; Chen merely finds ways to persuade the media to report it.  During the Huang administration, corruption was rampant, so the media reported that.  There is plenty of media hostile to Chen, and they would love a juicy corruption story, but they haven’t found one yet.  To write Chen off as a media creation would be naive.

To provide a balanced picture of Chen‘s short tenure (only three years at this point), I should also point out some of his setbacks.  The most constant source of conflict has been with the city council.  The city council is split between the three parties: the KMT has the most, the DPP has exactly one third, and the NP has the least number of seats.  However, no party has a majority, or to put it another way, an alliance of any two parties will produce a majority.  Unfortunately for Chen, the KMT and NP have formed a fairly solid alliance based on opposition to Chen and have badgered him mercilessly throughout his tenure.  At one point they even slashed the gasoline budget for Chen’s car.  This backfired when Chen started taking taxis to work, accompanied by camera crews (of course), thus exposing the tactic as petty and mean.  (This is, by the way, exactly the type of tactic DPP politicians, including Chen, had engaged in over and over in the past.  The KMT/NP coalition probably thought they would just give Chen a taste of his own medicine.  What they didn‘t consider was the fact that the DPP generally aimed its actions against unelected, unpopular, and unaccountable government figures who there was often no other way to attack, while this action was aimed at a popularly elected and media savvy opponent.)  A more crucial setback occurred when a DPP councilor broke ranks with Chen.  This particular councilor, Lin Rui-tu, is an expert on the MRT system.  He wanted to demolish the whole thing.  When Chen showed pragmatism by choosing to reinforce the structure, Lin bolted.[13] This is critical because without Lin, the DPP caucus no longer has the one-third necessary to uphold a mayoral veto.  Chen cannot impose his will on the council.  Fortunately for Chen, the council doesn’t have much power.  Like the Provincial Assembly, it passes the budget and interrogates ministers, and not much else.  However, these interpolation sessions are rarely civil, and violence has broken out.  Predictably, this has hurt the council‘s prestige more than the mayor’s.  The campaign against the mayor has been led by the speaker of the Taipei City Council, Chen Chien-chih.  Mayor Chen is lucky to have an antagonist of Speaker Chen‘s quality; most politicians have to face competent opponents.  For the most part, the mayor has been able to ignore the city council.  However, his party’s minority status there has probably necessitated his focus on small scale projects aimed at improving efficiency.  Any large scale projects would probably be doomed in attempts to get funding bills through the city council.

One of Chen‘s efforts to improve relations with the city council resulted in a setback for both the council and himself.  The issue was a very generous pension plan for councilors based on tenure in the council.  The proposal was rammed through by the speaker (who has the longest tenure in the council and would thus get the most money) via some very questionable legislative tactics.  It should be noted that it was generally supported by senior councilors (regardless of party) and opposed by more junior members.  This was not a partisan plan, though it was highly associated by the media with the KMT speaker.  The media immediately dubbed the plan the “self fattening bill” and gave it intense coverage.  The council backed down quickly, repealing the bill just days after it passed.  Then the blame game started.  The council tried to blame the mayor, who they said had initiated this bill.  (This always struck me as a stupid argument: We never wanted this pork; he forced us to put our snouts in the trough.)  The mayor‘s version was different, of course.  He claimed that a group of senior councilors demanded this bill.  He told them that he didn’t think they could digest it, but if they thought they would be able to swallow, they were welcome to take a bite.  Regardless, it was a media disaster for both the mayor and the city council.

Another setback occurred over the condemnation of some residences for the building of a park.  There is a prequel to this story that must be related.  During the Huang administration, the city government decided to build a huge park in the Da-an district.  They condemned the land and told the people to move out.  The people protested.  Politicians, especially DPP politicians, made a huge issue out of it.  They claimed to represent the people against an oppressive government, etc etc.  The result was (yet another) loss of political capital for the Huang administration.  When the bulldozers went in, the cameras were solidly focused on all the lives they were disrupting, and not a few people refused to leave.  (A footnote: this is now the best park in Taipei City.  As usual, the Huang administration did a great job of planning and a lousy job of execution.)  The park became a symbol of bad government, and both the Chen and Chao campaign headquarters were located across the street from it.

