legislators and re-election

I was thinking about the re-election incentive[1] for a paper I am planning to write, and I realized I’ve never put together numbers on how many people run for re-election.  So I put together a dataset of all legislators from the 2^nd to 6^th terms (1993-2007), looking at whether they ran for and/or won re-election.  Each legislator in each term counts as a separate case (ie: there are five separate cases for Wang Jinping since he had to decide whether to contest re-election each time).  Also, this data set includes everyone who served in the legislature, including people who won by-elections and people who were substituted in for party list legislators who quit or were kicked out of their party (and therefore forfeited their seats).  A legislator is considered to seek re-election if s/he is a candidate in the next general election.   So here are some cuts of the data.

First, the big picture.  About a fourth of legislators don’t run for re-election, and another fifth run and lose.  So three-fourths of legislators seek re-election, and a fourth of those who do seek re-election lose.  This looks like the re-election incentive is very strong.  Of the quarter who do not seek re-election, probably a very high percentage of them would have liked to be re-elected but simply saw that it was not very likely and chose not to fight.  Many of them sought but did not get nominations and chose not to run.[2] Another chunk of them sought election to other offices, generally county executives.  It is hard to know exactly what percentage of the retiring legislators were forced out and what percentage retired willingly, but my guess is that at least half were unwilling.  All in all, re-election looks very desirable.

It also looks very hard.  Lots and lots of incumbents lose.  This is nothing like the 90% re-election rates in the USA or Japan.  In Taiwan, losing is a very realistic possibility for everyone every time.  (In fact, I wrote a paper a couple of years ago in which I demonstrated that strategic voting makes the most popular candidates the most vulnerable.  There are no safe seats in Taiwan’s SNTV elections.)  If re-election is desirable and difficult, then it seems safe to assume legislators will respond to the re-election incentive in predictable ways.  (Hooray!)

	count	%
Did not run for re-election	276	26.7
Ran and lost	225	21.8
Ran and won	531	51.5
Total	1032	100.0

We can break down the data in other ways.  There are big differences between district and list legislators.  80.4% of legislators elected in districts ran for re-election, while only 50.4% of list legislators did.  However, there wasn’t much difference in their winning percentage, given the decision to enter the race.

	Didn’t run	Ran and lost	Ran and won	N
District legislators	19.6%	23.5%	56.9%	786
List legislators	49.6%	16.3%	34.1%	246

You might wonder about party differences.  Fantastic!  Here’s a breakdown by party affiliation (at the time of the original re-election.)

	Didn’t run	Ran and lost	Ran and won	N
KMT	26.4	15.5	58.1	458
DPP	28.4	24.7	46.9	373
NP	18.6	46.5	34.9	43
PFP	21.7	22.9	55.4	83
TSU	33.3	41.7	25.0	24
IND	29.4	25.5	45.1	51

It looks like politicians from all parties seek re-election at about the same rate, and they all have a strong possibility of losing, especially those from small parties.

But wait a minute, what about legislators who are elected as member of one party, don’t get re-nominated, and run as independents in the general election.  Don’t they lose at a higher rate?  Perhaps they are the ones driving these re-election rates down.  Ok, let’s consider people to be KMT only if they won the original election as a KMT member AND contested re-election as a KMT member.  (Since they have to have a party affiliation at time two, this rules out all the people who didn’t run for re-election.)

	Ran and lost	Ran and won	N
KMT	19.8	80.2	308
DPP	31.9	68.1	254
NP	50.0	50.0	30
PFP	30.0	70.0	40
TSU	50.0	50.0	12
IND	42.3	57.7	26
Changed parties	45.3	54.7	86

Party switchers don’t do well as expected, but after we get rid of them, KMT members still lose once in five times and DPP candidates lose once every three times.

Why are those DPP re-election rates so low?  One big reason is that we are including incumbents from the 6^th term who ran for re-election in the new mixed member system.  As we all know, the DPP was massacred in that election.  However, if we confine our data to the old SNTV/closed list system, the difference between the two big parties is not as marked.

	KMT		DPP
term	Ran, Won%	N	Ran, Won%	N
2nd	81.2	69	70.0	40
3rd	90.2	61	79.1	43
4th	60.8	74	88.2	51
5th	91.3	46	74.2	62
6th	84.5	58	34.5	58
Total	80.2	308	68.1	254

One of the most well-known lessons from the American context is that if you want to beat an incumbent, you had better do it the first time they come up for re-election.  After they win the first re-election, they are basically bulletproof.  That is not true here.

Number of terms served	Didn’t run	Ran and lost	Ran and won	N
1	26.0	21.0	53.0	523
2	26.0	24.9	49.1	281
3	29.6	20.8	49.6	125
4	34.0	22.0	44.0	50
5	16.0	16.0	68.0	25
6	30.8	23.1	46.2	13
7	28.6	14.3	57.1	7
8	50.0	0	50.0	4
9	0	0	100.0	2
10	50.0	0	50.0	2
total	26.7	21.8	51.5	1032

It is striking just how little this table changes as legislators gain seniority.  The number of cases decreases in an almost perfect pattern: each row has half the cases of the previous row.

The final thing I did was to look at people who switched districts.  For example Hong Qichang ran in Taichung City in 1992, the party list in 1995, Taipei City South in 1998, and the party list again in 2001, 2004, and 2007 (he originally was elected to the legislature in 1989 from Tainan City, but that isn’t in this data set).  So in my data set, the first three re-elections are coded as district changes while the last two are not.  Somewhat surprisingly to me, people who changed districts didn’t do a whole lot worse than people who stayed in the same place.

	Ran and lost	Ran and won	N
Same district	28.7	71.3	624
Changed districts	34.8	65.2	132
total	29.8	70.2	756

I don’t think this means that politicians can run anywhere and have about the same probability of winning.  Rather, legislators are very strategic about changing districts.  The ones who do actually change districts have good reason to believe they might find success in the new districts.  The ones who can’t foresee anything good happening from a change simply stay put.

All in all, this was a fun exercise for me.  More importantly, I managed to convince myself that the re-election motive should be very powerful in Taiwanese elections.  No matter how you cut the data, legislators want re-election and have difficulty in securing it.  If American legislators are, as Gary Jacobson famously put it, “running scared,” then Taiwanese legislators must be positively terrified by the possibility of losing.

---

[1] One prominent tradition in political science suggests that we can understand quite a lot about why legislators act the way they do if we assume that they are entirely motivated by re-election.

[2] The only group I have good data for on nomination contests is the DPP in the 6^th term.  Of the 39 DPP legislators who did not run for re-election in 2008, 10 sought a nomination but lost out in the telephone survey stage.

rumors

Lots of rumors are swirling around these days.  They are fun and frustrating at the same time.  I take them with a grain of salt, ready to disown them if they turn out to have no substance and equally ready to say “I already knew that” when they turn out to be correct.

So apparently former President Chen 陳水扁 announced that he will be running for the legislature.  Assuming that Lai Qingde 賴清德 wins the Tainan mayor election, Lai’s seat will become vacant and a by-election will be necessary.  Chen supposedly told someone that he would run for the seat.  Until his appeals are exhausted, Chen is legally not prohibited from running, and the seat is in Tainan, his home base.  On the other hand, no one has confirmed that Chen actually said or meant such a thing.  Also, my early handicapping is that Chen probably wouldn’t win.  The KMT is not that weak in this seat.  Lai won it by running ahead of the party list vote.  Former PFP legislator Gao Sibo 高思博 is primed to make another run at the seat.  Also, while Chen might get some sympathy votes from diehards, he would probably lose the swing voters who are disgusted with him.  This is the best case scenario, assuming that he either gets the DPP nomination or the DPP stands aside for him.  If he has to run against both a KMT and DPP candidate, forget it.  All in all, if Chen does choose to run, it will not end well for him.

The DPP is having major problems in Tainan, where both of the losers in the primary race are reportedly plotting to run in the general election.  Both Xu Tiancai 許添財 and Su Huanzhi 蘇煥智 have set of support organizations, a classic step one takes before running in an election.  (Perhaps the fact that they are only doing this now says something about why they lost the primary.)  Also, the TSU is reportedly interesting in offering one of them its nomination.  The TSU vehemently denies this and has accused the KMT of spreading vicious rumors.  I don’t know what to make of this except to note that Xu Tiancai has twice (1995, 1997) run against DPP nominees, so he has a track record.

