KMT nomination procedure for Kaohsiung

KMT secretary general Jin Pucong 金溥聰 went to Kaohsiung yesterday, met with various influential people and potential candidates, and announced how the KMT would conduct its nomination process.  The KMT will use a two round telephone survey procedure.  In the first round, they will do one survey in Kaohsiung City to find the strongest candidate among politicians hailing from the city.  They will do another survey for Kaohsiung County politicians.  In the second round, they will pit the two winners against each other.  However, they expressly reserved the right to throw the whole thing out and draft someone else if the eventual winner trails the DPP candidates by too much in the polls.  They expect to have a nominee by April 19.

The candidates in Kaohsiung County will be legislators Lin Yishi 林益世, Zhong Shaohe 鍾紹和, Jiang Lingjun 江玲君, and vice-speaker Lu Shumei 陸淑美.  The candidates in Kaohsiung City will include legislators Hou Caifeng 侯彩鳳, Qiu Yi 邱毅, Huang Zhaoshun 黃昭順, former head of the Taipei City Bureau of Labor Affairs Su Yinggui 蘇盈貴, deputy secretary general of the presidential office Lai Fengwei 賴峰偉, and possibly speaker Zhuang Qiwang 莊啟旺.

Well, I guess this is a creative way to sift through the candidates.  I don’t know that it is reasonable in any sort of rational expectations logic to have separate contests for the county and city, but if it is acceptable to the participants, I suppose that is what matters.

Now, it just so happens that TVBS conducted a poll on this race just last week.  They pit both Chen Ju 陳菊 and Yang Qiuxing 楊秋興 against a litany of possible KMT opponents.  I reproduce the results below.

陳菊  Chen Ju vs.				楊秋興Yang Qiuxing vs.
.				.
	Chen	KMT			Yang	KMT
胡志強 Jason Hu	46	37		胡志強 Jason Hu	43	38
吳敦義 Wu Dunyi	55	34		吳敦義 Wu Dunyi	52	35
王金平 Wang Jinping	55	26		王金平 Wang Jinping	52	25
黃昭順 Huang Zhaoshun	58	28		黃昭順 Huang Zhaoshun	54	30
吳伯雄 Wu Boxiong	56	25		吳伯雄 Wu Boxiong	54	25
黃俊英 Huang Junying	60	26		黃俊英 Huang Junying	56	27
邱毅     Qiu Yi	62	26		邱毅     Qiu Yi	62	24
賴峰偉 Lai Fengwei	67	18		賴峰偉 Lai Fengwei	63	18
盛治仁 Sheng Zhiren	68	17		盛治仁 Sheng Zhiren	64	17
莊啟旺 Zhuang Qiwang	68	16		莊啟旺 Zhuang Qiwang	65	16

You will probably notice a few things.  First, no matter who the KMT and DPP nominees are, the DPP always wins.  Second, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between Chen Ju and Yang Qiuxing (which is probably one reason the DPP side of this race is so intense – it might be closer than I realize).  Third, the top three KMT candidates in this poll aren’t going to be running in the race.  The best candidate (Huang Zhaoshun) on this list and also in Jin Pucong’s list of people to be included in the KMT’s primary loses by 25-30 points.  No wonder the KMT is so pessimistic about this race.

Methodologically, I am fascinated by the lack of difference between Chen and Yang, and also the consistency in the KMT rankings.  On the one hand, I can imagine the bored interviewee being asked about pairing after pairing (“Chen Ju vs a banana peel?  Chen Ju.  Chen Ju vs Buddha? Chen Ju.  Chen Ju vs. Hitler? Chen Ju.  Wait, did you just say banana peel??”)[1] So part of me is not surprised that “the DPP person” had similar results whether it was Chen or Yang.  Yet, somehow the aggregate numbers produce a ranking among the KMT candidates that strikes me as entirely reasonable.

Anyway, one thing that this poll does tell me is that we can probably rule out the dark horse candidates, like Lai Fengwei and Su Yinggui.  If you haven’t ever proven an ability to get votes before, this isn’t the place for you.  The likely finalists are the legislators (as usual): Huang Zhaoshun, and perhaps Qiu Yi in Kaohsiung City, and Lin Yishi and Zhong Shaohe in Kaohsiung County.

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[1] I once got a free sandwich from Subway.  The only catch was that I had to complete their interview afterwards.  First, how about the bread? On a scale of one to five, how was your overall satisfaction with the bread?  On a scale of one to five, how was your satisfaction with the taste of the bread? On a scale of one to five, how was your satisfaction with the texture of the bread? On a scale of one to five, how was your satisfaction with the freshness of the bread? On a scale of one to five, how was your satisfaction with the quantity of the bread?  Second, how about the meat?  How was your overall satisfaction with the meat?  How was your satisfaction with the taste of the meat? How was your satisfaction with the texture of the meat? How was your satisfaction with the freshness of the meat? How was your satisfaction with the quantity of the meat? Third, how about the vegetables? …  Fourth, how about the condiments? … Fifth, how about the cheese? …  Sixth, how about the overall sandwich? …  I think I started answering “3” to everything about four or five questions in.

Tags: Chen Ju, Kaohsiung City, primary, Yang Qiuxing