Time passes.  Chen takes office.  Another park[14] is to be built.  In this case, not only are there numerous residents in mostly illegal structures, they are almost all mainlanders.  This area was built up when the KMT was desperately trying to find housing space for all its new arrivals in the early 1950‘s.  So they built shanties.  The result was that Chen faced a potential political mess in addition to the potential social mess.  Any forcible evictions would almost certainly be interpreted as petty bullying of old soldiers.  For the most part, the Taipei City government convinced the residents to move out.  However, there was a small number who didn’t want to move, or didn‘t think the terms of compensation were fair.  The media focused on these.  Eventually, Shih Ming-teh turned up to “mediate”.  (The choice of Shih Ming-teh, arch enemy of the KMT and noted rabble rouser to represent old army veterans was, to say the least, strange.[15])  He ended up denouncing the city government.  (Relations between Chen and Shih were never good, but until then they at least kept their differences under the table.)  Chen’s reaction was swift and effective.  He used the DPP party machinery to silence Shih.  This all made for fertile media fodder.  Overall, this condemnation went much more smoothly than the earlier one, but there was plenty of coverage of Chen playing the role of bully.  I don‘t know if the public interpreted this case as an example of determination to build a better city, or as authoritarian tendencies on Chen’s part.  However, it was a major media event, and will probably be revived in the 1998 campaign. [16]

Overall, this is a very strong record.  If you asked me to say what Lien Chan or Song Chu-yu have done in office, I wouldn‘t be able to come up with anything nearly as comprehensive, and certainly not as favorable.  Chen has been under intense scrutiny for the past three years and has performed beyond expectations.

Chen is also riding high at the moment.  The KMT made a huge mistake in trying to attack him before the 1997 elections.  The move backfired and made Chen into a hero.  He has always been a big draw on the stump, but nothing like in this last campaign.  This time, he got crowds numbering in the tens of thousands nearly every night.  And where before, he could pick who he wanted to campaign for; now he is viewed almost as a resource to precious to not be used on everyone.  He had to make appearances for every candidate.  The official DPP campaign group led by the party chaiman didn‘t get nearly as much attention.  The campaign also elevated speculation about a run for the presidency into practically a done deal.  Where before there were lots of pundits saying Chen should wait until 2004, this opinion has just about disappeared.  And within the DPP, no one would dream of opposing a Chen presidential bid.  Recently there has been speculation as to whether Chen would run for party chairman as well.  (Currently, he seems to be leaning against it.)  It is instructive that the only people coming out against this were members of Chen’s own faction.  When Chang Chun-hung, a leader of the Formosa Faction, urged Chen to choose between the chairmanship and the mayorship, he was met by rebellion within his own ranks.  Very quickly, Chang was clarifying his remarks.  If Chen wanted to run for chairman, they would certainly support him, and Chang personally wasn‘t even considering running for chairman at that time (a patent lie).  DPP members see a chance to win power, and they don’t dare do anything which would damage that chance.  If Chen wants the chairmanship, they will give it to him.  Only his own faction can speak out without being accused of hurting the cause.  It‘s almost like Nixon in China.

Can Chen win?  Maybe.  But it‘s too early for that question.  He still has to win re-election in December and govern Taipei City for another two years.[17]

[1] Frank Hsieh (謝長廷 Xie Changting), later Kaohsiung City Mayor, Premier, and presidential candidate.

[2] 13 years later, I still haven’t seen any worse performance than Huang’s.

[3] Shih was DPP party chair at the time.

[4] I’ve tried to go back and verify this, but my quick and dirty search isn’t revealing clear patterns.  For the last month of the election, all three candidates were at about 20% in the polls, usually with Chen a couple points ahead of the other two.  This represented a boost in Huang’s fortunes, but Huang’s numbers seemed to have started rising about a week before Shih’s gaffe.  Prior to that, I can’t get a clear read on the state of the race, but it seems clear that Chen was closer to 30% and Huang lagged behind, often in the single digits.  Chao was anywhere from 10% to 25%.  Well, polling was not very accurate back then.  People didn’t always answer sincerely (martial law was still a clear memory), and the KMT often arranged for fake polls designed to confuse to be published.

[5] These are the steel jackets on the concrete pillars on Fuxing South Road.

[6] Wow.  I can’t believe I thought that.  The MRT has fundamentally transformed the way people live in Taipei.  Of course, the blue and orange lines still hadn’t opened yet.

[7] The Mucha line was not well planned.  The trains are too small, and it doesn’t go through the most populated areas of Mucha.  I have a vague impression that the awkward route was connected to some land speculation schemes.  The other lines were much better planned, as was Civic Blvd and Huangdong Expressway.

[8] Chen also managed the impossible by requiring motorcycle riders to wear helmets.  Through the early 1990s, almost no one wore a helmet anywhere in Taiwan.  The government would periodically announce that it was going to start enforcing helmet laws, but no one ever paid attention.  I think no one ever had the political will to hand out lots of tickets.  When Chen announced that he would enforce helmet laws, I expected the same thing to happen.  On February 28, no one wore helmets.  On March 1, everyone did.  It was astounding.  (There was no change across the river in Taipei County.)  This mayor was really different: when he announced a change, people not only expected that things would change, things really did change.