Finally, mysterious polls say that the races in the north are tightening up.  Cai Yingwen 蔡英文 is only losing by five points, and Su Zhenchang 蘇貞昌 has actually overtaken Hao Longbin 郝龍斌, though none of the leads are statistically significant.  These results are being widely reported by the media so the polls must exist somewhere, but the interesting thing is that I cannot find either who did the polls or what the exact numbers are.  One story referred to KMT internal polls, but others mention “media” polls.  Until I see a source, I will take this with a grain of salt.

So we are to believe that the DPP is falling apart in Tainan, while the KMT’s lead is evaporating in the north.  If you combine this with recent events in Taichung, it seems that Kaohsiung City is the only race that is still going according to script.  …if you believe everything you hear, that is.

Update:  Sorry about that Kaohsiung thing.  I should have known better.  Yang Qiuxing 楊秋興 (loser of DPP primary) is now threatening to run as an independent in the general election.  So throw out the script altogether.

KMT Taichung CC nominations

From a few news stories on the internet, I have put together the results of the KMT’s telephone survey primary for nominations to the Taichung City Council.  I could not find the exact results; all I could find was who won and who lost.  However, one story reporting on the portion of the primary in the old Taichung City listed ranks for the winners (though not for the losers).

Also, a story on the portion in the old Taichung County provided the current jobs of many candidates.  This is interesting to me.  There is a pretty clear hierarchy of positions.  From best to worst, the ranking is township mayor, county assembly (ie: incumbent), speaker of township assembly, regular member of township assembly.

Finally, we are starting to get into the very bloody portion of the election.  Taipei City actually has more seats than before, while Xinbei City has the same number.  Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung all have a lot of incumbents chasing a small number of seats.  This is not as bad for the DPP, which has historically been underrepresented in these lower-level elections and therefore still has a little bit of space to grow.  However, it is a bloodbath for the KMT.  I count 14 incumbents who did not win nominations in Taichung.  I’m guessing that most of them will quit the KMT and run for re-election as independents

Why would KMT primary losers be less likely to respect survey results than DPP losers?  KMT politicians rely much more heavily on organization, which may or may not include vote buying.  This type of mobilization doesn’t affect the results of telephone surveys very much.  As such, losers can argue that there is a significant gap between these results and the likely results of a general election, when their organizations will come into play.

		spots	name	name	F	Current	Win
	Taichung
1	Dajia	3	姚應龍	Yao Yinglong		incumbent	Y
			林素真	Lin Suzhen	F	Incumbent	Y
			楊永昌	Yang Yongchang		Incumbent
			李鴻榮	Li Hongrong		incumbent	Y
.
2	Qingshui	3*	楊秋雲	Yang Qiuyun	F	incumbent	Y
			蘇麗華	Su Lihua			Y
			顏永滄	Yan Yongcang			Y
			尤璧鈴	You Biling	F	incumbent	?
.
3	Dadu	3*	林汝洲	Lin Ruzhou		Dadu mayor	Y
			吳瓊華	Wu Qionghua	F	Incumbent	Y
			楊忠諺	Yang Zhongyan		incumbent
			謝蒼海	Xie Canghai		Former Wuri mayor
			林士昌	Lin Shichang		incumbent	Y
			何端格	He Duange		incumbent
.
4	Fengyuan	4*	王朝坤	Wang Chaokun		Houli township assembly speaker	Y
			陳本添	Chen Bentian		Incumbent	Y
			張溢城	Zhang Yicheng		Incumbent	Y
			陳清龍	Chen Qinglong		Incumbent
			車淑娟	Che Shujuan	F	incumbent	Y
			劉重迪	Liu Chongdi		Fengyuan township assembly member
.
5	Tanzi	4*	張立傑	Zhang Lijie		Incumbent
			王永通	Wang Yongtong		incumbent
			吳顯森	Wu Xiansen		Daya mayor	Y
			王加佳	Wang Jiajia	F	Incumbent	Y
			羅永珍	Luo Yongzhen	F	Shengang mayor	Y
			何秀香	He Xiuxiang
			賴朝國	Lai Chaoguo		incumbent	Y
.
6	Xitun	3*	嚴榮發	Yan Rongfa
			留峰甫	Liu Fengfu
			黃馨慧	Huang Xinhui	F	Incumbent	Y(1)
			張廖乃倫	Zhang Liao Nailun	F	Incumbent	Y(3)
			吳春夏	Wu Chunxia		Incumbent
			楊正中	Yang Zhengzhong		incumbent	Y(2)
			陳富德	Chen Fude
.
7	Nantun	3*	丁振嘉	Ding Zhenjia		Incumbent	Y(3)
			劉士州	Liu Shizhou		Incumbent	Y(2)
			朱暖英	Zhu Nuanying	F		Y(1)
			陳三井	Chen Sanjing		Incumbent
			黃淑芬	Huang Shufen	F	incumbent
.
8	Beitun	4*	賴順仁	Lai Shunren		Incumbent	Y(4)
			陳成添	Chen Chentian		Incumbent	Y(2)
			唐國泰	Tang Guotai		Incumbent
			林永能	Lin Yongneng		Incumbent
			謝黎芳	Xie Lifang
			沈佑蓮	Shen Youlian	F	incumbent	Y(1)
			吳敏	Wu Min			Y(3)
.
9	North	2	陳天汶	Chen Tianwen		Incumbent	Y(1)
			陳有江	Chen Youjiang		Incumbent	Y(2)
			顏志修	Yan Zhixiu		incumbent
.
10	CW	2	柯貞竹	Ke Zhezhu
			洪嘉鴻	Hong Jiahong		Incumbent	Y(2)
			張宏年	Zhang Hongnian		incumbent	Y(1)
.
11	SE	3*	顏明毅	Yang Mingyi
			賴頤年	Lai Yinian		Incumbent	Y(1)
			林珮涵	Lin Peihan	F	Incumbent	Y(3)
			李中	Li Zhong		incumbent	Y(2)
.
12	Taiping	3*	李麗華	Li Lihua	F	Incumbent	Y
			詹敏豐	Zhan Minfeng		Incumbent	Y
			賴瑞珠	Lai Ruizhu	F	incumbent	Y
.
13	Dali	4*	戴萬福	Dai Wanfu		incumbent	Y
			蔡黃金雀	Cai Huang Jinque	F	Incumbent	Y
			蘇柏興	Su Boxing		Dali township assembly speaker	Y
			陳玉雪	Chen Yuxue	F	Incumbent
			林碧秀	Lin Bixiu	F	incumbent	Y
			曾瑞昌	Zeng Ruichang		Former Wufeng mayor
.
14	Dongshi	2	陳萬通	Chen Wantong		incumbent	Y
			蘇慶雲	Su Qingyun		Incumbent	Y
			冉齡軒	Ran Lingxuan	F	incumbent
.
15	PA
.
16	MA

* includes at least one female

Note: In D2, no survey was held, so apparently You Biling withdrew.

DPP city council nominations

The following are the results of the DPP’s primary process.  As explained in the previous post, the DPP used telephone surveys to determine its nominees in all contested elections.  The results of the telephone surveys are listed in the column labeled “poll.”  Before each district, I note how many seats there are in each district (m), how many people the DPP planned to nominate (nominate), and how many of these nominations are reserved for women.  In the table, I have each candidate’s name in Chinese and English, whether they are female, whether they qualified as a new candidate, whether they are an incumbent, their poll score, and whether they won a nomination.  The DPP considered any candidate as “new” who had never previously won public office (not including the extremely grassroots offices such as township assembly or village head).  New candidates were given a 10% bonus on their survey score.  This bonus is already figured into the numbers reported here.  The data on sex is incomplete.  I only know the gender of incumbents and nominees.  That is, if a candidate did not win a nomination this year and is not already an incumbent, lack of an “F” in the sex column does not necessarily mean that the candidate is a man.

As far as I can tell, only one person won a nomination due to the 10% bonus for new candidates (Qiu Tingwei, Xinbei 3).  Five women won due to the female reserve clause.  Note that this does not necessarily mean that they would not have been able to win without the clause.  For example, Yan Shengguan was the only woman in Taipei 5.  Since the DPP reserved a nomination for a woman in that district, Yan was guaranteed to win and did not need to expend any effort.  In fact, she very nearly won a nomination on the strength of her survey results.

