A few unrelated thoughts.
Premier Wu Dunyi 吳敦義 seems to have settled into his job. During his first couple of months with American beef and the like, it seemed to me that he wouldn’t last a full year. The last two or three months, though, he seems much more in command. I’m moving him from zombie status (effectively dead but still stumbling around) up to vampire status (he has arisen from his coffin, dressed up nicely, and has an outside shot at seducing the beautiful electorate). (Maybe I should lay off the analogies.)
I watched an hourlong one on one interview with Yang Qiuxing 楊秋興 on TV last night. I came away with the impression of Yang as a sincere, hardworking, and simple guy who knows everything about agriculture and not much about anything else. All he could talk about was farmers, farming, growing up on a farm, marketing farm produce, and how ECFA would be bad for farmers. Fine, but aren’t there a few people in Greater Kaohsiung who are not farmers? (It reminded me of Bob Kerry running for the Democratic nomination for president in 1992: his answer to every question, from nuclear arsenals to education policy to tax reform was health care, health care, health care.) The other thing that struck me about the interview was the three minutes in which he talked about how intense the primary campaign has been. He downplayed it completely, saying he didn’t think it was that bad at all, that he was just providing information to the party central office about all those abuses, and that he and Chen Ju 陳菊 would certainly cooperate to support the winner. There must have been a serious backlash against his earlier tactics. Also, Cai Yingwen’s 蔡英文 gambit — telling him to cool it — has paid off. I think he is changing courses because the strident strategy didn’t work, but she will get some credit for refereeing and keeping the competition under control.
Liu Quanzhong 劉銓忠 has announced he is running for Taichung mayor. Liu is a legislator with decades of political experience, the younger brother of former legislative speaker Liu Songfan 劉松藩, and, most importantly, one of the most senior leaders in the Taichung County Red Faction. This means that both the Red and Black factions have someone contesting the nomination. It is still nearly unthinkable that anyone other than Jason Hu 胡志強 is going to win the nomination, so why are they fighting an unwinnable fight? I think I have overlooked how becoming a direct municipality is going to affect local factions. Control of budgets is the lifeblood of local factions. Currently, they prosper when they control the county executive, and they build grassroots strength by winning township mayors, agricultural and irrigation cooperatives, and county assembly seats. The two biggest pillars, county executives and township mayors, will be disappearing after this year. Of course, if they could win the Greater Taichung mayorship with its enormous budget, all would be peachy. So even though the odds are slim, there is probably tremendous grassroots pressure to try. From that angle, Ma would be foolish to give in. He has a chance to end the Faustian bargain with Taichung local factions. There might be a cost in votes in 2012, but he will never have a better chance to deal the local factions a fatal blow.