Yesterday the United Daily News published a massive poll (466<n<749 for each county) in which it assessed satisfaction with the performance of Taiwan’s local county executives. Most of us have no hard data to determine which local executives have done a good job, so we go on much less obvious and much less reliable cues, such as what the taxi drivers tell us, the tone of media reports, your friend’s uncle’s story, and so on. The UDN is a hard piece of data. It is an aggregation of a lot of people’s feelings, rather than a single person’s feelings. As such, this is the type of poll that gets cited in election campaigns, either to crow about one’s fantastic performance or to attack the incumbent for a dismal job.
The media (and lots of media outlets are commenting on this poll, not just the UDN) focus has been on two things. First, the headline was the individual winners (Chen Ju) and losers (Huang Zhongsheng). Second, the DPP executives did better as a group than the KMT executives.
Methodologically, I have a small question. Today, the UDN published another question from this same poll on whether residents in the various cities and counties think their locality is a suitable place to live or not. The Greater Taipei area graded out much lower than anywhere else. I wonder which of these questions they asked first. That is, which question polluted the other one? It is probably no coincidence that Hao Longbin, Zhou Xiwei, and Zhang Tongrong all got fairly low marks and also that Taipei City, Taipei County, and Jilong City were all deemed relatively unlivable.
Here are the results of the poll:
|Kaohsiung City||Chen Ju||陳菊||direct||DPP||75||10|
|Miaoli County||Liu Zhenghong||劉政鴻||re-elected||KMT||73||7|
|Kaohsiung County||Yang Qiuxing||楊秋興||direct||DPP||72||7|
|Chiayi City||Huang Minhui||黃敏惠||Re-elected||KMT||67||13|
|Changhua County||Zhuo Boyuan||卓伯元||Re-elected||KMT||64||8|
|Taichung City||Jason Hu||胡志強||direct||KMT||63||20|
|Tainan City||Xu Tiancai||許添財||direct||DPP||62||16|
|Pingdong County||Cai Qihong||曹啟鴻||Re-elected||DPP||61||10|
|Hualian County||Fu Kunqi||傅崑萁||new||IND||61||8|
|Yunlin County||Su Zhifen||蘇治芬||Re-elected||DPP||61||10|
|Penghu County||Wang Qianfa||王乾發||Re-elected||KMT||53||21|
|Jinmen County||Li Wotu||李沃土||new||KMT||53||7|
|Taidong County||Huang Jianting||黃健庭||new||KMT||52||11|
|Jilong City||Zhang Tongrong||張通榮||Re-elected||KMT||51||21|
|Tainan County||Su Huanzhi||蘇煥智||direct||DPP||51||21|
|Taipei City||Hao Longbin||郝龍斌||direct||KMT||50||28|
|Nantou County||Li Chaoqing||李朝卿||Re-elected||KMT||50||18|
|Lianjiang County||Yang Suisheng||楊綏生||new||KMT||50||23|
|Chiayi County||Zhang Huaguan||張花冠||new||DPP||49||6|
|Ilan County||Lin Congxian||林聰賢||new||DPP||46||6|
|Taipei County||Zhou Xiwei||周錫瑋||direct||KMT||44||27|
|Taoyuan County||Wu Zhiyang||吳志揚||new||KMT||44||8|
|Hsinchu City||Xu Mingcai||許明財||new||KMT||42||10|
|Hsinchu County||Qiu Jingchun||邱鏡淳||new||KMT||38||20|
|Taichung County||Huang Zhongsheng||黃仲生||direct||KMT||37||25|
UDN classified executives into three different statuses. Newly elected executives were elected last November, so they have only been in office for about six months. They typically have low satisfaction but also low dissatisfaction ratings, as voters are still forming opinions about their performance in office. There are two exceptions. Both Yang Suisheng in Lianjiang County and Qiu Jingchun in Hsinchu County have high dissatisfaction ratings. The KMT blew a by-election in Hsinchu a couple of months ago, and KMT supporters might still be mad at Qiu for that there. In Lianjiang, I have no clue what is going on, but Lianjiang only has a few thousand residents, so they probably all know through the gossip networks if Yang has done anything bad.
The second group of executives includes those who were re-elected last November, while the third group includes executives from counties and cities that already are or will become direct municipalities later this year. Most of these executives have been in office for 4.5 years (four have been in for 8.5 years), so opinions have already had time to form on them.
Note the discrepancies in satisfaction ratings by party. Among the direct municipalities, DPP members Chen Ju and Yang Qiuxing were the best. Jason Hu and Xu Tiancai had roughly equivalent ratings, but the KMT eagerly nominated Hu for another term while the DPP dumped Xu in favor of a better candidate. Likewise, Hao Longbin is roughly in the same ballpark as Su Huanzhi, but the former will be running as a KMT candidate while the latter could not make it as a DPP candidate. Bringing up the rear are the two miserable KMT executives, Zhou Xiwei and Huang Zhongsheng. Of course, there is more to performance than satisfaction ratings, but this certainly doesn’t make the KMT look good.
Tags: Cao Qihong, Chen Ju, Fu Kunqi, Hao Longbin, Huang Jianting, Huang Minhui, Huang Zhongsheng, Jason Hu, Li Chaoqing, Li Wotu, Lin Congxian, Liu Zhenghong, Qiu Jingchun, Su Huanzhi, Su Zhifen, Wang Qianfa, Wu Zhiyang, Xu Mingcai, Xu Tiancai, Yang Qiuxing, Yang Suisheng, Zhang Huaguan, Zhang Tongrong, Zhou Xiwei, Zhuo Boyuan