Taipei City 1 (Shilin, Beitou)

m=12               nominate=open           Female=

Name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
莊瑞雄	Zhuang Ruixiong			Y		Y
吳思瑤	Wu Siyao	F		Y		Y
陳碧峰	Chen Bifeng			Y		Y
藍世聰	Lan Shicong					Y
陳正德	Chen Zhengde					Y
林世宗	Lin Shizong					Y
何志偉	He Zhiwei					Y

Taipei City 2 (Neihu, Nangang)

m=9                 nominate=4                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
江志銘	Jiang Zhiming		Y		.1967	Y
王孝維	Wang Xiaowei			Y	.1880	Y
高嘉瑜	Gao Jiayu	F	Y		.1763	Y
李建昌	Li Jianchang			Y	.1530	Y
許嘉恬	Xu Jiatian	F	Y		.1283
林明源	Lin Mingyuan		Y		.0950
陳秀惠	Chen Xiuhui				.0628

Taipei City 3 (Songshan, Xinyi)

m=10               nominate=5                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
張茂楠	Zhang Maonan			y	.2882	Y
洪健益	Hong Jianyi			Y	.2315	Y
許淑華	Xu Shuhua	F		y	.1932	Y
許家蓓	Xu Jiabei	F	Y		.1169	Y
陳淑華	Chen Shuhua	F			.1043	Y
葉問	Ye Wen		Y		.0300
陳泰源	Chen Taiyuan		Y		.0360

Taipei City 4 (Zhongshan, Datong)

m=10               nominate=5                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
簡余宴	Jian Yuyan	F		Y	.3188	Y
李文英	Li Wenying	F		Y	.1540	Y
王世堅	Wang Shijian				.1534	Y
黃向群	Huang Xiangqun			Y	.1282	Y
梁文傑	Liang Wenjie		Y		.0971	Y
蔡易餘	Cai Yiyu		Y		.0949
朱政騏	Zhu Zhengqi		Y		.0330
許界元	Xu Jieyuan		Y		.0208

Taipei City 5 (Wanhua, Zhongzheng)

m=8                 nominate=4                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
劉耀仁	Liu Yaoren			Y	.2362	Y
童仲彥	Tong Zhongyan		Y		.2267	Y
周威佑	Zhou Weiyou			Y	.1933	Y
陳嘉銘	Chen Jiaming			Y	.1628
顏聖冠	Yan Shengguan	F		Y	.1528	Y
周永鴻	Zhou Yonghong		Y		.0281

Note: Yan Shengguan won due to the female reserve clause.

Taipei City 6 (Da’an, Wenshan)

m=13               nominate=5                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
周柏雅	Zhou Boya			Y	.3372	Y
徐佳青	Xu Jiaqing	F		Y	.2272	Y
李慶鋒	Li Qingfeng			Y	.1258	Y
阮昭雄	Ruan Zhaoxiong		Y		.1154	Y
柯景昇	Ke Jingsheng				.0792	Y
江蓋世	Jiang Gaishi				.0690
林一方	Lin Yifang		Y		.0463

Xinbei City 1 (Danshui, Sanzhi, Shimen, Bali)

m=3                 nominate=1                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
呂子昌	Lu Zichang			Y		Y

Xinbei City 2 (Xinzhuang, Linkou, Taishan, Wugu)

m=10               nominate=5                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
張晉婷	Zhang Jinting	F	Y		.1806	Y
何淑峰	He Shufeng	F		Y	.1767	Y
賴秋媚	Lai Qiumei	F	Y		.1633	Y
陳科名	Chen Keming			Y	.1525	Y
陳文治	Chen Wenzhi			Y	.1476	Y
張嘉玲	Zhang Jialing		Y		.1270
陳明卿	Chen Mingqing		Y		.0524

Xinbei City 3 (Sanchong, Luzhou)

m=9                 nominate=6                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
李余典	Li Yudian				.1317	Y
李倩萍	Li Qianping	F		Y	.1246	Y
李坤城	Li Kuncheng		Y		.1233	Y
陳啟能	Chen Qi’neng			Y	.0957	Y
林克欣	Lin Kexin		Y		.0896	*
邱婷蔚	Qiu Tingwei	F	Y		.0836	Y
鄭金隆	Zheng Jinlong			Y	.0785	Y
李世東	Li Shidong		Y		.0779
林秋貴	Lin Qiugui		Y		.0712
黃秀玉	Huang Xiuyu		Y		.0643
李友親	Li Youqin			Y	.0595

Note: Li Kexin’s was denied the nomination due to suspicions of cheating.  The last nomination was awarded to Zheng Jinlong.

Note: Qiu Tingwei originally won due to the 10% bonus for new candidates. After the Li Kexin case was settled, she won her spot over Li Shidong, also a new candidate.

Xinbei City 4 (Banqiao)

m=9                 nominate=5                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
王淑慧	Wang Shuhui	F			.2234	Y
張宏陸	Zhang Honglu		Y		.1607	Y
林水山	Lin Shuishan		Y		.0998	Y
黃俊哲	Huang Junzhe			Y	.0972	Y
李婉鈺	Li Wanyu	F	Y		.0952	Y
王月明	Wang Yueming	F		Y	.0818
盧輝煌	Lu Huihuang		Y		.0617
石一佑	Shi Yiyou		Y		.0478
黃炳煌	Huang Binghuang		Y		.0473
詹加鴻	Zhan Jiahong		Y		.0421
許弘業	Xu Hongye		Y		.0267
廖林麗玲	Liao Lin Liling		Y		.0162

Xinbei City 5 (Zhonghe)

m=7                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	Name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
林秀惠	Lin Xiuhui	F		Y		Y
張瑞山	Zhang Ruishan			Y		Y
江永昌	Jiang Yongchang			Y		*

Note: Jiang is technically only “permitted” (報備) to run rather than nominated.  Legally, this makes no difference.  The DPP is probably doing this to circumvent rules about how long you must be a party member before getting a nomination.

Xinbei City 6 (Yonghe)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
廖筱清	Liao Xiaoqing	F		Y		Y
許昭興	Xu Zhaoxing	F				Y

Xinbei City 7 (Sanxia, Yingge, Tucheng, Shulin)

m=10               nominate=6                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
吳琪銘	Wu Qiming			Y	.1976	Y
陳世榮	Chen Shirong				.1708	Y
林銘仁	Lin Mingren			Y	.1555	Y
歐金獅	Ou Jinshi			Y	.1313	Y
彭成龍	Peng Chenglong		Y		.1241	Y
曾進益	Zeng Jinyi		Y		.1188
高敏慧	Gao Minhui	F		Y	.1021	Y

Note: Gao Minhui won due to the female reserve clause.

Xinbei City 8 (Xindian, Shenkeng, Shiding, Pinglin, Wulai)

m=5                 nominate=2                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
陳永福	Chen Yongfu			Y	.6638	Y
李新芳	Li Xinfang	F		Y	.1767	Y
吳春美	Wu Chunmei		Y		.1595

Xinbei City 9 (Ruifang, Pingxi, Shuangxi, Gongliao)

m=1                 nominate=1                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
顏世雄	Yan Shixiong					Y

Xinbei City 10 (Xizhi, Jinshan, Wanli)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
周雅玲	Zhou Yaling	F		Y		Y
沈發惠	Shen Fahui					Y

Taichung City 1 (Dajia, Daan, Waipu)

m=3                 nominate=1                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
吳敏濟	Wu Minji		Y		.4699	Y
易錦隆	Yi Jinlong		Y		.4160
陳献宗	Chen Xianzong		Y		.1141

Taichung City 2 (Qingshui, Shalu, Wuqi)

m=5                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
王立任	Wang Liren					Y
楊典忠	Yang Dianzhong					Y

Taichung City 3 (Wuri, Dadu, Longjing)

m=5                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
陳世凱	Chen Shikai					Y
劉淑蘭	Liu Shulan	F		Y		Y

Taichung City 4 (Fengyuan, Houli)

m=5                 nominate=3                 Female=

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
吳富亭	Wu Futing			Y		Y
翁美春	Weng Meichun	F		Y		Y
謝志忠	Xie Zhizhong			Y		Y

Taichung City 5 (Tanzi, Daya, Shengang)

m=6                 nominate=3                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
林竹旺	Lin Zhuwang			Y		Y
許水彬	Xu Shuibin			Y		Y
廖述鎮	Liao Shuzhen			Y		Y

Taichung City 6 (Xitun)

m=5                 nominate=2                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
陳淑華	Chen Shuhua	F		Y		Y
張廖萬堅	Zhang Liao Wanjian			Y		Y

Taichung City 7 (Nantun)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
張耀中	Zhang Yaozhong			Y		Y
何文海	He Wenhai					Y

Taichung City 8 (Betun)

m=6                 nominate=3                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
曾朝榮	Zeng Chaorong			Y		Y
王岳彬	Wang Yuebin			Y		Y
蔡雅玲	Cai Yaling	F		Y		Y

Taichung City 9 (North)

m=3                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
范淞育	Fan Songyu			Y	.4698	Y
賴佳微	Lai Jiawei	F		Y	.4169	Y
游金隆	You Jinlong		Y		.1133

Taichung City 10 (Central, West)

m=3                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
黃國書	Huang Guoshu			Y	.6160	Y
江正吉	Jiang Zhengji				.2500	Y
王世勛	Wang Shixun				.1340

Taichung City 11 (East, South)

m=4                 nominate=3                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
何敏誠	He Mincheng			Y	.3719	Y
鄭功進	Zheng Gongjin			Y	.2270	Y
陳福文	Chen Fuwen			Y	.2145
邱素貞	Qiu Suzhen	Y		Y	.1866	Y

Note: Qiu Suzhen won due to the female reserve clause.