[9] Another aspect of this was the focus on customer service.  Chen tore out the old service windows, which forced people to look over a high counter and allowed the official to close the window.  He replaced them with low tables.  This allowed the citizen to sit down at an equal level with the official.  This was symbolic of the effort to make officials respond to the needs of citizens rather than to expect citizens to jump at the commands of imperious officials.  Regular citizens loved this initiative; public servants hated it.   They groused for years about the loss of prestige and respect.

[10] The building was finally allowed to open, and the KMT enjoyed its palatial headquarters for a few years.  The KMT later sold this building.  It is now the Chang Yung-fa Foundation.

[11] [Note: Unlike the body of this post, this footnote is produced entirely from my memory 13 years later.  Memories are famously unreliable, so this might not be exactly how everything happened.]

Taiwan was going through a strange tug-o-war fad at the time.  Several groups held contests all over the island, and the twist was that each contest tried to include more people than the previous ones.   So instead of having ten or twelve people on each side, they were getting hundreds of people on each side.  I think some of them were trying to get into the Guinness Book of World Records.  Now, you can’t just line up three hundred people on each side of a rope and start pulling; that would require a really long rope.  Instead, they used one main rope that had many smaller ropes attached to it.  So you might have a dozen or two people on each smaller rope, angled away from the main rope at 20 degrees.  Imagine 10-30 of these smaller ropes on each side, angling away from the main rope in pairs.  This produced tremendous amounts of tension, and as the contests got bigger and bigger, they didn’t realized just how much force was being produced.  In the ill-fated Taipei City tug-o-war, the main rope snapped.  Of course, everyone fell backward.  However, the real problem was that the ropes were also flung backward at tremendous speeds, and the smaller ropes were thin enough that they were like knives, cutting through anything they encountered.  Unfortunately, this included some of the participants.  Several were injured, and two people were seriously injured.  One of them had his arm completely severed.

The contest was sponsored by the Bureau of Information, headed by Luo Wenjia.  Luo and the rest of the city government  reacted as if this were a major disaster.  Luo instantly apologized and resigned, and Mayor Chen similarly publicly took full responsibility and allowed the criticism to be heaped on him.  There was no effort to talk about bad luck or spin the news as not so bad.  There was also no scapegoat; they didn’t blame some lower-level official.  Instead, the blame went right to the top, with Chen sacrificing his most trusted aide and facing the media himself. They also didn’t try to deflect the news by talking about something else.  Instead, Chen (and Luo)  spent quite a bit of time at the hospital with the injured people.  I remember the man with the severed arm, in particular.  The doctors were able to reattach the limb, and the guy regained use of it within a few days.  But what I remember most clearly was that he was a die-hard DPP supporter, and he kept telling Chen and Luo not to worry and the media what wonderful people they were.  I don’t care how much I liked a politician, if my arm had just been cut off, I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t be worrying about how he felt.

By about a week after the event, it had become clear that Chen and Luo had handled the accident quite well.  The people involved weren’t screaming for justice, and the media applauded Chen’s crisis management and refusal to duck responsibility.  The latter, in particular, contrasted sharply with what people had come to expect from the KMT government.  In retrospect, this also contrasts sharply with the way Chen mishandled the Bazhang Creek tragedy in the first few months of his presidency.

[12] Luo’s career did not end there, to say the least.

[13] Lin has been one of Chen’s most strident critics ever since.  He is still at it.  Lin was one of the people behind the recent accusations that Chen’s son hired prostitutes.

[14] These are the Number 14 and Number 15 parks, located at the corner of Linsen North Road and Nanjing East Road.

[15] Today, after Shih’s political reincarnation as leader of the Red Shirt Army, this seems less incongruous.  At the time, it seemed like poking a thumb in the old veterans’ eyes.

[16] The KMT’s 1998 campaign against Chen was centered on the idea that he was authoritarian and stubborn.  This theme resonated, probably because it was based in reality.

[17] Funny, but in late 1997 I seem not to have been aware that there might be a timing problem between the two elections.  That is, there were only 16 months between the December 1998 mayoral election and the March 2000 presidential election.  The thought that Chen was going to make a serious run in 2000 must have been so new that no one had yet raised this issue.

What should Hao do?

September 2, 2010

From the perspective of the KMT, the Taipei mayoral race is currently a disaster.  Let’s recount the situation.  The KMT has an incumbent (that’s supposed to be an advantage!) running for re-election in a district that the KMT/pan-Blue side has never lost when it is not divided.  By all accounts, the DPP faces a hard ceiling at about 45%.  Here is some election history:

year race KMT DPP
1998 Mayor 51 46
2000 President 62* 38
2002 Mayor 64 36
2004 President 57 43
2006 Mayor 54 41
2008 President 63 37

*Lien + Soong

The only close race there is 1998.  Chen Shuibian was running for re-election after a transformative first term as mayor.  It’s hard to overstate just how good his performance was.  He still didn’t win.  Granted, the KMT nominated its own start that year in Ma Yingjeou, but 1998 has always been seen as the upper limit for the DPP.