Taichung City 12 (Taiping)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
何明杰	He Mingjie			Y		Y
黃秀珠	Huang Xiuzhu	F		Y		Y

Taichung City 13 (Dali, Wufeng)

m=6                 nominate=3                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
何欣純	He Xinchun	F		Y	.4443	Y
劉錦和	Liu Jinhe				.2832	Y
李天生	Li Tiansheng			Y	.2087	Y
林明正	Lin Mingzheng				.0638

Taichung City 14 (Dongshi, Shigang, Xinshe, Heping)

m=2                 nominate=1                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	Poll	win
蔡成圭	Cai Chengui			Y		Y

Tainan City 1 (Baihe, Houbi, Dongshan)

m=2                 nominate=1                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
賴美惠	Lai Meihui	F		Y		Y

Tainan City 2 (Yanshui, Xinying, Liuying)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
李退之	Li Tuizhi		Y		.3159	Y
賴惠員	Lai Huiyuan	F	Y		.3020	Y
趙昆原	Zhao Kunyuan			Y	.2842
陳芝伶	Chen Zhiling		Y		.0980

Tainan City 3 (Beimen, Xuejia, Jiangjun)

m=2                 nominate=1                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
侯澄財	Hou Chengcai			Y	.7491	Y
郭再欽	Guo Zaiqin		Y		.2509

Tainan City 4 (Xiaying, Liujia, Madou, Guantian)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
陳文賢	Chen Wenxian			Y	.5251	Y
楊麗玉	Yang Liyu	F		Y	.2994	Y
邱健吾	Qiu Jianwu		Y		.1755

Tainan City 5 (Jiali, Xigang, Qigu)

m=3                 nominate=3                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
蔡蘇秋金	Su Cai Qiujin	F				Y
陳朝來	Chen Chaolai			Y		Y
蔡秋蘭	Cai Qiulan	F		Y		Y

Tainan City 6 (Shanhua, Anding)

m=2                 nominate=1                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
樑順發				Y		Y

Tainan City 7 (Danei, Shanshang, Xinhua)

m=2                 nominate=1                 Female=0

Name	Name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
林志聰	Lin Zhicong		Y		.6735	Y
王俊仁	Wang Junren		Y		.3265

Tainan City 8 (Yujing, Nanxi, Nanhua, Zuozhen)

m=1                 nominate=1                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
王俊潭	Wang Juntan					Y

Tainan City 9 (Xinshi, Yongkang)

m=7                 nominate=3                 Female=1

name	Name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
林宜瑾	Lin Yijin	F		Y	.3109	Y
陳秋萍	Chen Qiuping	F		Y	.2588	Y
郭國文	Guo Guowen		Y		.2526	Y
蘇泓文	Su Hongwen		Y		.1019
李國璧	Li Guobi		Y		.0560
李建志	Li Jianzhi		Y		.0198

Tainan City 10 (Annan)

m=5                 nominate=4                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
郭信良	Guo Xinliang			Y	.3559	Y
王錦德	Wang Jinde		Y		.1998	Y
郭清華	Guo Qinghua			Y	.1616	Y
涂韶芳	Tu Shaofang	F		Y	.0934	Y
劉益昌	Liu Yichang			Y	.0883
唐儀靜	Tang Yijing	F		Y	.0656
黃永田	Huang Yongtian		Y		.0353

Tainan City 11 (North)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=1

name	Name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
陳怡珍	Chen Yizhen	F	Y		.4633	Y
唐碧娥	Tang Bi’e	F			.2696	Y
陳宗彥	Chen Zongyan			Y	.2141
吳杰	Wu Jie		Y		.0530

Tainan City 12 (Central-West)

m=2                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
邱莉莉	Qiu Lili	F		Y		Y
林俊憲	Lin Junxian			Y

Note: Lin Junxian agreed to withdraw after the telephone surveys were held.

Tainan City 13 (Anping)

m=2                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
李文正	Li Wenzheng			Y		Y
翁朝正	Weng Chaozheng					Y

Tainan City 14 (East)

m=6                 nominate=3                 Female=1

name	Name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
王定宇	Wang Dingyu			Y	.4709	Y
蔡旺詮	Cai Wangquan			Y	.2149	Y
陸美祈	Lu Meiqi	F	Y		.1696	Y
郭朝武	Guo Chaowu				.0890
蔡麗青	Cai Liqing		Y		.0557

Tainan City 15 (South)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
莊玉珠	Zhuang Yuzhu	F		Y	.4949	Y
陳進益	Chen Jinyi			Y	.3015	Y
杜媽政	Du Mazheng		Y		.2036

Tainan City 16 (Rende, Guiren, Guanmiao, Longqi)

m=5                 nominate=3                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
王雅雲	Wang Yayun	F		Y		Y
陳文清	Chen Wenqing					Y
劉正昌	Liu Zhengchang			Y		Y

Kaohsiung City 1

(Taoyuan, Namaxia, Jiaxian, Liugui, Shanlin, Neimen, Qishan, Meinong, Maolin)

m=3                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
林富寶	Lin Fubao			Y	.4686	Y
蕭育穎	Xiao Yuying	F		Y	.2993	Y
鍾盛有	Zhong Shengyou			Y	.2321

Kaohsiung City 2 (Jiading, Hu’nei, Luzhu, Alian, Tianliao)

m=4                 nominate=3                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
張文瑞	Zhang Wenrui			Y	.3099	Y
陳明澤	Chen Mingze			Y	.2922	Y
黃炎森	Huang Yansen				.2333
葉香	Ye Xiang	F			.0906	Y
鄭顯達	Zheng Xianda		Y		.0739

Note: Ye Xian won due to the female reserve clause.

Kaohsiung City 3 (Yong’an, Gangshan, Yanchao, Mituo, Ziguan, Qiaotou)

m=5                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
陳政聞	Chen Zhengwen		Y		.4049	Y
翁瑞珠	Weng Ruizhu	F	Y		.3214	Y
謝志富	Xie Zhifu			Y	.2737

Kaohsiung City 4 (Nanzi, Zuoying)

m=8                 nominate=3                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
林瑩蓉	Lin Yingrong	F		Y	.4852	Y
黃昭星	Huang Zhaoxing			Y	.2413	Y
張豐藤	Zhang Fengteng		Y		.1711	Y
許仁圖	Xu Rentu		Y		.1023

Kaohsiung City 5 (Dashe, Renwu, Niaosong, Dashu)

m=4                 nominate=3                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
張勝富	Zhang Shengfu				.3524	Y
錢聖武	Qian Shengwu			Y	.2990	Y
曾欽宏	Zeng Qinhong		Y		.2411
林芳如	Lin Fangru	F	Y		.1075	Y

Note: Lin Fangru won due to the female reserve clause.

Kaohsiung City 6 (Yancheng, Gushan, Qijin)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
李喬如	Li Qiaoru	F		Y		Y
連文堅	Lian Wenjian			Y		Y

Kaohsiung City 7 (Sanmin)

m=8                 nominate=4                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
洪平朗	Hong Pinglang			Y	.1865	Y
康裕成	Kang Yucheng	F		Y	.1746	Y
林進興	Lin Jinxing				.1702
林武忠	Lin Wuzhong			Y	.1593	Y
黃淑美	Huang Shumei	F		Y	.1209	Y
潘金英	Pan Jinying		Y		.1166
李帝慶	Li Diqing		Y		.0431
劉彥賢	Liu Yanxian				.0288

Note: Lin Jinxing agreed to withdraw after the telephone surveys were held.

Kaohsiung City 8 (Qianjin, Xinxing, Lingya)

m=6                 nominate=3                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
郭建盟	Guo Jianmeng				.2794	Y
周玲妏	Zhou Lingwen	F		Y	.2185	Y
蕭永達	Xiao Yongda			Y	.1876	Y
李文良	Li Wenliang			Y	.1817
湯東穎	Tang Dongying		Y		.1328

Kaohsiung City 9 (Fengshan)

m=8                 nominate=3                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
張漢忠	Zhang Hanzhong			Y		Y
陳慧文	Chen Huiwen	F		Y		Y
顏曉菁	Yan Xiaojing	F		Y		Y

Kaohsiung City 10 (Qianzhen, Xiaogang)

m=8                 nominate=4                 Female=1

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
吳銘賜	Wu Mingsi			Y		Y
鄭光峰	Zheng Guangfeng			Y		Y
李宛蓉	Li Wanrong	F		Y		Y
陳信瑜	Chen Xinyu	F		Y		Y

Kaohsiung City 11 (Daliao, Linyuan)

m=4                 nominate=2                 Female=0

name	name	Fem	New	Inc	poll	win
韓賜村	Han Sicun				.4111	Y
蔡昌達	Cai Changda			Y	.3536	Y
洪村銘	Hong Cunming		Y		.2354

DPP City Council telephone survey procedures

The DPP is determining its nominations for this year’s city council elections by telephone surveys.  This is, to my knowledge, unique worldwide.  Here in Taiwan, the KMT sometimes claims to also use surveys, but they have not institutionalized their procedures to the extent that the DPP has, and the KMT always reserves (and occasionally employs) the right to ignore the surveys and do something else.  As such, I view the KMT’s surveys as simply playing an advisory role.  Lots of parties around the world do this.  In contrast, the DPP takes its survey results as binding.  If you win the survey, you win the nomination.

This is interesting in and of itself, but there is more.  The electoral system the DPP uses in its surveys is quite esoteric.  Taiwan’s multimember districts use the SNTV system, but the DPP surveys use something just a little different.  In fact, I’m not quite sure exactly how to classify this system.

Here are the important rules.  There are two conditions, and each uses a different set of rules.  If there is only one nomination or if there are three or fewer candidates, survey respondents will only be allowed to express support for one candidate.  (OK, this part is easy to understand: it’s just a simple survey and plurality wins.)  If there are four or more candidate contesting two or more nominations the following rules will be used.

1. Each respondent is asked for his first and second preference.  The first preference is given 2 points, and the second preference is given 1 point.
2. If, when asked for his first preference, the respondent insists that he cannot differentiate between his two top choices, each will be given 1.5 points.  If the respondent cannot differentiate among three or more choices, his answer is coded as “don’t know” and no one is given any points.
3. If, when asked for his second preference, the respondent cannot give a clear answer, refuses to choose another candidate, or indicates that he only supports his first choice, the first preference is given 3 points.

The DPP does three separate surveys with at least a sample size of 1068 for each race.  The results of each survey are averaged and calculated out to the fourth decimal place to get the final result.  (Note: in previous elections, the DPP required a sample size of 3000.  They also have used a filter question in the past to disqualify respondents who support the KMT.)

The source for this is this document:

http://www.dpp.org.tw/upload/history/20100604113242_link.pdf

I am looking primarily at pp 20-25, 43-49.

So each respondent has three votes that he can cast in the following ways:

1. A: 3
2. A: 2, B: 1
3. A: 1.5, B: 1.5

Since it is impossible to cast any number other than three total votes, we could normalize the three votes to one vote, which is what the DPP does when they report the results.

This fits somewhere in the family of limited votes.  To review, the limited vote has districts with m seats, where m≧1, and each voter casts somewhere between 1 and m-1 votes.  The top m vote-getters win the seat.  Standard plurality elections are part of this family.  M=1, and each voter casts one vote.  SNTV is also part of this family.  M>1, and each voter casts exactly one vote.  However, here we have a case of voters casting more than one vote, and they can either spread their support among two candidates or concentrate it on one candidate.

I think this counts as limited vote with cumulation, except that cumulation is required, not simply allowed.  You are not allowed to give one vote to three separate candidates.

Research on limited vote systems is very sparse (except for the SMP and SNTV variants).  I need to go and look up the article, but I think I remember reading about a limited vote system for the London city council in the Victorian era.  The upshot was that everyone cumulated their votes on the local candidate, so the election essentially turned into SNTV.  That is what candidates in Taiwan seem to be trying to do.  Every banner, ad, and billboard asks people to express exclusive support for them.  However, I’m dying to know if this is actually what happens.  Are there successful candidates who get large shares of their support from second preferences?  Is there any pattern to whether a voter splits his support or not?

Another interesting question about these surveys has to do with sampling error.  In short, there is no concession made to sampling error.  If A gets a higher score than B, then A beats B no matter how small the difference is.  This, of course, is just the type of thing that drives statisticians crazy.  To simplify, the sampling error for a survey is roughly 1/Ön, where n is the sample size.  Each survey has a sample size of n=1068, so the error for each survey is .03, or 3%.  So when you do one survey, you get one answer.  If you do the same survey 1000 more times, you’ll get 1000 more answers, all slightly different.  However, 950 of those answers should be within 3% of the actual value in the population (which is what we are trying to measure).

Remember, however, that in these multimember districts, 10% or 15% support can often win the last spot.  If one person gets 13% (or more accurately, somewhere between 10% and 16%) while another gets 12% (really 9%-15%), you simply can’t be sure that the former is really stronger than the latter.  Doing three surveys helps a bit, but the answer isn’t three times better.  The error is roughly 1/Ö3204, or 1.77%.  There are going to be lots of instances in which the difference between the last winner and the first loser is more than twice that, which is roughly what it would take to say that the former is more popular than the latter in a statistical sense.  I haven’t looked at it, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the last winner and first loser were not statistically significantly different in a majority of races.  However, the DPP makes no allowance for this.  If you get a lower value, you lose.

(Note: In previous elections, the DPP required each survey to have a sample size of at least n=3000.  1/Ö9000 is 1.05%.  Better, but still not necessarily conclusive.  And very expensive.)

Of course, you now expect me to conclude that the DPP’s system is unreasonable.  Nope.  The purpose of a primary system is not to choose the most popular candidates.  It is to persuade the losers to stand down so that the party can succeed in the general election.  Think about this from the loser’s perspective.  There was a fair criterion that was well understood in advance.  The loser might not be less popular than the winner, but there is very little reason to believe that he is more popular.  Moreover, in the general election, the party nominees will enjoy the benefits of the party label.  If the loser ran as an independent, he would probably lose much of his support (since most of his supporters are also DPP supporters and would want to vote for a DPP candidate).  In other words, if you couldn’t win the primary, chances are pretty dim that you might be able to win the general election, even if you think you really had more support in the general population than the winner and just got an unlucky sample.  If the losers stand down, then this system works.

(Yes, I will be paying attention to what happens next.  This is one of the reasons that I’m so excited to get data on people contesting the nominations.)

KMT city council nomination contestants

This table lists people contesting KMT nominations. It includes an indication if I know they are female.  Lack of a “F” does not necessarily mean that they are male.  It also includes whether they are an incumbent, and whether or not they actually won the nomination.  Since the gender information comes almost entirely from the CEC databank on previous elections, I generally can only determine the gender of incumbents.  Obviously, this table is currently incomplete, and I will update it as I get more info.