A base of around 40% would not be an insurmountable obstacle in other areas.  In February, the DPP won a by-election in Hsinchu County starting from a much smaller base.  However the electorate in Taipei is much more politicized and polarized than anywhere else in Taiwan.  Party identification is stronger here, and candidates’ personal qualities matter a lot less.  Everything runs much more according to party lines here.  This makes elections a lot easier to understand, since you simply aren’t likely to get wild swings.   If the underlying electorate of Taipei City is basically a 55-40 split, it’s extremely difficult to envision that turning into a 49-51 result in any particular election.

However, at this point, we have to start imagining that such a result is, in fact, not only possible but increasingly probable.  Most polls still show Mayor Hao with a tiny lead, but he is getting hammered in the media every day.  If nothing changes, he is going to lose.

What’s going on?  Right now the election is all about Mayor Hao.  Every day brings new criticism for something he is not doing well.  It might be the condition of roads, public exercise centers that cause headaches for neighbors, rising property prices, his comical efforts to get people to lower their air conditioners to 26C, the Xinsheng Elevated Expressway, and, above all, the Flora Expo.  He just can’t seem to get credit for doing anything right.  Today’s news had a story about how his inner circle only has three people – he even gets criticized for the way he gets advice!  So right now, when voters think about the election, a large number are thinking in terms of what a lousy job Hao is doing.  In other words, this is fast becoming a nonpartisan election about good governance.

Where is Su in all this?  He’s barely a factor.  He says a few non-controversial things, sighs, and says he wishes Hao could do a better job.  Then he flies off to Singapore or Los Angeles.  Ok, that’s probably a bit of an exaggeration, but Su’s strategy thus far has been to stay out of the way.   When your opponent is drowning himself, why get involved?  (Note: Su should get a bit of credit for this restraint.  Not all politicians can resist the lure to do something.)

What does Hao need to do to turn this around?  He needs to reorient this election as a choice between the KMT and DPP.   He needs to remind the electorate that the alternative to him is a DPP politician with clear presidential aspirations.  They can’t escape the partisan implications that this race has, so they need to vote for the party they like best.  In Taipei, that ensures a KMT victory.

Hao needs to go negative.

He should stop talking about flowers and start talking about Su’s presidential dream.  He should label Su as a Taiwan independence extremist.  He should start calling him Su Shuibian.  Attack his record as Taipei County Executive and Premier.  Revive the attack that Su spent wildly with a bit of sensationalism added.  If he spent NT600million a month every month he was in office, call him Su Liuyi (Su 600m).  Challenge him to a debate in English and ridicule his (perceived) lack of cosmopolitanism.  Lampoon his lousy ideas about the environment.   And then, I’d advise Hao to roll out the slander.  Comb through Su’s records in office and find something that either is or could be made to look suspicious.  Get the attack dogs of the blue media to start frothing.  Force Su to respond and call you a liar.  Turn this campaign into a nasty slushball fight.  Make sure that by the end of the campaign, voters have lost all sense of what is and what isn’t factual, so that all they have to go on is party label.  If both candidates are rats, all voters can do is vote for the rat from the better party.

Maybe you worry that this type of strategy would ruin Hao’s reputation, that even if he won, he would destroy himself in the process.  To this I answer, would it be better to lose?  One term mayors who lose in spite of overwhelmingly favorable partisan electorates don’t enjoy good reputations.  Historians, journalists, and the average person have to explain the loss somehow, and the only good answer is that the mayor did a lousy, lousy job.  If Hao loses, all people will remember is ineptitude and corruption.  (Case in point: How is Huang Dazhou 黃大洲 remembered?)  If Hao wins, the discourse will say he wasn’t great in office, but he wasn’t enough of a disaster to lose the election.  Moreover, he will have four more years to try to build a new, better reputation.

If you, dear reader, are repulsed by my advice, fear not.  There doesn’t seem to be any chance that Hao will follow my suggested course.  (I am not, after all, one of the three people who has his ear.)  In fact, Hao seems to be taking the exact opposite tack.  In the past week, he has stated a couple of times that the election is no longer important, the important thing is to have a successful Flora Expo.   In other words, he is going to continue to focus on governance instead of politics.  This means that the media will continue to focus on his performance in office.  Moreover, by stating his priorities thusly, it seems Hao is tacitly admitting that his performance so far hasn’t been great.  In other words, he is asking you to judge him on the basis of credentials that even he admits are not very appealing.

Meanwhile, Su stands by as the alternative, quite content for voters to think of him in the context of his long-established reputation as a good administrator rather than as the next DPP presidential candidate.

(Splash of cold water:  Hao is still leading in the polls.  Maybe I am over-reacting.  His strategy might still win.  I’m sure mine would.)