Sources: Tainan: China Times June 1; Taichung: document dated May 20 on KMT Taichung party branch website; Xinbei: Liberty Times June 1; Taipei: document dated June 1 on KMT Taipei party branch website; Kaohsiung: story on www.chinareviewnews.com dated June 1.

		spots	name	name	F	Inc.	Win
D#	Taipei
1	Shilin	4	吳碧珠	Wu Bizhu	F	Y
			陳重文	Chen Chongwen
			賴素如	Lai Suru	F	Y
			曾文培	Zeng Wenpei
			黃平洋	Huang Pingyang
			汪志冰	Wang Zhibing		Y
			陳壽彭	Chen Shoupeng
			許博	Xu Bo
.
2	Neihu	5	陳義洲	Chen Yizhou		Y
			黃子哲	Huang Zizhe
			李彦秀	Li Yanxiu	F	Y
			侯衍泰	Hou Yantai
			闕枚莎	Que Meisha	F	Y
			吳世正	Wu Shizheng		Y
.
3	Songshan	6	秦慧珠	Qin Huizhu	F
			王正德	Wang Zhengde		Y
			黃幼中	Huang Youzhong
			楊實秋	Yang Shiqiu		Y
			王志堅	Wang Zhijian
			陳永德	Chen Yongde		Y
			陳孋輝	Chen Lihui	F	Y
			戴錫欽	Dai Xiqin		Y
.
4	Datong	4	陳玉梅	Chen Yumei	F	Y
			葉林傳	Ye Linchuan
			林晉章	Lin Jinzhang		Y
			李孟奎	Li Mengkui
			王浩	Wang Hao		Y
.
5	Wanhua	4	王碧華	Wang Bihua
			吳志剛	Wu Zhigang		Y
			郭昭巖	Guo Zhaoyan	F
			游文玫	You Wenmei
			鍾小平	Zhong Xiaoping
			殷維雄	Yin Weixiong
			應曉薇	Ying Xiaowei
			楊華	Yang Hua
.
6	Da’an	8	厲耿桂芳	Li Geng Guifang	F	Y
			林慶隆	Lin Qinglong
			秦儷舫	Qin Lifang	F	Y
			歐陽龍	Ouyang Long		Y
			李慶元	Li Qingyuan		Y
			彭佳厚	Peng Jiahou
			李新	Li Xin		Y
			陳錦祥	Chen Jinxiang		Y
			王欣儀	Wang Xinyi
			林奕華	Lin Yihua	F	Y
			趙世聰	Zhao Shicong
			葉元	Ye Yuan
.
7	PA	1	李芳儒	Li Fangru
.
8	MA	1	李傅中武	Li Fu Zhongwu
			黃孝文	Huang Xiaowen
			黃主恩	Huang Zhuwen
			古拉斯˙達那哈	Gulasi Danaha
.
	Xinbei
1	Danshui		鄭戴麗香	Zheng Dai Lixiang	F	Y
			陳世儀	Chen Shiyi
			李文德	Li Wende		Y
.
2	Xinzhuang		陳明義	Chen Mingyi		Y
			蔡健棠	Cai Jiantang
			吳原豪	Wu Yuanhao
			黃林玲玲	Huang Lin Lingling	F	Y
			李國書	Li Guoshu		Y
			江根煌	Jiang Genhuang
			劉新龍	Liu Xinlong		Y
			黃厚經	Huang Houjing
			蔡淑君	Cai Shujun	F	Y
			宋明宗	Song Mingzong
.
3	Sanchong	6	胡淑蓉	Hu Shurong	F	Y
			陳幸進	Chen Xingjin		Y
			鄭世維	Zheng Shiwei		Y
			黃桂蘭	Huang Guilan	F	Y
			許秋蘭	Xu Qiulan
			蔡明堂	Cai Mingtang		Y
.
4	Banqiao		劉美芳	Liu Meifang
			曾煥嘉	Zeng Huanjia
			陳素玲	Chen Suling
			趙燕昭	Zhao Yanzhao		Y
			林國春	Lin Guochun		Y
			張宏銘	Zhang Hongming
			周勝考	Zhou Shengkao		Y
.
5	Zhonghe		陳錦錠	Chen Jinding	F	Y
			楊宗翰	Yang Zonghan
			許進勝	Xu Jinsheng
			游輝廷	You Huiting		Y
			邱烽堯	Qiu Fengyao
			簡文劉	Jian Wenliu		Y
			金瑞龍	Jin Ruilong
.
6	Yonghe		陳鴻源	Chen Hongyuan		Y
			劉君驥	Liu Junji
			連斐璠	Lian Feifan	F	Y
			金介壽	Jin Jieshou		Y
.
7	Tucheng		王金芬	Wang Jinfen
			吳麗香	Wu Lixiang
			周文美	Zhou Wenmei
			蘇俊龍	Su Junlong
			王明麗	Wang Mingli
			蔡黃龍	Cai Huanglong		Y
			洪佳君	Hong Jiajun	F	Y
			何玉枝	He Yuzhi
			鄭綉瑛	Zheng Xiuying	F	Y
			黃永昌	Huang Yongchang		Y
.
8	Xindian		曾正和	Zeng Zhenghe		Y
			許正鴻	Xu Zhenghong
			高世輝	Gao Shihui
			劉哲彰	Liu Zhezhang
			王至芬	Wang Zhifen
			陳儀君	Chen Yijun
.
9	Ruifang	0
.
10	Xizhi	4	黃建清	Huang Jianqing
			唐有吉	Tang Youji		Y
			白珮茹	Bai Peiru	F	Y
			廖正良	Liao Zhengliang		Y
.
11	PA	0
.
12	MA	0
.
	Taichung
1	Dajia	3	姚應龍	Yao Yinglong		Y
			林素真	Lin Suzhen	F	Y
			楊永昌	Yang Yongchang		Y
			李鴻榮	Li Hongrong		Y
.
2	Qingshui	3*	楊秋雲	Yang Qiuyun	F	Y
			蘇麗華	Su Lihua
			顏永滄	Yan Yongcang
			尤璧鈴	You Biling	F	Y
.
3	Dadu	3*	林汝洲	Lin Ruzhou
			吳瓊華	Wu Qionghua	F	Y
			楊忠諺	Yang Zhongyan		Y
			謝蒼海	Xie Canghai
			林士昌	Lin Shichang		Y
			何端格	He Duange		Y
.
4	Fengyuan	4*	王朝坤	Wang Chaokun
			陳本添	Chen Bentian		Y
			張溢城	Zhang Yicheng		Y
			陳清龍	Chen Qinglong		Y
			車淑娟	Che Shujuan	F	Y
			劉重迪	Liu Chongdi
.
5	Tanzi	4*	張立傑	Zhang Lijie		Y
			王永通	Wang Yongtong		Y
			吳顯森	Wu Xiansen
			王加佳	Wang Jiajia	F	Y
			羅永珍	Luo Yongzhen	F	Y
			何秀香	He Xiuxiang
			賴朝國	Lai Chaoguo		Y
.
6	Xitun	3*	嚴榮發	Yan Rongfa
			留峰甫	Liu Fengfu
			黃馨慧	Huang Xinhui	F	Y
			張廖乃倫	Zhang Liao Nailun	F	Y
			吳春夏	Wu Chunxia		Y
			楊正中	Yang Zhengzhong		Y
			陳富德	Chen Fude
.
7	Nantun	3*	丁振嘉	Ding Zhenjia		Y
			劉士州	Liu Shizhou		Y
			朱暖英	Zhu Nuanying
			陳三井	Chen Sanjing		Y
			黃淑芬	Huang Shufen	F	Y
.
8	Beitun	4*	賴順仁	Lai Shunren		Y
			陳成添	Chen Chentian		Y
			唐國泰	Tang Guotai		Y
			林永能	Lin Yongneng		Y
			謝黎芳	Xie Lifang
			沈佑蓮	Shen Youlian	F	Y
			吳敏	Wu Min
.
9	North	2	陳天汶	Chen Tianwen		Y
			陳有江	Chen Youjiang		Y
			顏志修	Yan Zhixiu		Y
.
10	CW	2	柯貞竹	Ke Zhezhu
			洪嘉鴻	Hong Jiahong		Y
			張宏年	Zhang Hongnian		Y
.
11	SE	3*	顏明毅	Yang Mingyi
			賴頤年	Lai Yinian		Y
			林珮涵	Lin Peihan	F	Y
			李中	Li Zhong		Y
.
12	Taiping	3*	李麗華	Li Lihua	F	Y
			詹敏豐	Zhan Minfeng		Y
			賴瑞珠	Lai Ruizhu	F	Y
.
13	Dali	4*	戴萬福	Dai Wanfu		Y
			蔡黃金雀	Cai Huang Jinque	F	Y
			蘇柏興	Su Boxing
			陳玉雪	Chen Yuxue	F	Y
			林碧秀	Lin Bixiu	F	Y
			曾瑞昌	Zeng Ruichang
.
14	Dongshi	2	陳萬通	Chen Wantong		Y
			蘇慶雲	Su Qingyun		Y
			冉齡軒	Ran Lingxuan	F	Y
.
15	PA
.
16	MA
.
	Tainan
1	Baihe		黃月娟	Huang Yuejuan	F	Y
			張世賢	Zhang Shixian		Y
.
2	Xinying		蔡育輝	Cai Yuhui		Y
			黃金鏞	Huang Jinyong		Y
			劉桂妙	Liu Guimiao	F	Y
.
3	Xuejia		陳宗興	Chen Zongxing		Y
.
4	Madou		王振宇	Wang Zhenyu
			謝總茹	Xie Zongru
			尤榮智	You Rongzhi		Y
.
5	Jiali		余榮和	Yu Ronghe		Y
			方一峰	Fang Yifeng		Y
.
6	Shanhua		胡瑞男	Hu Ruinan		Y
			李文俊	Li Wenjun
.
7	Xinhua		吳德強	Wu Deqiang
.
8	Yujing		葉枝成	Ye Zhicheng
			江仲祥	Jiang Zhongxiang		Y
.
9	Yongkang		李崇智	Li Chongzhi		Y
			林燕祝	Lin Yanzhu
			王敏星	Wang Minxing		Y
			郭瑞南	Guo Ruinan		Y
			周獻珍	Zhou Xianzhen
			李坤煌	Li Kunhuang
			康進水	Kang Jinshui		Y
.
10	Annan		李中岺	Li Zhongling
			黃復源	Huang Fuyuan
			陳進義	Chen Jinyi
			黃麗招	Huang Lizhao	F	Y
.
11	North		許至椿	Xu Zhichun		Y
			李錦泉	Li Jinquan		Y
			翁若珊	Weng Ruoshan
			謝龍介	Xie Longjie		Y
.
12	C-W
.
13	Anping		馬崇喜	Ma Chongxi		Y
			盧崑福	Lu Kunfu		Y
.
14	East		陳文科	Chen Wenke		Y
			許木樹	Xu Mushu		Y
			李建平	Li Jianping		Y
			王家貞	Wang Jiazhen	F	Y
			曾培雅	Zeng Peiya	F	Y
.
15	South		郭和元	Guo Heyuan		Y
			蔡淑惠	Huang Shuhui
			林美燕	Lin Meiyan	F	Y
16	Rende		黃明進	Huang Mingjin		Y
.
17	PA
.
18	MA		李志宏	Li Zhihong
			許玉美	Xu Yumei
.
	Kaohsiung
1	Meinong	2	李鴻鈞	Li Hongjun		Y
			林洪愛玉	Lin Hong Aiyu	F	Y
			林義迪	Lin Yidi
.
2	Luzhu	3*	程啟龍	Cheng Qilong
			蘇綺莉	Su Qili	F	Y
			李長生	Li Changsheng		Y
.
3	Gangshan	5*	許福森	Xu Fusen		Y
			盧謝珊珊	Lu Xie Shanshan	F	Y
			方信淵	Fang Xinyuan		Y
			曾水文	Zeng Shuiwen		Y
			陸淑美	Lu Shumei	F	Y
.
4	Zuoying	5*	戴德銘	Dai Deming		Y
			陳麗珍	Chen Lizhen	F	Y
			藍星木	Lan Xingmu		Y
			周鍾淡	Zhou Zhongdan		Y
			李眉蓁	Li Meiqin
			莊蕙貞	Zhuang Huizhen
			陳玫娟	Chen Meijuan	F	Y
.
5	Dashu	3*	吳文耀	Wu Wenyao		Y
			許慧玉	Xu Huiyu	F	Y
			何堅心	He Jianxin
			吳利成	Wu Licheng		Y
.
6	Gushan	2*	陳漢昇	Chen Hansheng		Y
			蔡金晏	Cai Jinyan
			陳美雅	Chen Meiya	F	Y
.
7	Sanmin	5*	黃柏霖	Huang Bolin		Y
			曾俊傑	Zeng Junjie		Y
			黃添財	Huang Tiancai		Y
			梅再興	Mei Zaixing		Y
			童燕珍	Tong Yanzhen	F	Y
.
8	Lingya	3*	莊啟旺	Zhuang Qiwang		Y
			王齡嬌	Wang Linjiao	F	Y
			許崑源	Xu Kunyuan		Y
.
9	Fengshan	4*	劉德林	Liu Delin		Y
			李鋒斌	Li Fengbin		Y
			李雅靜	Li Yajing
			陳粹鑾	Chen Cuiluan	F	Y
			郭素桃	Guo Sutao	F	Y
			徐榮延	Xu Rongyan		Y
.
10	Xiaogang	4*	蔡武宏	Cai Wuhong
			林國正	Lin Guozheng		Y
			曾麗燕	Zeng Liyan	F	Y
			朱挺玗	Zhu Tingyu	F	Y
			鄭復華	Zheng Fuhua
			陳麗娜	Chen Li’na	F	Y
.
11	Daliao	4*	孫祈政	Sun Qizheng		Y
			于淑恩	Yu Shu’en		Y
			王耀裕	Wang Yaoyu		Y
			黃天煌	Huang Tianhuang
			李雨庭	Li Yuting
			洪秀錦	Hong Xiujin	F	Y
.
12	PA	1	詹金福	Zhan Jinfu
.
13	MA: Namaxia	Open
.
14	MA: Taoyuan	Open
.
15	MA: Maolin	Open

* includes at least one female

Note: An article in Liberty Times (June 2) states that the KMT plans to nominate 42 candidates in 9 districts in Xinbei City.  They will not nominate anyone in D9 or the two aboriginal districts.

Municipal Council seats and nomination plans

I’m planning to put a lot of info about the city council elections on this blog.  I might not always comment on that info.  Mostly I’m just trying to put a lot of info in one place so that I will be able to find it when I look for it in the future.  If someone else wants to know these things, so much the better.

The following table includes the 2010 city council districts and how many seats will be elected from each.  If I understand the Election and Recall Law correctly, one seat in every four is guaranteed to go to a female.  That is, if there are 4-7 seats, at least one of the winners must be a woman; if there are 8-11 seats, at least two winners must be women; and so on.

			seats
D#	台北市	Taipei City	63
1	北投士林	Shilin, Beitou	12
2	南港內湖	Nangang, Neihu	9
3	信義松山	Xinyi, Songshan	10
4	大同中山	Datong, Zhongshan	8
5	萬華中正	Wanhua, Zhongzheng	8
6	大安文山	Da’an, Wenshan	13
7	平地原住民	Plains Aborigines	1
8	山地原住民	Mountain Aborigines	1
.
	新北市	Xinbei City	66
1	淡水三芝石門八里	Danshui, Sanzhi, Shimen, Bali	3
2	新莊五股泰山林口	Xinzhuang, Wugu, Taishan, Linkou	10
3	三重蘆洲	Sanchong, Luzhou	9
4	板橋	Banqiao	9
5	中和	Zhonghe	7
6	永和	Yonghe	4
7	土城樹林鶯歌三峽	Tucheng, Shulin, Yingge, Sanxia	10
8	新店深坑坪林石碇烏來	Xindian, Shenkeng, Pinglin, Shiding, Wulai	5
9	瑞芳平溪雙溪貢寮	Ruifang, Pingxi, Shuangxi, Gongliao	1
10	汐止金山萬里	Xizhi, Jinshan, Wanli	4
11	平地原住民	Plains Aborigines	3
12	山地原住民	Mountain Aborigines	1
.
	台中市	Taichung City	63
1	大甲大安外埔區	Dajia, Da’an, Waipu	3
2	清水沙鹿梧棲區	Qingshui, Shalu, Wuqi	5
3	烏日大肚龍井區	Wuri, Dadu, Longjing	5
4	后豐區	Fengyuan, Houli	5
5	潭雅神區	Tanzi, Daya, Shengang	6
6	西屯區	Xitun	5
7	南屯區	Nantun	4
8	北屯區	Beitun	6
9	北區	North	3
10	中西區	Central, West	3
11	東南區	East, South	4
12	太平區	Taiping	4
13	大里霧峰區	Dali, Wufeng	6
14	東勢石岡新社和平區	Dongshi, Shigang, Xinshe, Heping	2
15	平地原住民	Plains Aborigines	1
16	山地原住民	Mountain Aborigines	1
.
	台南市	Tainan City	57
1	白河後壁東山	Baihe, Houbi, Dongshan	2
2	新營鹽水柳營	Xinying, Yanshui, Liuying	4
3	學甲將軍北門	Xuejia, Jiangjun, Beimen	2
4	麻豆下營六甲官田	Madou, Xiaying, Liujia, Guantian	4
5	佳里西港七股	Jiali, Xigang, Qigu	3
6	善化安定	Shanhua, Anding	2
7	大內新化山上	Danei, Xinhua, Shanshang	2
8	玉井楠西南化佐鎮	Yujing, Nanxi, Nanhua, Zuozhen	1
9	永康新市	Yongkang, Xinshi	7
10	安南區	Annan	5
11	北區	North	4
12	中西區	Central-West	2
13	安平區	Anping	2
14	東區	East	6
15	南區	South	4
16	仁德歸仁關廟龍崎	Rende, Guiren, Guanmiao, Longqi	5
17	平地原住民	Plains Aborigines	1
18	山地原住民	Mountain Aborigines	1
.
	高雄市	Kaohsiung City	66
1	旗山美濃六龜甲仙杉林內門茂林三民桃源	Qishan, Meinong, Liugui, Jiaxian, Shanlin, Neimen, Maolin, Namaxia, Taoyuan	3
2	田寮阿蓮路竹湖內茄萣	Tianliao, Alian, Luzhu, Hu’nei, Qieding	4
3	岡山橋頭燕巢梓官彌陀永安	Gangshan, Qiaotou, Yanchao, Ziguan, Mituo, Yong’an	5
4	左營楠梓	Zuoying, Nanzi	8
5	大樹大社仁武鳥松	Dashu, Dashe, Renwu, Niaosong	4
6	鹽埕鼓山旗津	Yancheng, Gushan, Qijin	4
7	三民	Sanmin	8
8	新興前金苓雅	Xinxing, Qianjin, Lingya	6
9	鳳山	Fengshan	8
10	前鎮小港	Qianzhen, Xiaogang	8
11	林園大寮	Linyuan, Daliao	4
12	平地原住民	Plains Aborigines	1
13	山地原住民(那瑪夏, 旗山, 甲仙, 杉林,內門, 路竹, 內門, 梓官,彌陀,永安, 左營,楠梓, 三民)	Mountain Aborigines: Namaxia plus other areas	1
14	山地原住民(桃源, 美濃,六龜, 田寮,阿蓮, 岡山, 橋頭,燕巢, 鹽埕,鼓山, 新興,前金)	Mountain Aborigines: Taoyuan plus other areas	1
15	山地原住民(茂林, 大樹,大社,仁武,鳥松, 鳳山, 林園,大寮, 前鎮,小港,旗津, 苓雅)	Mountain Aborigines: Maolin plus other areas	1

Note that there are 3 one-seat districts for Mountain Aborigines in Kaohsiung rather than 1 three-seat district.  This is done to help insure that different tribes get a representative.  Maolin is mostly Rukai; Taoyuan is heavily Bunun, and Namaxia is mixed Bunun and Tsou.  In particular, the Rukai population is very small, and they probably wouldn’t be able to elect a Rukai representative in a three-seat district.  As it is, I wonder if there are enough non-Rukai mountain aborigines in the 11 other townships in the district to elect a non-Rukai member.

This table shows how many candidates each party plans to nominate in each city council district.  The DPP plans are taken from an official press release posted on the party website.  The KMT plans for Taipei City, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City are from the Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung party branch websites, respectively.   The PFP plans were referenced in a news story and are less authoritative.  I have not found any information on TSU or New Party nomination plans yet.

The KMT Taipei City document made no reference to nominations reserved for women, but that is not an indication that they have no plans to do so.  The DPP did not reserve any spots for women in the former Taichung County.  I am not sure if this is accurate or an oversight in the document.

I will update this table as I get new information. (Last updated: June 21)

I’m also giving each district a shortened name.  Usually this is the township or district with the largest population in the election district.

		seats
			KMT	DPP	PFP	TSU	New
D#	Taipei	63
1	Shilin	12	4	Open
2	Neihu	9	5	4*
3	Songshan	10	6	5*
4	Datong	8	4	5*
5	Wanhua	8	4	4*
6	Da’an	13	8	5*
7	PA	1	1
8	MA	1	1
.
	Xinbei	66
1	Danshui	3		1	1
2	Xinzhuang	10		5*	1
3	Sanchong	9		6*	1
4	Banqiao	9		5*	1
5	Zhonghe	7		2	1
6	Yonghe	4		2*	1
7	Tucheng	10		6*	1
8	Xindian	5		2*	1
9	Ruifang	1	0	1	1
10	Xizhi	4		2*	1
11	PA	3
12	MA	1
.
	Taichung	63
1	Dajia	3	3	1
2	Qingshui	5	3*	2
3	Dadu	5	3*	2
4	Fengyuan	5	4*	3
5	Tanzi	6	4*	3
6	Xitun	5	3*	2*
7	Nantun	4	3*	2
8	Beitun	6	4*	3*
9	North	3	2	2
10	CW	3	2	2
11	SE	4	3*	3*
12	Taiping	4	3*	2
13	Dali	6	4*	3
14	Dongshi	2	2	1
15	PA	1
16	MA	1
.
	Tainan	57
1	Baihe	2		1
2	Xinying	4		2*
3	Xuejia	2		1
4	Madou	4		2*
5	Jiali	3		3
6	Shanhua	2		1
7	Xinhua	2		1
8	Yujing	1		1
9	Yongkang	7		3*
10	Annan	5		4*
11	North	4		2*
12	C-W	2		2
13	Anping	2		2
14	East	6		3*
15	South	4		2*
16	Rende	5		3*
17	PA	1
18	MA	1
.
	Kaohsiung	66
1	Meinong	3	2	2
2	Luzhu	4	3*	3*
3	Gangshan	5	5*	2
4	Zuoying	8	5*	3
5	Dashu	4	3*	3*
6	Gushan	4	2*	2
7	Sanmin	8	5*	4*
8	Lingya	6	3*	3
9	Fengshan	8	4*	3
10	Xiaogang	8	4*	4*
11	Daliao	4	4*	2+
12	PA	1	1
13	MA: Namaxia	1	Open
14	MA: Taoyuan	1	Open
15	MA: Maolin	1	Opem

* includes at least one female

+ if KMT only nominates one female, DPP will nominate a third, female candidate

grassroots elections

I haven’t had anything to say recently.  This is strange.  What is even stranger is that we just had an election, and I’m completely uninterested.   The election was the really, really grassroots election for village heads and township representatives.  You can win one of these posts with just a few hundred votes.  The vote buying in some of the local elections was heavy.  The newspaper was quoting prices from NT3000-5000 in close races.  In Jinmen, some votes were reportedly worth NT30,000 in a particularly intense race.  That includes the price airfare.  (Pay attention: That was a Jinmen reference!)

The DPP made some modest gains in the township representatives and very minor gains in the village head elections.  Since these positions are overwhelmingly held by the KMT, DPP gains are hardly surprising.  But political parties matter very little at this level.   (Hard to believe I said that, given (a) the supposed importance of these positions in campaign organizations for higher-level elections, and (b) I have a paper in which I explicitly argue that county assembly elections (which on the surface seem equally devoid of partisanship) are in fact heavily partisan.)  Let’s revise: these elections certainly matter collectively, but there are so many of them that no individual election matters very much.  Also, there is simply too much in too many soap operas for us to understand.

I’ll make an effort at county assembly and city council elections; these are just too small.

ECFA and Jason Hu

There have been two big news stories in recent days that have the potential to fundamentally alter this year’s elections.  First, the TSU’s petition for a referendum on ECFA was rejected by the reviewing committee.  The DPP has declared all-out war.  I don’t know exactly what this means (and so far it isn’t very much), but if the DPP gets too radical, it could marginalize itself.  On the other hand, there isn’t exactly a groundswell of support for ECFA.  The DPP simply shouldn’t overplay its hand.

Second, Jason Hu has trouble with organized crime in Taichung.  This is the kind of development that could derail his re-election campaign.  It isn’t a big enough story to do that yet, but if we keep hearing new angles to this story and we are still talking about it in two or three months, all bets are off.  Public safety and local elections are a nightmare combination for the KMT.  On the other hand, 2010 doesn’t feel much like 1997 in several ways.  In 1997 there had been public anger building about organized crime in politics for several years.  The Bai Xiaoyan case simply focused that anger.  And when Chen Jinxing stormed the South African embassy one week before the election, the public could hardly help but think about public safety and organized crime when they cast their votes.  (Aside: If you don’t know the history of 1997, this paragraph is probably very confusing.)  The current case will have to grow a lot before we approach those levels.

I feel like Mr. Obvious today.